Severe Thunderstorm Warning 588, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
QUITE A BUSY SCENE AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE AND MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH...AN MCV OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A SYSTEM BEHIND THAT ONE OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...AND OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

18Z LZK SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT ANY CU
FROM FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CU
HAS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE DELTA REGION AND THE SOUTH...WHERE OUTFLOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS.

STILL..WITH THE WARM SECTOR ADVANCING NORTHWARD...INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER...COLLAPSING CORES COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 60-70
MPH WIND GUST AND DAMAGE. ALSO...SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD AID IN ANY STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE AREA...AND WILL
PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM COMPLEXES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER RETURNS...AND WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OUT IN THE PLAINS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE GRADIENT WILL BE ELEVATED...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HOT WEATHER MAKES A RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
MOST LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AROUND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONG TERM PD WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
MOVE THE NATURAL STATE AWAY FROM THE HOT...DRY WX AND TOWARD COOLER
TEMPS AND RAINY WX.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DRY AND HOT DAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE MUCH DIFF WX TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
AN IMPRESSIVE PUNCH OF EPAC ENERGY WILL FORCE A PATTERN CHANGE FROM
OUR RECENT UPR RIDGING TO A PATTERN FEATURING THE KIND OF PERTURBED
SW UPR FLOW THAT CAN GET US INTO TROUBLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.  AND BY
TROUBLE...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AS AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE OHIO
AND MS VALLEYS. NOW GRANTED...WE ARE NEARLY A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS
EVENT...BUT SIGNS ARE REALLY STARTING TO POINT TOWARD A RAINY PERIOD
FROM LATE TUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FCST AS FURTHER
DETAILS ARE RESOLVED.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RAINY PERIOD WILL MEAN COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S FROM WED ON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  93  72  94 /  40  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  92  72  93 /  60  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  96  76  95 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  97  75  96 /  40  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  98  75  98 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  92  72  95 /  40  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        72  96  74  96 /  40  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  94  75  96 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  94  71  96 /  40  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  75  95 /  40  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
258 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ANOTHER STORM
COMPLEX MAY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH VIRTUALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
ONLY REAL CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP UP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A PINE BLUFF TO HOT SPRINGS LINE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56/63

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
434 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

ARZ047-162220-
MONROE AR-
434 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTHEAST OF CROCKETTS BLUFF...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PALMER...             RAGTOWN...            PINE CITY...
  LAWRENCEVILLE...      SIMPSON LAKE...       MAYOS...
  LAMBERT BAYOU...      KANSAS LAKE...
  HOLLY GROVE MUNI ARPT...                    DEEP ELM...
  ADAMS BAYOU...

&&

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3438 9112 3440 9113 3441 9116 3444 9117
      3445 9121 3448 9121 3449 9125 3452 9125
      3469 9105 3448 9104 3448 9099 3446 9098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 235DEG 20KT 3449 9112

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
438 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             CADES                   34.02N 91.59W
06/16/2011  E1.25 INCH       LINCOLN            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

58

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