Severe Thunderstorm Warning 522, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW PERSISTENCE TO RULE...WITH SKC AND
OCCASIONAL HAZE AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO MORE WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

BASICALLY SAME STORY AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF AR. SKIES
WERE CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED CU WERE STARTING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AR. TEMPS HAD WARMED WELL INTO
THE 90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S ALREADY SEEN ACROSS ERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AR THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE DEGREES
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS PROBABLY NEARING OR
CROSSING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK ACROSS ERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AR. HEAT ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
AS HEAT INDICES REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 105 DEGREE CRITERIA.

THE HEAT WAVE SHOWS VERY LITTLE SIGNS OF LEAVING IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PARKED OVER SOME
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INTO A GOOD
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL WOBBLE A BIT WEST
FOR SUN...BUT TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR
SUN AFTERNOON...SO HAVE MENTIONED LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING WEST. OTHERWISE...DO EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF AR TO REMAIN
DRY PRECIP WISE.

THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED JUST WEST OF AR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPS MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THESE EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL
LIKELY GO UN-NOTICED AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL IN THE 90S. SOME
GOOD NEWS IS THAT DEWPTS HAVE BECOME STEADILY LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH DEWPTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES
JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF AR...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE
UPPER 90S TO JUST BELOW 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STILL UNCOMFORTABLE TO SAY THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S TO A FEW
100 DEGREE READINGS...WHILE MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S WITH SOME 70S.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH A LOW CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER PART OF THE RIDGE.
THURSDAY THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BUILD JUST A BIT OVER AR AND KEEPS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY NORTH OF AR...WITH AGAIN VERY LOW CHANCES. FRIDAY
IS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH LIMITED SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT SOME
HINT AT POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INTO SATURDAY MODELS
GRADUALLY PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND ADDITIONAL AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY REACH AR. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
AND HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCES. WITH LATER RUNS A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. MODELS ALSO HINT
AT LOW QPF THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...58