River Flood Warning 61, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATED OVER SW MO/NE OK ARE
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WOULD EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEGRADE AT HRO AND BPK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CEILINGS MAINLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERARY LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING STRONGER STORMS. LIGHTER CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER KLIT
AND KHOT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AHEAD OF THE LINE IN NORTH
ARKANSAS. LEFT KLLQ AND KPBF PRECIP FREE AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...OVERCAST SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

AVIATION...
THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS THIS MORNING THROUGH KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE REDEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
STOP ME IF YOU/VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE...

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NUMEROUS WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION...WITH MANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES BEING
LEFT BEHIND BY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ALL OF THESE WILL
COME INTO PLAY TODAY...AS WARM AIR INTERACTS WITH THESE...AS WELL
AS MORE WAVES MOVING UP IN THE MEAN FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PRESENT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...
PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. BEING THAT AMOUNTS UP IN
THAT REGION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE ALREADY BEEN AS MUCH AS ONE
TO TWO INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY DUE TO THE INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL AT THIS TIME JUST MENTION WINDS
OF 10 TO 15...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DIVES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A
FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN STALLED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THE LAST
FEW DAYS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE WEE HOURS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT ITSELF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS. AGAIN...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY WITHIN STRONGER CELLS AS WELL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA SOME TIME EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND IT...AS THE
UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND ALLOWS FOR
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
U.S. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ON SATURDAY AND REALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY AT THIS TIME. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING...A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  65  80  69 /  50  50  20  40
CAMDEN AR         84  66  87  71 /  30  20  10  40
HARRISON AR       78  62  80  67 /  60  50  20  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  66  86  70 /  50  30  10  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  67  86  68 /  50  30  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     85  68  89  72 /  20  20  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      81  66  83  71 /  50  30  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  63  81  68 /  60  50  20  60
NEWPORT AR        80  66  82  70 /  50  50  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     82  67  87  70 /  30  30  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  65  85  69 /  60  40  20  40
SEARCY AR         83  66  82  66 /  40  40  20  40
STUTTGART AR      85  67  85  69 /  30  30  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-PERRY-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
928 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AGAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS.

THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE...AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO
SOLAR HEATING.  VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR
TORNADOES...WILL EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE...TO BATESVILLE DURING THIS TIME.

IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE OVERALL OVERALL COVERAGE AN INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 11 PM.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE MOST RIVERS
HAVE CRESTED...SOME ARE RISING AGAIN...AND THE WATER WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO RECEDE. A FEW ROADS IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE REMAIN
CLOSED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO A STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
ARKANSAS. STORM SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

TWO TO FOUR INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES NEAREST THE STALLED FRONT...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS...BUT NOT TO THE
LEVELS REACHED EARLIER THIS MONTH.

IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GAIN SOME MOMENTUM AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. IT APPEARS FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA.

RIVER FLOODING WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. INDIVIDUALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON RIVER LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 9
PM...ALONG AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
130 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

ARZ004>006-014-015-231900-
BAXTER AR-FULTON AR-IZARD AR-MARION AR-STONE AR-
130 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN IZARD...SOUTHERN
BAXTER...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MARION...EXTREME NORTHERN STONE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OLD JOE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MOUNTAIN HOME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WIDEMAN...            SHIPP...              SALESVILLE...
  RODNEY...             PUSH MTN...           PINEVILLE...
  NORFORK DAM...        NORFORK...            HERRON...
  CULP...               CARTNEY...            CALICO ROCK...
  BRIARCLIFF...         ADVANCE...            LONE ROCK...
  JORDAN...             DOLPH...              WOOD PT PARK...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3633 9215 3618 9199 3604 9236 3620 9247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 244DEG 45KT 3620 9219

58

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>