Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT MAY NOT PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H9-8 WMFNT ATOP CWFA...BUT SLOWLY MOVING THRU. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
ENTERING FAR SWRN CWFA SEEMS TO BE RESIDING ALONG THE H8 BNDRY.
OVRALL FLOW PTTN REFLECTS THE UPA RDG. WHILE THERE WL BE SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION TO YIELD MDT INSTBY...ENUF FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP...
THEIR CVRG AND INTENSITY WL BE LMTD. MTNS WL REMAIN PREFERRED.

XPCT ADDTL PCPN CLUSTER TO BUMP INTO RDG TNGT...AND THUS HVNT CHGD
POP FCST TOO MUCH. HIEST NUMBERS RESIDE ACRS NRN MD...NEAREST CNVGNC
FM WMFNT. LOTSA DEBRIS CLDS...WHICH WL INTERFERE W/ ANY FOG
FORMATION IN SPITE OF A HUMID /DEWPTS NEAR 70F/ AMS. MIN-T NOT TOO
FAR OFF FM THOSE DEWPTS.

AS WMFNT ALOFT CONTS TO PUSH NEWD...CWFA WL BE MORE W/IN THE WARM
SECTOR TMRW. RDG AXIS WL BE A BIT FURTHER EWD TOO...SO TSTMS FM UPR
OHVLY WL HV A BETTER CHC AT SURVIVING. THE PERFERRED LOCATION FOR
TSTMS REMAINS ACRS NRN MD DUE TO PROXIMITY TO TRIGGERING BNDRYS.
HWVR...AMS WL BE EQUALLY HUMID AND UNSHEARED THRUT...SUPPORTIVE OF A
LEE SFC TROF. GIVEN THAT SETUP...STRONG SLOW MVG TSTMS CUD DVLP
ANYWHERE. AS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE DEWPTS...PWATS RATHER HIGH /CLOSE
TO 1.75IN/. WL KEEP THE THEME OF HIEST POPS IN THE AFTN...LKLY N AND
CHC S. HVY RAINS AND LCL DOWNBURST WNDS PRIMARY THREATS. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A BIT TOO MUCH DEBRIS ARND TO SUPPORT MAV MAXT /LWR-MID 90S
A-PLENTY/...SO CHOSE A RTE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MET.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MID-ATLC WILL RESIDE IN SWLY L/MLVL FLOW THRU FRI WITH UPR TROF OVR
GREAT LKS AND SUBTROPICAL RDGG ACRS SERN CONUS. SCATTERED CNVCTN WED
NGT SHUD WANE DIURNALLY AS INSTABILITY DECREASES...BUT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN CVRG AND INTENSITY BY THU AFTN. IN ADDITION TO LEE TROF
THAT WILL RMN IN PLACE OVR THE AREA...CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CDFNT MOVG ACRS APLCNS SHUD AID IN CNVCTN THU AFTN. HIGHLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND DECENT 0-6KM WIND SHEAR SHUD SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...WITH RISK OF SVR WX ACRS CWA
DURG AFTN AND EVE. ACTIVITY SHUD AGAIN DIMINISH A BIT OVNGT BUT
REDEVELOP BY FRI AFTN.  TEMPS WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABV NRML...WITH
MAXIMA AVGG IN U80S AND MINIMA FROM M60S TO L70S.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL WX PATTERN SLOW TO CHANGE THIS WKEND...AND TEMPS SHUD REMAIN
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE FOR EARLY SUMMER. GREAT LAKES UPR
TROF XPCD TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND...CREATING MORE WLY FLOW ACRS
MID-ALTC. MODELS LESS AMBITIOUS WITH SWD PROGRESS OF DRIER AREA INTO
THE RGN...SO WILL CONT POPS INTO SAT. ANY WKEND BREAK IN TSTM CHCS
LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ANOTHER ULVL TROF POISED TO SET UP W
OF CWA BY EARLY NEXT WK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.  WARM FRONT SITUATED
IN WEST VIRGINIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAN
HANDLE OF WV. UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS RANGES FROM
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WEST TO LOWER CONFIDENCE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDED VCTS IN CHO AND MRB.

DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LACK OF MIXING AND MORE SO IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN.

AN ACTIVE AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WED.

CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS THRU SAT AS UNSTABLE EARLY SUMMER ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACRS MID-ATLC. ACTIVITY SHUD PEAK DURG AFTN/EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS NOT MAKING IT MUCH ABV 10-15 KT...AS WUD BE XPCTD FOR WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S AND SFC AIR TEMPS ECLIPSING 80F...AND A BULGE
OF EVEN WARMER AIR JUST ABV THAT. ANY SLY FLOW THAT DVLPG THIS EVNG
WL BE KEPT OFF THE WATERS SFC. HV OPTED TO CANX SCA. SLY WNDS 10-15
KT WL PREVAIL THRU TMRW...THO HIER WNDS PROBABLE W/IN TSTMS TMRW.

SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF SLOWLY APPROACH CDFNT WILL INCR TO NEAR SCA
THRESHOLDS WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN CHANNELING OVR
CHESAPEAKE BAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENUF IN 20 KT GUSTS TO ISSUE HEADLINES
ATTM. DECENT SSW WINDS EXPECTED INTO SAT BEFORE FLOW BCMS MORE WLY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PSBL...ESPECIALLY DURG AFTN/EVE.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL TIDES W/ THE MRNG/MIDDAY CYCLE PEAKED AOB CRITICAL LVLS. THE
NIGHTTIME CYCLE THE LWR OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...BUT SLY FLOW WL
CONT TNGT-TMRW. SO...WATER LVLS WL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL MINOR OVERFLOWS IN SENSITIVE LOCATIONS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAS/SBK
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HAS/SBK
MARINE...HTS/SBK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

WVZ052-053-212245-
JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT JEFFERSON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES...

AT 611 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HEDGESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MARTINSBURG.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 7781 3934 7803 3955 7811 3959 7799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 328DEG 10KT 3953 7800

KRAMAR

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