Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC...WHERE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR LOW OVR SERN NY TAFTN. TSRA FIRING IN RESPONSE TO S/WV ENERGY IN
UNSTBL AND MDTLY SHEARED AMS. CONDS WONT CHG ALL THAT MUCH TNGT OR
TMRW. FCST WL REVOLVE ARND TRACKING/TIMING THESE IMPULSES...AND ANY
MCS/S THEY TRIGGER...NOT AN ENDEAVOUR THAT NUMERICAL GDNC EXCELS AT.

CURRENT S/WV TROF AXIS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP FM ERN PA TO SWRN
VA. IT APPEARS AS THO THERE/S A BREAK W/IN THAT AXIS...W/ STRONGER
STORMS IN FAR NERN MD AND INVOF CHO. HWVR...WEAKER RADAR RTNS
PRIMARILY W OF BLURDG INDICATES THAT INSTBY DEPICTED IN MODIFIED
MRNG SNDG BEING REALIZED...AND XPCT ADDTL STORMS TO DVLP TAFTN.

WHILE WUD NOT ANTICIPATE DVLPMNT BHD AXIS...MESOSCALE GDNC HAS BEEN
INSISTENT IN THAT OCCURENCE. SINCE WNDS STILL MORE SLY THAN WLY...
AMS SHUDNT DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...AND THEREFORE CANNOT DISREGARD MDL
SOLNS. WL HV HIER END CHC POPS /DUE TO SCT NATURE OF ACTIVITY/ THRU
SUNSET...AND THEN TRAIL POPS DOWNWD.

ANOTHER S/WV EVIDENT IN VAPOR LOOP ENTERING NRN OH WL REACH W/VA BY
SUNSET...AND MAY AFFECT WRN SXNS OF CWFA TNGT. THEREFORE...WL HOLD
ONTO POPS W OF BLURDG INTO THE NGT.

SHUD HV A PD OF CALM LT NGT INTO THE MRNG HRS BEFORE THE NEXT
IMPULSE ARRIVES. SINCE AMS WL BE COMPARABLE...MID-LVL FLOW SHUD BE
CONFLUENT...SFC PTTN REFLECTIVE OF A LEE TROF DVLPG...AND H5 S/WV
WL BE APPROACHING...BROUGHT A RTN TO POPS FM SW TO NE. BEST CHC
RESIDES SW OF OKV-OMH. ULTIMATELY...IT/LL DEPEND ON MAXT...AND
MAV/MET DEPICTING A BIT OF SPREAD IN THAT REGARD. SOUGHT MIDDLE
GROUND...WHICH WAS VERY CLS TO PRVS FCST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AS IT SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE AN
EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE LWX CWA THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IS NOW POSSIBLE. WHILE THE SATURDAY NIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF DC...WHERE LIKELIES WERE
ENTERED...HIGH CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO THE BALT-WASH METRO FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MCS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKELY...THOUGH THE EFFECTS
OF PASSING THE APPALACHIANS ARE ALWAYS A QUESTION. AT THIS TIME IT
SEEMS LIKE THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE DETAILS AND THE SVR POTENTIAL /THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 2 END WITH THE APPALACHIANS/. MIN TEMPS UPR 60S INLAND...LOW 70S
URBAN/NEAR SHORE UNDER THICK CLOUDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FURTHER MCS ACTIVITY...BROADBRUSHED CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. QUESTION IS ON TIMING OF
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION. MAX TEMPS UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...DEPENDS ON CLOUDS AND STORMS. MIN TEMPS MID 60S WEST...NEAR
70F EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A SERN
CONUS RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HEAT IS OF CONCERN
WITH SERN CONUS RIDGES...AND 20C 850MB TEMPS ARE AN INDICATION OF
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PROG 20C 850MB TEMPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MID 90S MAX TEMPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR THE LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED SHWS AND A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS PM. INITIALLY...THE
MORE INTENSE CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS NEAR CHO. ADDTL SHWRS AND
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS PM INTO EARLY EVE NEAR ALL AIRPORTS. VIS
COULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 3 SM OR LESS IN ANY STORM. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY WSW TO WNW AT ALL AIRPORTS...EXCEPT FOR DCA WHERE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE S WITH A SUBTLE VEERING TO THE
SW THIS PM AND EVE. WIND SPEEDS 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL AVERAGE 4K TO 5K FEET WITH A FEW TOWERING CU
IN THE AREAS THAT DO NOT ENCOUNTER A TSTM. THROUGH THE EVE AND
OVERNIGHT...SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. VIS COULD DROP
TO 4SM OR 5SM FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AS PATCHES OF MIST OR
HAZE DEVELOPS NEAR IAD...CHO...AND MRB. BY MID AM AND THROUGH THE
PM TOMORROW...VIS WILL INC ABOVE 6SM WITH CLOUD CIGS BETWEEN 5K
AND 7K FEET. WE WILL HOLD ON TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME TOWERING
CU COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN IN A FEW PLACES MAINLY TOMORROW PM. WINDS
WILL GO FROM LGT AND VAR TO NW BETWEEN 5KTS AND 10KTS AT ALL
AIRPORTS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT /WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT/ PERSISTS TO
THE SOUTH OF DC. FLOW GENERALLY WLY 10 KT OR LESS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THOUGH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WOULD CREATE NLY FLOW. SLY
FLOW MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
TPLM2 SLY 12 KT...ALL OTHER SITES AOB 10 KT. S/WLY FLOW SHUD CONT
THRU THE NGT. WND FCST WL BE TRICKY TMRW. WLYS SHUD PREVAIL...BUT
CUD BE VRBL BASED ON THE MESOSCALE. REGARDLESS...SPDS SHUD BE AOB 10
KT.

STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SRN MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WLY
FLOW IS AROUND 10 KT IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE FRONT STAYS SOUTH.
HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW.
THEREFORE...THE EXACT WIND PATTERN ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IS
CURRENTLY UNKNOWN FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES EARLY
MONDAY...ALLOWING SLY FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
A COASTAL FLOOD PROBLEM...AS IT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH
TIDES. WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE W/SW...WASH CHANNEL MIGHT GET
CLOSE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BOTH HIGH TIDES ON SATURDAY. THE MORNING
IS A CONCERN SINCE IT IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO...THE EVENING IS A
WORRY SINCE SOME MODELS SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SENDING WATER UP THE BAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN SHORE AND
POTOMAC. NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES JUST YET THOUGH.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...WITT/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1132 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
181000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1132 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-181000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1132 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HTS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>