Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS THAT PRODUCE NON-SEVERE HAIL...BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.

PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE STATE AS A WARM
FRONT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY...WARMING WILL BE NOTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST SATURDAY...WITH RETURN
FLOW MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE FOR SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OVER THE STATE.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO MONDAY...AS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP TO THE WEST. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND THE FASTER EURO WITH THE SLOWER GFS...WHICH WILL
KEEP POPS IN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE
SWINGS CONTINUING TO MARK THIS SPRING SEASON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  57  37  58 /  70  10  40  40
CAMDEN AR         44  63  39  66 /  80  10  30  30
HARRISON AR       34  53  37  59 /  50  10  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    42  61  39  63 /  60  20  40  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  60  41  62 /  70  20  40  40
MONTICELLO AR     46  62  42  65 /  80  10  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      38  59  37  62 /  50  20  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  56  38  61 /  60  10  40  40
NEWPORT AR        37  58  38  60 /  70  10  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     42  59  41  63 /  80  10  40  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   40  58  40  62 /  50  20  40  40
SEARCY AR         39  57  40  60 /  70  10  40  40
STUTTGART AR      41  57  41  61 /  80  10  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT ARKANSAS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STATEWIDE. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF ARKANSAS...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE NATURAL STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
323 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

ARZ016-024-025-292110-
CLEBURNE AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-
323 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE...SOUTHERN
INDEPENDENCE AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF BANNER...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
MELROSE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWPORT...            DIAZ...               TUCKERMAN...
  SWIFTON...            SALADO...             PLEASANT PLAINS...
  OIL TROUGH...         NEWARK...             MAGNESS...
  JACKSONPORT...        GRUBBS...             CONCORD...
  SULPHUR ROCK...       ROSIE...              MACKS...
  KENYON...             HUTCHINSON...         HUFF...

LAT...LON 3553 9168 3554 9179 3551 9180 3550 9184
      3567 9190 3590 9108 3589 9103 3566 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 253DEG 45KT 3561 9175

46

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