Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1152 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RAIN...FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PARENT
UPPER LOW DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011/

AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY
DURING THE LATE MORNING. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MIDDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ESP[ESPECIALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SQUALL LINE FORMS ON THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS.

MAIN QUESTION OF TODAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT...AND THUS
INSTABILITY...WILL MOVE. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT THE GREATEST IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTH...THERE IS ENOUGH WIND
ENERGY TO WARRANT A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE
BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS WILL FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH THE BETTER
MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE LIMITED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH RAINFALL MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND BEYOND. MODELS IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMING IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS
WERE NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE AT ALL AND ITS POSSIBLE THIS MODEL MAY
BE TRENDING THE WAY OF THE GFS. REGARDLESS...WE ARE STILL TALKING
DAY SEVEN AND ONLY LOW END POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED UNTIL MODELS BEGIN
TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE STATE BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE AND BARELY ANY CLOUDS
WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY BRINGS THEM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK
GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER AND FASTER VERSUS
ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART. FOR REASONS LISTED PREVIOUSLY...WILL ONLY
HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH. IF CURRENT GFS THINKING COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE WEATHER
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  48  57  34 /  90  90  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  54  64  36 /  90  80  10   0
HARRISON AR       49  41  52  31 /  90  70  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  49  60  35 /  90  80  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  50  60  35 /  90  80  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  57  63  37 /  90  90  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      56  46  59  35 /  90  70  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  44  54  32 /  90  80  10  10
NEWPORT AR        53  50  58  35 /  90  90  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     58  54  62  37 /  90  90  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  45  56  33 /  90  70  10  10
SEARCY AR         54  50  58  35 /  90  90  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  53  60  36 /  90  90  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1025 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING...AND SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE.

AS OF LATE THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE ONLY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WARMTH AND MOISTURE WAS TRYING TO INCREASE
FROM THE GULF COAST...BUT WAS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL TEND TO RIDE OVER
COOLER CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION FORMING ABOVE
THE COOL LAYER. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AIR ALOFT.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THIS DRY AIR MASS...WITH SOME EVAPORATION
OCCURRING. THIS WILL CREATE COOLING...AND WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR
HAIL TO FORM. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE CONCERN FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...OR ABOVE COOL AIR NEAR THE GROUND. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL BE LESS ELEVATED...
MAKING IT EASIER FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND.

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL BE CONFINED TO
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO A CONCERN
FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WINDS WILL TURN WITH
HEIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WARMING
IS MORE OF A GUARANTEE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES MORE LIKELY FROM LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI.

OTHER THAN SEVERE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. FROM LITTLE ROCK
EASTWARD...RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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