Special Weather Statement, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PORTIONS OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE W/ THE SRN TIER
COUNTIES AND LOCALES UP THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEING THE MOST
PRIMED AREAS IN THE NEAR TERM. THE MCV/MESOVORT THAT IS SLOWLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVING OFF THE SRN NJ COAST HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE AREA
FAIRLY STABLE IN ITS WAKE. BESIDES A WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...SINKING MOTION HAS DRIED OUT AND STABILIZED THE MID LEVELS.
RECENTLY HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS BEGUN TO BREAK W/ SFC TEMPS REACHING
THE L90S ACROSS THE AREA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO CONVECTION AND
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION. A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN WV/SWRN VA
PANHANDLE. THIS IS THE FIRST WAVE OF INITIATION AND IS ASSOCIATED W/
A LOCALIZED UPPER VORT MAX STRETCHING OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THE
SECOND WAVE IS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VLY
AND JUST NOW MOVING INTO WRN PA. THE FIRST WAVE OF INITIATION LOOKS
TO BE THE STRONGEST AND LOCAL MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON IT AS THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS /SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE/ ACROSS THE NRN
VA PIEDMONT/SRN MD. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD ALSO BUILD UP
ACROSS THE NRN SHENANDOAH VLY AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC-BALT.

MODEST CAPE VALUES IN THE NORTH 1000-1500J/KG - BUT THE SRN HALF A
BIT MORE PALTRY W/ VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AT THIS HR W/
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER NERN MD WHICH IS RELATIVELY
CLOSER TO THE PARENT UPPER LOW AND HAS BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /AND
ANY BAY-BREEZE OR OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT MAY EXIST/. HAIL AND
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA W/
ANY STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.

THE SECOND WAVE /THE COLD FRONT/ WILL THEN MOVE IN LATER THIS
EVE...TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT W/ MAINLY BATCHES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE ACTIVITY SEWD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HRS. WE WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COASTAL AREAS AND ALONG I-95
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
U60S/L70S. BUT THE WRN ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS DROP WELL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S
WX TOMORROW. THE SFC HIGH WILL SINK SEWD BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
TROUGH AND LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN W/
CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES LOWER AS WELL...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS THAT MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE /THOUGH BEING IN
MID-METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER - THE SUN ANGLE IS AT ITS HIGHEST FOR THIS
AREA...SO UV RADIATION WILL STILL BE HIGH REGARDLESS OF THE TEMP/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY UNDER THE
HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHTS AND IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 100
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH/MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE DETAILS OF TIMING. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY...THEN MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE GETTING
SUPPRESSED SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL
HELP DETERMINE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF BOUNDARY
IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN IT MAY BE A DRY DAY BUT IF ITS
CLOSE ENOUGH THEN THAT COULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS FILLED IN WITH SCT/BKN CUMULUS WHICH EVENTUALLY
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN-EVE. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...THOUGH
NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
/PARTICULARLY FROM KCHO TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR S OF DC/ WILL BE PRIMED
FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD LATE AFTN-EVE. CB GROUPS ARE THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT CURRENT TAFS...W/ SOME POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
THAT 22-02Z TIME FRAME.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU THE REGION LATE TONIGHT /AFT 00Z/ WHICH
WILL DRIVE ANY LINGER SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE EAST. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AND SFC WINDS WILL STAY OUT
OF THE WNW WELL INTO THE DAYTIME HRS WED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. WARM
FRONT MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A 10KT NLY BREEZE DOWN THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY HAS DROPPED OFF A
BIT IN THE PAST FEW HRS W/ THE EXIT OF A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE MOVED OVER THE NRN BAY DURING THE LATE
MORNING HRS...AND HAS SINCE DRIFTED OVER SRN NJ/CAPE MAY AREA. A
SEVERAL HR LULL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WATERS...IN TERMS OF JUST
LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIP. LATER THIS AFTN AND THRU THE EVE
HRS...BATCHES OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LAND AREAS AND MOVE TOWARD THE BAY/TP. ADVERSE WX CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR TSTM ENVIRONMENTS LATE THIS EVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEHIND THE FRONT...A 20-30KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND MIX DOWN OVER THE BAY HEADING INTO
THE PREDAWN HRS WED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE BAY FOR A FEW HRS NEAR SUNRISE AND INTO LATE WED
MORNING. WNWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAYTIME BUT MAINLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...WEAK GRADIENT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SCA WIND HEADLINES ACROSS THE WATERS AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GMS/BPP
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...GMS/BPP
MARINE...GMS/BPP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
291000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER INLET FOR THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS IN THE EVENT THAT
LIMITED ACTIVATION BECOMES NECESSARY.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-291000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
317 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
NEAR 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS IN THE EVENT THAT
LIMITED ACTIVATION BECOMES NECESSARY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>