Severe Thunderstorm Warning 357, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS. STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND STALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ISOLATED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
CLOUDS...RAIN...AND FRONT IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE EXTEND FORECAST BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AR...WITH DRY AND A BIT COOLER WEATHER. THURSDAY
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND AS THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
MOVED EAST AND RETURN FLOW HAS COME BACK TO AR...WHILE A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF TAKES MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY NORTH OF AR WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AR. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...ANY REMAINING PRECIP
SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS AND A BIT
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE PLAINS FOR A WARM UP AND MAINLY DRY FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  69  48  60 /  80  90  90  70
CAMDEN AR         67  78  57  64 /  70  80  80  70
HARRISON AR       49  61  42  57 /  60  90  90  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  75  52  59 /  80  90  90  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  75  53  61 /  80  90  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     67  80  62  67 /  70  70  80  60
MOUNT IDA AR      62  73  50  58 /  80  90  90  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  61  44  59 /  60  90  90  60
NEWPORT AR        60  72  50  61 /  80  90  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  77  57  64 /  70  80  80  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  68  47  58 /  70  90  90  80
SEARCY AR         61  74  51  61 /  80  90  90  80
STUTTGART AR      63  76  55  63 /  80  90  90  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
415 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
415 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN STARTING TONIGHT...AS
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
STATE. WITH MUCH OF THE STATE RECEIVING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST WEEK...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY RAINFALL. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE STATE.

RIVER FLOODING IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY RIVERS
ACROSS THE STATE REMAINING AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE YET TO SEE THE RIVERS CREST...WITH CONTINUING RISES
EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
EITHER AGGRAVATE THIS SITUATION...OR AT LEAST SLOW THE RATE AT
WHICH FLOOD WATERS RECEDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY WILL
STALL ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE STATE SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION WITH THE STALLED FRONT
IN PLACE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
PERSIST...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME YET AGAIN...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE.

RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE
STATE AS ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2...TO AS MUCH AS 5
INCHES OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY VERY SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING
ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

ARZ007-015-016-025-010000-
INDEPENDENCE AR-IZARD AR-JACKSON AR-SHARP AR-
632 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN IZARD...
INDEPENDENCE...NORTHERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN SHARP COUNTIES UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF CAVE CITY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BATESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THERE IS ANOTHER STORM
OVER BATESVILLE...THAT IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BATESVILLE...         SALADO...             MOOREFIELD...
  CUSHMAN...            CAVE CITY...          SULPHUR ROCK...
  SANDTOWN...           POUGHKEEPSIE...       PFEIFFER...
  NELSONVILLE...        LOCUST GROVE...       JAMES...
  HUTCHINSON...         GRANGE...             GAINESBORO...
  DOWDY...              DESHA...              CURIA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3558 9173 3586 9185 3621 9137 3617 9134
      3590 9135 3590 9116 3588 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 227DEG 47KT 3591 9152

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