Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
641 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS...
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS. WITH
COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING
PEA SIZED HAIL. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE
CLOUD SHIELD THAT WILL HAVE TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH ARKANSAS
MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS RIPPLES IN
SHRTWV ZONAL FLOW KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED. A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SHRTWV
SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WED NIGHT...LIKELY BEGINNING
A TRANSITION TO A BIT QUIETER WEATHER.

LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ABOVE SFC INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN
NEARLY EVERY UPDRAFT DUE TO LOW WET BULB ZERO TEMPS AND VERY COOL
NEAR SFC TEMPS THAT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH MELTING OF SMALL
HAIL/GRAUPEL. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY LIQUID
OVER NRN AR...BUT A FEW SLEET/GRAUPEL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL INCLUDE A SLGHT CHC FOR SLEET IN THE FAR
NORTH.

PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A DRY DAY
IN STORE FOR MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS COULD
BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT.

PRECIP CHCS WILL RETURN TO THE FCST BY LATE MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RIPPLES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...
SFC FEATURES LOOK WEAK AND THEREFORE SFC RETURN FLOW COULD BE
LIMITED...RESULTING IN BEST CHCS FOR SVR WX IN THE SRN PARTS OF THE
STATE. OF COURSE...ELEVATED CONVECTION...SIMILAR TO YDAY AND
TODAY...COULD BE OF CONCERN DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK.

COOLER...DRIER AIR APPEARS HEADED TO THE STATE FOR WED...THOUGH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DIVE IN BY WED NIGHT AND BRING PRECIP CHCS BACK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WITH A DEEPENED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING IN THE NW
UPPER FLOW INTO AR. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DOES MOVE OVER THE AREA AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS IN THE FORECAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED LATER WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. OVERALL DRY ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BACK TO AR. SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN MODEL RUNS AND THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED LATER. USED A GFS AND ECMWF BLEND...FAVORING THE GFS A BIT
MORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  56  39  51 /  40  10  20  60
CAMDEN AR         42  63  48  65 /  60  10  20  40
HARRISON AR       31  55  37  48 /  30  10  40  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    39  60  46  58 /  40  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  59  45  56 /  50  10  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     42  64  48  66 /  70  10  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      36  59  45  57 /  30  10  20  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  56  37  49 /  30  10  20  70
NEWPORT AR        35  57  39  52 /  60  10  20  60
PINE BLUFF AR     40  60  45  61 /  70  10  10  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  59  44  55 /  30  10  20  70
SEARCY AR         35  56  41  54 /  50  10  20  60
STUTTGART AR      37  58  44  58 /  70  10  10  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
315 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT
RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATES...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL.

ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY MORNING...WHERE A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MID
SOUTH STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF ARKANSAS...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
BACK TO THE NATURAL STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
KEEP THE AREA IN A SOMEWHAT COOL AIRMASS. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

224

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