Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
412 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND RAINY START TO THE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. POTENT LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES /MOSTLY AN ADVISORY/ AND EXPANDING
THE FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE.

AS OF 08Z...1011MB SFC TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH COLD AIR
STREAMING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. TEMPS MID 50S TO
LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MID 30S OVER OH AND HEADED THIS WAY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH APPROACHES THROUGH TODAY...
THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW. PLUME OF
GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH THE SFC TROUGH/DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL THE SFC LOW PASSES
THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD AIR DRAWN SOUTH TOWARD THE LOW WILL
ENABLE SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THE LOW WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT...ENDING THE PRECIP
BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

FLOODING...6/12 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM MARFC IS 1.5 TO 3 INCHES WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTS LARGE SWATH OF RAIN BACK
TO TN VLY. NAM/GFS PRINT OUT QPF NEAR THIS RANGE...SO A FLOOD
WATCH WAS ADDED FOR ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA NOW INTO THE
EVENING /UNTIL 00Z...WHEN PRECIP SHOULD BE CHANGING TO SNOW/.
MAINTAINED FLOOD WATCH FOR BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA /THOUGH
END WAS TRIMMED WITH END OF PRECIP/. THE WHOLE CWA SHOULD RECEIVE
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. HEADLINES ARE BASED ON FLOOD GUIDANCE...SO THE
WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM FOR
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO AREA IS FLOODING...NOT SNOW.

SNOW OUTSIDE METROS...DYNAMIC /COLD AIR ADVECTION/ AND THERMODYNAMIC
/COLUMN COOLING/ FORCING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP ENOUGH
FOR SNOW IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
EVERYWHERE NORTH/WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL /925 TO 850MB/ LOW CENTER...
THEN ACROSS THE CWA IN WRAP-AROUND SNOW BANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN WARM SFC /KHSP ONLY RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW 50F/
SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME STICKING AT FIRST. WITH ELEVATION
BEING A FACTOR IN SNOW ONSET...ALLOWED FOR MORE SNOW ON RIDGES.
WENT WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN MINERAL AND GRANT
/WHERE 5-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED/ AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE BLUE RIDGE AND NRN MD AND WEST WHERE 1-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
/AGAIN HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ELEVATION/.

SNOW IN METRO...BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO RECEIVES SNOW ONLY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT/INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
ROUGHLY ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH EXPECTED BELOW 500 FT ELEVATION. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LOOK CAREFULLY AT SNOW TOTALS IN THE METRO AREA.

WIND...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. GUSTS TO THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
THE RIDGELINES...BUT MORE LIKE 35 TO 40 MPH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHRTWV TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR WED NGT SNOW AND RAIN WILL MAKE HASTE
TO CANADIAN MARITIMES THU MRNG. LARGE UPR VORTEX WILL RMN OVER
CNTRL CANADA...PROVIDING ZONAL FLOW TO THE MID-ATLC RGN.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THU MRNG AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES AND SFC
HIPRES BUILDS EWD FROM THE MIDWEST. CLRG TREND ALSO XPCD IN SKY
CVR. BY THU EVE...A SHRTWV TROF WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NRN PLNS
AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED H5 RDG IN ERN PACIFIC. THIS WAVE WILL DISLODGE
COLD AIR THAT WILL APRCH THE MID-ATLC RGN LATE FRI NGT.

MUCH COLDER DAY XPCD ON THU. FCST MAXIMA GENLY ARE IN THE LOW-MID
40S...BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WRN ZONES MAY NOT EXCEED FRZG. SLGT
MODERATION IN TEMPS XPCD FRI...WITH MAXIMA GENLY IN MID-UPR 40S.
CHC FOR UPSLP PCPN EXISTS FRI NGT ON WRN SLOPES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APRCHG SHRTWV TROF WILL
CROSS THE RGN FRI NGT...COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SAT MRNG. COLD AND
BLUSTERY DAY XPCD AS H9 TEMPS DROP 5-6 DEG C. MAXIMA IN MID 30S-
LWR 40S WILL BE COMMON AS SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN.

SAT NGT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH SFC HIGH CNTRD IN FCST AREA. CALM
WINDS...VERY DRY AMS AND CLR SKIES WILL SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MINIMA IN THE LOW-MID 20S WILL BE COMMON...WITH WDSPRD
MINIMA IN THE TEENS PSBL W OF THE BLUE RDG MTNS.

TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WILL MODERATE INTO MID-UPR 40S MON AND TUE. MINOR
SHRTWV TROFS WILL CROSS THE CNTRL APLCNS EARLY NEXT WK...BUT LKLY
WILL LACK SGFNT MSTR TO GENERATE PCPN UNTIL A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF
APRCHS ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SLY FLOW BECOMES WLY/NWLY...THOUGH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE AREA MAY STALL...SETTING UP A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE IN
THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METRO. LOW PASSES THIS EVENING...WITH
SNOW FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
STRONG NWLY FLOW GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT LATE TONIGHT.

GUSTY NWLY WINDS CAN BE XPCD THU AT ALL TERMINALS AND AGAIN ON SAT
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG CDFNT. ATTM...NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS XPCD.
VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SITTING JUST WEST OF THE BAY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT FOR THE LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH. SHOULD THE
COLD FRONT STALL OUT...SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR LOWER PORTIONS OF THE MD SIDE OF THE BAY. LOW PASSES
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG NWLY FLOW GUSTING TO THE 35 KT RANGE MAINLY
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 6 AM. GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD THU MRNG AS PRES GRADIENT BGNS TO RELAX AND
SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN. GALE WRNG WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 11Z...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADZY REPLACING IT.

NO SGFNT WX XPCD FRI-FRI NGT. CDFNT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT MRNG
AND WILL GENERATE QUITE GUSTY WINDS OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVCTN. A SMALL CRAFT ADZY LKLY WILL BE NEEDED DURG THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS AROUND HALF A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTION TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY ON THE WATERS...SO LEVELS COULD RISE TO 1
FT. A LOW CHANCE MAY EXIST FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-502.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ005>007-009>011.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>030-036>040-503-
     504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ025-026-503-504.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ052>054.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ027>031-036>040-042-501.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ055-502-504>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ050>053.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-503.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.

&&

JACKSON/KRAMAR

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