Flash Flood Warning 116, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTIVE TRENDS THRU EARLY THIS EVENING WL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.
SCTD SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVR NRN AR ATTM...BUT MAINLY TO THE S OF
KHRO AND KBPK. OUTFLOW BNDRY FM THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK
SWD THIS AFTN ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
FORMATION EXPECTED ALONG IT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS
ACRS THE FA WITH VCTS MENTIONED THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ARND SUNSET...WITH PTCHY BR FORMING LATER TNGT ACRS MAINLY
NRN AR. VSBYS WL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LVLS AT TIMES INTO TUE MRNG.
/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2011/

UPDATE...
SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL VORTEX...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...IS
NOW CENTERED NEAR MARSHALL...AS EVIDENT FROM RECENT RADAR IMAGERY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 19Z. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...LOCATED FROM WYNNE...TO NEAR CABOT MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR EVOLVING MESOSCALE
FEATURES.

55
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
101 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. BRIEF...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...ACTING ON ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALIZED...HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORM
WILL BE HIGH WINDS.

WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100...AND WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN
HIGH. EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 105 DURING THE PEAK HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
159 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ARZ041-052-041945-
MONTGOMERY AR-PIKE AR-
159 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NORTHERN
PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAULDIN...OR NEAR MT IDA...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MT IDA...             ODEN...               NORMAN...
  MIMOSA...             MAULDIN...            GAP MTN...
  SIMS...               SILVER...             PENCIL BLUFF...
  HURRICANE GROVE...    GIBBS...              CADDO GAP...
  BLACK SPRINGS...      WHITETOWN...          WHEELER MTN...
  TWIN CREEK REC AREA...                      SWEETHOME...
  STRAWN MTN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3440 9340 3433 9374 3471 9382 3475 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 345DEG 7KT 3456 9365

/44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
201 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ARZ031-032-039-041945-
CONWAY AR-FAULKNER AR-PERRY AR-
201 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CONWAY...WESTERN
FAULKNER AND NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENIFEE...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CONWAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CONWAY...             WOOSTER...            TOAD SUCK...
  SPRINGFIELD...        PICKLES GAP...        MENIFEE...
  HILL CREEK...         SALTILLO...           PLUMERVILLE...
  OVERCUP...            NEW DIXIE...          MT OLIVE...
  FOURCHE...            BEAVER FORK LAKE...   STONY POINT...
  SKUNK HOLLOW...       SHADY GROVE...        ROUND MTN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 133.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3503 9231 3494 9262 3522 9271 3529 9251
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 338DEG 13KT 3517 9257

/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
206 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E AMITY               34.27N 93.39W
07/04/2011  E65 MPH          CLARK              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0203 PM     HAIL             4 E AMITY               34.27N 93.39W
07/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

55

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