Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL START MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...
WHILE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT AS IT
SAGS SE THROUGH AR TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH S TO SW WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT ALL TAFS WITH SW
WINDS REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND
RAIN. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WITH
GUSTS OVER OVER 20 KNOTS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE STATE
THIS EVENING AND PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF THE STATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

YET ANOTHER MUDDLED...DIFFICULT CONVECTIVE FCST FOR THE NATURAL
STATE AS SEVERAL POSITIVE SVR WX PARAMETERS BATTLE WITH SOME
NEGATIVE TIMING AND A STAUNCH CAPPING INVERSION.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A LEAD IMPULSE IS MOVING EAST IN FAST UPR FLOW
OVER TX AND SHOULD IMPACT AR THROUGH ABOUT 13Z THIS AM. AT THE SAME
TIME...H5 HEIGHT FALLS HAVE COMMENCED WITH A 40-50 METER FALLS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A FOCUSED AREA OF MSTR POOLING HAS
RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING 3000 J/KG NEAR MENA AND THE LEAD
IMPULSE IS APPROACHING...AS SEEN BY THE STORMS NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...A
SVR TSTRM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AS THEY STRUGGLE TO
TAP THE BNDRY LAYER. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS GUSTY WINDS
HAVE KEPT THE BNDRY LAYER MIXED OVERNIGHT AND UPR FORCING COULD
REMOVE ENOUGH CAPPING FOR STORMS TO TEMPORARILY BECOME SFC BASED.
CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD SFC BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE MID
MORNING...AFTER A FEW HRS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FROM MID MORNING ON...A VERY POWERFUL H5 JET WILL PUMP BULK SHEAR
VALUES THROUGH THE ROOF LATER WITH 60-70KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IMPINGING
ON THE NWRN EDGE OF A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHERE WILL
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WHEN DIURNAL HTG ALLOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING BOUT OF
SCATTERED/CLUSTERED CONVECTION...CONDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
THREAT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE I30/US67 CORRIDOR... WHERE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE LINE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
AREAS E OF I30/US67 WILL BE ABOUT 10AM-3PM. BEYOND 3PM...EVERYTHING
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE CWA.

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTS TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND POST FRONTAL WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE
QUITE STRONG.

THOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY EARLY MON NIGHT THEY WILL DIE DOWN
LATER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AFTER 06Z. THIS...COMBINED WITH
VERY LOW SFC DEWPTS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TANKING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MANY PLACES. DUE TO THE EVENT BEING
MARGINAL...HAVE OPTED TO FORGO A FREEZE WATCH ATTM...BUT A FEW
PLACES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 32F BY EARLY TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS.

REST OF FCST FROM TUE ON LOOKS ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL MAINLY HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY
DUE TO A MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS OVER THE AREA...AND WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER AR FROM THE SW UPPER FLOW. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SW U.S. IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE E THEN NE AND SPREAD A BIT
MORE ENERGY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TREND IS MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OVER WESTERN TO NORTHERN AR...WITH LESS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND HOW FAR EAST IF WILL MAKE IT...SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POP IS WHAT WE WILL GO WITH THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS IS MOVE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF. OTHERWISE TOWARD
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS DO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS MAY BRING A BIT MORE
ENERGY TO AR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EXCEPT IN
THOSE AREAS THAT MAY RECEIVE RAIN FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  35  63  44 /  80  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  36  70  45 /  80  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       59  32  65  43 /  80   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  36  67  45 /  80  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  37  67  45 /  80  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  37  67  44 /  90  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  33  67  44 /  80   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  33  65  43 /  80   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        72  35  62  44 /  80  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  38  66  44 /  80  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  32  68  42 /  80   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         72  35  64  41 /  80  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      73  38  64  45 /  80  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...63 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS TODAY AND
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN AS DAYTIME HEATING
DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT MUCH OF ARKANSAS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND
SPEEDS FROM 10 TO 25 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS.

EARLY TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF ARKANSAS AND TAKE
THE RAIN WITH IT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S STATEWIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MAINLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED LATER TODAY TO THE EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59

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