Severe Thunderstorm Warning 569, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
QUITE A BUSY SCENE AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE AND MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH...AN MCV OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A SYSTEM BEHIND THAT ONE OVER KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...AND OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.

18Z LZK SPECIAL SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE MORNING STORM COMPLEX HAS KEPT ANY CU
FROM FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...CU
HAS CONTINUED TO FORM IN THE DELTA REGION AND THE SOUTH...WHERE OUTFLOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS.

STILL..WITH THE WARM SECTOR ADVANCING NORTHWARD...INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO GENERATE MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER...COLLAPSING CORES COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 60-70
MPH WIND GUST AND DAMAGE. ALSO...SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD AID IN ANY STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL EXPAND BACK INTO THE AREA...AND WILL
PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM COMPLEXES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...DRY WEATHER RETURNS...AND WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OUT IN THE PLAINS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THE GRADIENT WILL BE ELEVATED...WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HOT WEATHER MAKES A RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
MOST LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AROUND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE LONG TERM PD WILL FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
MOVE THE NATURAL STATE AWAY FROM THE HOT...DRY WX AND TOWARD COOLER
TEMPS AND RAINY WX.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DRY AND HOT DAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE A
BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE MUCH DIFF WX TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
AN IMPRESSIVE PUNCH OF EPAC ENERGY WILL FORCE A PATTERN CHANGE FROM
OUR RECENT UPR RIDGING TO A PATTERN FEATURING THE KIND OF PERTURBED
SW UPR FLOW THAT CAN GET US INTO TROUBLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.  AND BY
TROUBLE...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AS AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE OHIO
AND MS VALLEYS. NOW GRANTED...WE ARE NEARLY A WEEK AWAY FROM THIS
EVENT...BUT SIGNS ARE REALLY STARTING TO POINT TOWARD A RAINY PERIOD
FROM LATE TUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FCST AS FURTHER
DETAILS ARE RESOLVED.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RAINY PERIOD WILL MEAN COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S FROM WED ON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  93  72  94 /  40  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  92  72  93 /  60  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  96  76  95 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  97  75  96 /  40  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  98  75  98 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  92  72  95 /  40  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        72  96  74  96 /  40  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  94  75  96 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  94  71  96 /  40  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  75  95 /  40  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...63

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