Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
658 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

.AVIATION...

AS OF 00Z...A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. SCT TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVER
ERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WRN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED SMALL STORMS AS
FAR EAST AS KHOT AND KLIT VICINITY. EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST. KPBF AND KLLQ WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL 05Z OR SO. AM NOT SURE EXACTLY WHEN
STORMS WILL CLEAR SITES FOR GOOD SO HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING VCTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR 2SM VSBY AND -TSRA.
BEHIND THE FRONT SKIES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS AND WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE WEST. WILL LEAVE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES AT VFR
LEVELS FROM ESSENTIALLY 10Z ONWARD. AT KBPK AND KHRO
HOWEVER...AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS BETWEEN 08-15Z...WNW FLOW
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO THOSE TERMINALS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

TWO STORIES TO BE TOLD IN THE SHORT TERM. STORY NUMBER ONE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STORY NUMBER TWO IS THE APRIL-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND.

STORY NUMBER 1...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
THE PICTURE IS STILL A BIT HAZY IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK MID LVL WAVE CONTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NATURAL STATE FROM THE SW. ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE IS AN UPR JET
IMPULSE THAT IS ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPR LOW THAT IS SITUATED IN
NRN KS ATTM. BROAD SPEED/DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE ATOP AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN OK. IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS MUDDLED THINGS A BIT. LATEST
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE CAPPING THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED OVER CEN PARTS OF AR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN THROUGH 00Z IN
LIGHT OF THIS INFORMATION. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN ERN OK OR THE ARKLATEX REGION BTW 21-00Z
AS LFC/S HAVE FALLEN BELOW 1000M IN THESE AREAS. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ENE INTO THE STATE WITH A RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION OF
15-25KTS INITIALLY. THE BEST SVR CHCS FOR THE KLZK CWA WILL LIKELY
BE BTW 00Z-06Z WITH DMG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS BUT ANY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED ALONG WEAK SFC BNDRYS. BEGINNING AROUND
03-04Z...SVR WIND CHCS WILL WANE AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP.
UNLIKE THE APRIL 2011 NIGHTTIME EVENTS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE
AS WELL MIXED DUE TO LACK OF LOW LVL FLOW AND THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD THEREFORE BE STRONGER AND MORE INHIBITIVE TO DMG
WIND GUSTS.

AFTER LINGERING RAIN CHCS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS COULD FIRE OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MAINLY S AND E OF THE I30-US67 CORRIDOR. WEAKENING DYNAMICS SHOULD
MAKE FOR ONLY A MARGINAL SVR THREAT FRI AFTERNOON.

STORY NUMBER 2...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE DOMINATED BY CLOUDY MORNINGS AND PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOONS AS LOW
LVL MSTR ALLOWS DIURNAL LOW STRATUS TO FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN FAR NRN AND NERN AR WHERE SKIES
SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
THE UPR LOW. TEMPS WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN
THE COOLEST PLACES SUN AND MON MORNING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

I DOUBT FEW PEOPLE WOULD HAVE ANY COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THE IFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INVOF THE MID SOUTH
AND OHIO VALLEY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST EARLY
ON...STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH
AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  63  76  53 /  40  60  50  40
CAMDEN AR         84  65  82  54 /  40  60  40  20
HARRISON AR       82  58  68  47 /  40  60  50  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  64  77  53 /  40  60  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  65  79  54 /  40  60  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  84  56 /  40  60  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      82  61  75  50 /  40  60  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  60  72  50 /  40  60  50  40
NEWPORT AR        85  64  77  53 /  40  60  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     87  66  79  56 /  40  60  50  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  61  75  49 /  40  60  30  20
SEARCY AR         86  63  78  54 /  40  60  50  40
STUTTGART AR      88  65  80  55 /  40  60  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS WATER SLOWLY
RECEDES. MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS REMAIN OUT OF THEIR BANKS ACROSS THE
STATE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AN UPPER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN
THE PREVAILING UPPER FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES IT ROUGHLY HALF
WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MORNING. AS OF NOW...ROUGHLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST. MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED...BUT THE WATER WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE. MANY AREA ROADS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS REMAIN CLOSED. INDIVIDUALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON RIVER
LEVELS.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN FOR
THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDIVIDUALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1124 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ014-016-024-025-032>034-130510-
CLEBURNE AR-FAULKNER AR-INDEPENDENCE AR-JACKSON AR-STONE AR-WHITE
AR-WOODRUFF AR-
1124 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLEBURNE...WHITE...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN STONE...EXTREME WESTERN WOODRUFF...EASTERN FAULKNER...
SOUTHWESTERN INDEPENDENCE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BUFFALO HUMP TO NEAR ENOLA TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAYLOR...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEARCY...             HEBER SPRINGS...      GREERS FERRY LAKE...
  WEST POINT...         VILONIA...            STEPROCK...
  ROSE BUD...           QUITMAN...            PRYOR...
  PANGBURN...           MT VERNON...          MCRAE...
  KENSETT...            JUDSONIA...           HURRICANE LAKE WMA...
  HIGGINSON...          GREERS FERRY DAM...   GRAVEL HILL...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3507 9201 3507 9211 3504 9213 3502 9222
      3517 9226 3537 9228 3537 9225 3542 9225
      3576 9190 3548 9159 3520 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 255DEG 38KT 3532 9217 3519 9215
          3514 9213

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ034-045>047-056-057-130525-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-LONOKE AR-MONROE AR-PRAIRIE AR-WOODRUFF AR-
1140 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WOODRUFF...
PRAIRIE...EASTERN LONOKE...WESTERN MONROE...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
BAYOU METO TO 3 MILES NORTH OF RYAN TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF RYAN...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LONOKE...             HAZEN...              ULM...
  STUTTGART MUNI ARPT...                      SISEMORE...
  ROE...                PRAIRIE CENTER...     PEPPERS LANDING...
  PARKERS CORNER...     MCCREANOR...          HUMNOKE...
  HALLSVILLE...         FREDONIA (BISCOE)...  DES ARC...
  DE VALLS BLUFF...     CARLISLE...           BRUMMITT...
  BARRETTSVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 172 AND 206.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3502 9138 3477 9132 3455 9132 3441 9190
      3458 9189 3487 9195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 246DEG 27KT 3475 9187 3459 9183
          3446 9183

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

ARZ046-056-057-130540-
ARKANSAS AR-JEFFERSON AR-PRAIRIE AR-
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN PRAIRIE...
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

AT 1154 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WABBASEKA TO NEAR ALTHEIMER TO FAIRFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STUTTGART...          WABBASEKA...          MADDING...
  HUMPHREY...           BAYOU METO STATE GAME AREA...
  ALTHEIMER...          ALMYRA...             ROB ROY...
  LODGE CORNER...       GLENLAKE...           GETHSEMANE...
  CORNERSTONE...        CASSCOE...            YODER...
  WILSON RESERVOIR...   WALWORTH RES...       VALLIER...
  TRULOCK PARK...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3457 9129 3432 9134 3416 9198 3442 9191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 230DEG 31KT 3442 9182 3432 9183
          3421 9189

62