Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
821 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...
TRUNCATED THE ORIGINAL ZONES FROM SVR TSTM WATCH 631 /WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE/. THE COLD POOL HAS STABILIZED THESE AREAS AND PUSHED
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATED MCS. THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT COMING IN THE FORM OF STRONG INDIVIDUAL
UPDRAFTS...TAPPING INTO SOME STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
CREATING LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
AFFECTING NERD MD W/ NEW DEVELOPMENT SKIRTING THE NRN DC AREA AND
MORE BATCHES DOWN ACROSS THE NRN VA PIEDMONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD. WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE METRO
AREAS AROUND 10 PM AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 11 PM.

FROM PREV DISC...
AFTER 10 PM...THEN CHANCE POPS CROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
EVENING MCS ACTIVITY COULD DISRUPT NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT /WITH
REMNANT STRATUS/ SO THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DETERMINE
DETAILS WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY WOULD BE ELEVATED...SO
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW. MIN TEMPS RATHER MILD...NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS - SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT A COLD FRONT...850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AT 21/22C. POST TROUGH NWLY FLOW WILL MIX THIS AIR
DOWN...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 90S...POSSIBLY TO 100F
SHOULD MORNING DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT/BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MIXING BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP DEWPOINTS BELOW
70F...THROUGH MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PERSIST INVOF I-95 IN MD/NRN VA AND EAST OF THE HWY 29
CORRIDOR IN N-CNTRL VA...WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH
105F. THEREFORE...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8PM FOR
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HARFORD TO DC TO NELSON COUNTY. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100F WEST OF THIS ADVISORY...AND SHOULD
FORECASTED MIXING NOT DROP DEWPOINTS AS MUCH...A WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY WOULD BE WARRANTED. LOW CHANCES OF GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN ESSENTIALLY THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA WITH HEATING
REACHING NEAR THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRETCH OF RATHER PLSNT WX IS ON TAP FOR MID JUL AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FM THE UPR MIDWEST FOR WED AND THU. GIVEN THE AMT OF THETA-E
AVBL AFTR HAVG TEMPS REACH THE U90S OVR MUCH OF THE AREA FEEL
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUE EVE AND HV PUT ENTIRE CWA IN SLT CHC.

WED SHOULD BE CONVCTN-FREE AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVR THE
GRT LKS NOSING INTO THE MID ATLC. GIVEN THE TEMPS OF THE PRVS FEW
DAYS THERE'LL BE PLENTY OF HEAT STORED AT THE SFC...SO BLV
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WL STILL XPRNC AFTN TEMPS IN THE LM90S. DWPTS
WL BE THE DIFFERENCE...M60S WED AS OPPOSED TO L70S TUE.

WED NGT SHOULD BE VERY NICE...DWPTS IN THE L60S...CLR SKIES. THAT
WX SHOULD CONTINUE ON THU W/ HIGHS IN THE M80S.

AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES ONTO THE CST...AND EVENTUALLY OFF DURG THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WK...THE TRANSFORMATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE MAKING
THE WX FEEL MORE LK THE TRADITIONAL HEAT/HUMIDITY THIS RGN XPRNCS.
THE WKND HIGH TEMPS SHOLD BE IN THE MU80S W/ DWPTS IN THE MU60S.
BY NEXT MON DWPTS SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO 70.

THRUT THE PD OVRNGT LOWS IN THE CITIES WL HV TROUBLE DROPPING BLO
70. WED AND THU NGTS WL BE THE MOST PLSNT W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
W/ LOWS IN THE LM60S..PSBLY EVEN U50S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

NOTICING A CHG IN THE XTND LONG RNG...AFTR NEXT MON THE 06Z GFS
WAS IMPLYING THE UPPER RDG STAYS CLOSER TO THE E CST..BUT THE 12Z
IS SHOWING THE RDG RETROGRADING WWD AND MOVG THE E CST UNDER AN
UPR TROF. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON E CST
WX FOR THE 3RD WK OF JUL. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SCHED ISSUANCE IS JUST AS A DISSIPATING MCS HAS CROSSED
THE MTNS AND NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VLY. THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INDIVIDUAL CELLS FORMING OUT AHEAD
OF THE LINE. GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
LOTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ARE COMING FROM DYING CELLS AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD TSTM
CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT FOR INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...THEN MAINLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AFTERWHICH.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY WIND TO 10 TO 12 KT EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBWI TO KDCA TO KCHO.

IN THE XTND...PTNL TSTMS TUE NGT AS HIGH PRES/COLD FNT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WX FOR THE RMDR
OF THE WK...NO PROBS FOR RMDR OF WORK WK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING IS ONGOING WITH GUSTS AROUND 18KT...THEREFORE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH TONIGHT. EVENING GUSTS
SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT. SWLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING BECOMES WLY/NWLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. SCATTERED
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CHES
BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE WATERS.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE WED AND THU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HOT CONDITIONS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH DAILY RECORD MAX
AND HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 12. BELOW ARE THE DAILY TEMP
RECORDS FOR SELECT CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA...

RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW...JULY 12
DCA...99F SET IN 1908
BWI...97F SET IN 1908
IAD...97F SET IN 1986

RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR TOMORROW...JULY 12
DCA...76F SET IN 1876/1925/1980/1989/1993
BWI...77F SET IN 1935/1936
IAD...72F SET IN 2006

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ007-009>011-
     013-014-016>018.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ036-037-
     050>057-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BAJ/WOODY!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW BETHEL             38.74N  77.86W
07/11/2011                   FAUQUIER           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES AT CANNONBALL GATE ROAD AND
            BEAR WALLOW ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101163

SBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE WOLFSVILLE        39.60N  77.54W
07/11/2011                   FREDERICK          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON BRANDENBURG HOLLOW ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101166

SBK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW SABILLASVILLE     39.66N  77.48W
07/11/2011                   FREDERICK          MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON FOXVILLE DEERFIELD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101168

SBK

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