Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SOME LOW
POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ON TAP FOR TOMORROW AS HIGHER SFC
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE. SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE STATE AND A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH...BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.

GFS AND NAM ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT HOW TO HANDLE THE
SITUATION ON SATURDAY. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...
ALTHOUGH ITS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY 30-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SOLUTION. 53

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
OF WHICH WILL BRING SMALL RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY WITH THE FINITE FEATURES...BUT OVERALL CAPTURING A MORE
SPRINGLIKE PATTERN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN OFF/ON OVER THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN AND ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM. KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES
ON ACCOUNT OF CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES...BUT SHOULD REBOUND BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. 61

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  56  36  58 /   0   0  20  30
CAMDEN AR         46  71  43  77 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       37  54  36  59 /   0   0  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  66  41  71 /   0   0  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  63  40  68 /   0   0  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     46  69  41  75 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      43  66  41  72 /   0   0  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  55  35  57 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        42  56  36  59 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     45  65  40  72 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   40  63  39  66 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         42  59  37  62 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      44  61  39  67 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...USHERING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED IN MUCH OF ARKANSAS...WITH WIND
SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRES. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND EVENTUALLY
INTERACT WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS RIDING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE SYSTEMS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD ARRIVE BY MONDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP ARKANSAS
IN A SOMEWHAT COOL AIRMASS...LIMITING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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