Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

.AVIATION...

TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. KHRO AND KBPK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT THOSE SITES. AS A RESULT...KEPT THOSE SITES
IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. FURTHER SOUTH...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CIGS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. KPBF AND KLLQ SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
WITH SOUTHERLY AND SCT- BKN VFR CLOUDS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY CREEP
IN TO THOSE STATIONS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011/

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

RUNNING BEHIND THIS AFTN WITH ONGOING SVR WX...SO THIS WL BE BRIEF.

FNTL BNDRY HAS MADE ITS WAY A BIT FURTHER TO THE S THIS AFTN...
EXTENDING FM W-CNTRL AT BACK INTO NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
CONVECTION HAS CONTD TO DVLP ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY...WITH A
NUMBER OF ROTATING CELLS NOTED.

ACTIVITY WL CONT TO BE FOCUSED ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE FA TNGT INTO
MON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL WL ALSO RMN A CONCERN WITH A FF WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THRU
MON NGT. CONTD TO EMPHASIZE THE SIG POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...ALONG WITH HIGH WATER PROBLEMS ALONG AREA RIVERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HEAVY RAIN/SVR WX THREAT WL SPREAD ACRS THE REST OF THE FA MON AND
MON NGT AS A LOW PRES DVLPS TO OUR W AND TRACKS NEWD. THIS WL PUSH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY FURTHER INTO AR...FOCUSING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. UNSETTLED CONDS WL CONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

IT HAS BEEN A BUSY DAY SO I WILL JUST HIT THE HIGH POINTS HERE.

THE SECOND...AND STRONGEST WAVE...IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REST FROM SOMEWHERE NEAR MENA IN THE WEST...TO
ROUGHLY JONESBORO IN THE EAST. AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE NE ACROSS THE STATE. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ACROSS
THE STATE. LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
AREAS SOUTH...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. FURTHERMORE...
CONTINUED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS RAINS WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. RAINFALL
TOTALS ON TUE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS A LARGE SWATH
OF THE STATE...WITH TOTALS ABOVE 4 INCHES CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY.

BY EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS WED AFTERNOON...WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING/IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS
SUCH...THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW.

SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR RETURNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  76  61  76 /  70  80  70  60
CAMDEN AR         67  83  65  82 /  20  70  70  60
HARRISON AR       58  76  55  73 /  90  90  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  79  64  80 /  40  80  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  82  64  81 /  30  80  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     67  85  67  83 /  10  60  80  60
MOUNT IDA AR      69  78  63  77 /  50  80  50  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  77  56  75 /  90  90  60  60
NEWPORT AR        67  79  63  77 /  50  80  80  60
PINE BLUFF AR     67  83  65  83 /  20  70  80  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  78  60  78 /  70  90  50  60
SEARCY AR         66  76  63  79 /  40  80  70  60
STUTTGART AR      67  82  65  82 /  30  70  80  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...63 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
545 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...PRIMARILY IN THE WHITE RIVER
BASIN. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS INCLUDES THE
BUFFALO...SPRING...ELEVEN POINT AND BLACK RIVER SYSTEMS. SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ALONG THESE RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING A RISE FROM
RECENT RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTH ARKANSAS WILL
ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SWOLLEN RIVERS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
GLENWOOD...TO CONWAY...TO NEWPORT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. AGAIN...THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE REPEATED TUESDAY...AS
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE. AS SUCH...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME. THE
AREAS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
THE CONCERN WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...PRIMARILY IN THE
WHITE RIVER BASIN. THIS INCLUDES THE
BUFFALO...WHITE...SPRING...ELEVEN POINT AND BLACK RIVER SYSTEMS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THESE RIVERS ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING A RISE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WHITE RIVER
BASIN WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SWOLLEN RIVERS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FOR ANY UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58/56/61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
959 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

ARZ030-037>042-054-250345-
GARLAND AR-HOT SPRING AR-LOGAN AR-MONTGOMERY AR-PERRY AR-POLK
AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
959 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LOGAN...YELL...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...EASTERN SCOTT...WESTERN GARLAND...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHEASTERN POLK AND EXTREME WESTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACK CREEK REC
AREA TO NEAR BUCK KNOB...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MT IDA...             LAKE OUACHITA...      DANVILLE...
  STONEHOUSE REC AREA...                      PLAINVIEW...
  ODEN...               NIMROD LAKE...        MUDDY CREEK WMA...
  MIMOSA...             MEYERS...             MAULDIN...
  MAGAZINE...           LENA LNDG REC AREA... GAP CREEK REC AREA...
  FOURCHE VALLEY...     CARDIFF...            BLUE MTN LAKE...

LAT...LON 3498 9306 3438 9330 3458 9411 3522 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 288DEG 38KT 3501 9381 3471 9391

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1006 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HAIL             4 W CENTERVILLE         35.12N 93.24W
04/24/2011  E2.75 INCH       YELL               AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1008 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             4 W CENTERVILLE         35.12N 93.24W
04/24/2011  E2.75 INCH       YELL               AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1012 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             MOUNT MAGAZINE          35.17N 93.65W
04/24/2011  E2.75 INCH       LOGAN              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WALDRON                 34.90N 94.09W
04/24/2011                   SCOTT              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            GREENRIDGE ROAD IN WALDRON IS UNDER WATER AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1038 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ST. VINCENT         35.29N 92.73W
04/24/2011                   CONWAY             AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 95.

&&

56