Severe Thunderstorm Warning 716, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
WILL BE IN THIS LOCATION MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SPREADS EAST TOWARD ARKANSAS RAIN
CHANCES WILL AGAIN DIMINISH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. BEST RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER AND NEAR THE AREA...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WHERE THE
SUN GETS THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY HEAT UP. DEW POINTS WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NOT MUCH CHG IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS THRU
THE PD. A WEAKNESS /SHEAR AXIS/ WL FORM IN THE FLAT UPR RDG IN PLACE
ACRS THE MID SOUTH HEADING INTO THU AND FRI. THIS WL ALLOW MAINLY
SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR THE FA THOSE DAYS.

THE UPR RDG IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS
THE SRN PLAINS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WL GREATLY DIMINISH
OUR CHCS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE REGARDING
TEMPS THRU THE PD...DUE MAINLY TO THE UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE OF THE EFFECTS OF CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. HEAT ADVYS
WL LIKELY BE CONTD THRU MUCH OF THE PD AS AFTN INDICES HOVER BETWEEN
105 AND 110 DEGREES MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  97  76  96 /  30  40  20  10
CAMDEN AR         77  99  76  98 /  30  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       75  95  74  95 /  20  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  99  77  99 /  30  30  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  99  77  97 /  30  40  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     76  97  76  96 /  30  40  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      77 100  77  99 /  20  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  95  74  95 /  20  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  97  76  96 /  30  40  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     77  98  77  97 /  30  40  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  98  76  98 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         77  99  76  97 /  30  40  20  20
STUTTGART AR      77  99  77  97 /  30  40  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS OVER 100.
THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS...AND AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE IN MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE EACH DAY.

ALSO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HEAT MAY BE SEEN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

63

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