Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TONIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE AND SETTLED
WEATHER TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. AS THIS RIDGE AMPLIFIES...AN UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NRN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO DIVE SEWD THRU THE NORTHEAST AND
NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN AND ERY EVE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AND THE ULVL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. AFTER A FEW HRS OF INTENSE HEATING...18Z MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC DEPICTED VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ABOUT SBCAPE OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS NRN MD AND NEAR THE CHSPK BAY.
FARTHER SOUTH...SLIGHTLY LOWER SBCAPE EXISTS. LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE
BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST-MD AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR THE CHSPK BAY. AGREE WITH
THIS SOLUTION DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND BETTER SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS THESE AREAS. A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AN INVERTED-V SETUP IN THE LLVLS WILL SUPPORT CONCERN OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS SETUP FAVORS EFFICIENT
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN TSTMS. THEREFORE...AN ISO
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

TIMING FOR SEVERE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST FROM LATE AFTN THRU AN HOUR
OR TWO PAST SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR SWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
EVE. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER LWR SRN MD SHOULD WANE DURING
THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE LATE TNGT WITH
OVNGT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS TO MID AND
UPPER 70S IN THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST.

THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIPRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE LOCATED
IN BETWEEN THE TNGT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ THAT IS MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MCS TRACKING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE UPSTREAM
MCS AND A FEW DAYTIME CU...SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY. STRONG SOLAR
RADIATION WILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THREE OF THE MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC SIMULATIONS...THE GFS EURO AND
NAM...ALL HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW/STORM DIVING SE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF IT...THAT WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY/FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT
WITH THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY WITH THIS LOW...WE WILL SEE. AT THIS POINT
THERE IS A SMALL FIVE PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY POINT IN OUR AREA SEEING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. A SMALL NUMBER...BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH. IF THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY...WE
WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS. BUT AGAIN AT THIS POINT I WOULD EXPECT
EITHER A FEW SEVERE STORMS OR NONE FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
CLOUD COVER. THU AND FRI WILL BE SEASONABLE. SATURDAY IS SLATED TO BE OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE GFS
AND EURO.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
ONE OR TWO OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE NEAR THE MRB...HGR...AND IAD
AIRPORTS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE NEAR BWI
AND MTN DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AS A BAY BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR 4 SM. ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITY SHOULD BE 6 SM OR
ABOVE. CEILINGS WILL CONSIST MOSTLY OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT AROUND 6000 TO 8000
FEET. SOME CIRRUS OR CIRROSTRATUS AROUND 20000 FEET COULD ACCOMPANY
OR BECOME A PRECURSOR OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WNW TO NW BETWEEN
5 AND 10 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR ESE TO SE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR BWI AND
MTN WITH THE BAY BREEZE. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ALLOWING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET...VISIBILITY GREATER THAN 6
SM...AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON WED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUE
THRU A FEW HRS AFTER SUNSET AS WEAK TROUGH PASSES THRU FROM THE NW.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE LIKELY. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...LGT GRADIENT
WINDS 5-10 KT THE REST OF TDA WILL INCREASE A BIT TNGT AS A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THRU. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
THOUGH. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TUE.

OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS WED AND SAT...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...KLW/JRK/CAS
MARINE...JRK/CAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
424 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
021130-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
424 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT THE
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID-EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-021130-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
424 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT THE
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID-EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

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