Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CNVCTN ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MOVG EWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE AMS ATTM.
INTENSITY CONTS TO INCR...AND CVRG SHUD FOLLOW SUIT AS STRONG
HEATING OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF EWD-MOVG COMPLEX. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
MAY FORM ALONG MSTR DISCONTINUITY BNDRY OVER ERN THIRD OF FCST
AREA...E OF WHICH DEWPTS IN LWR 70S ARE COMMON. CAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG ARE XPCD. DESPITE MODEST SHEAR OF 20-25 KT...STG UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WX /LRG HAIL AND DMGG WINDS/ XPCD.

CNVCTN MAY CONT TNGT...BUT IN LESSER CVRG AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF
APRCHS. CDFNT WILL MOVE ACRS WV LATE TNGT AND APRCH FCST AREA DURG
THE MRNG. SFC TROF WILL DVLP DURG THE MRNG TMW AND MAY FOCUS
CNVCTN ONCE AGAIN IN UNSTABLE AMS AHEAD OF CDFNT. CDFNT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS THRU FCST AREA SUN AFTN...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN AN
AFTN ROUND OF SVR WX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND ERY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUN NGT. BEHIND THE FRONT...
NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AS
CANADIAN HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGH TEMPS MON AND TUE WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. AFTER MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
MON...INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MON NGT AND TUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST WED NGT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VLY APPROACHES THU INTO FRI. THU HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE AN INTERESTING WEATHER DAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION
COMES TO FRUITION. THIS MODEL RUN DEPICTS SFC LOPRES CROSSING THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE A WARM FRONT IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA.
STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AND VARIABLES THIS FAR OUT TO JUMP ON A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MAY SLOW
DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE
TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE KEPT LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRI. ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS...WEAK
HIPRES TRIES TO BUILD IN AT THE SFC SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THRUOUT THE PERIOD AND NO BIG HEAT WAVE IS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CNVCTN WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTN THRU EARLY THIS EVE AS
TSTM COMPLEX MOVES EWD INTO VERY UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY-SHEARED AMS.
DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LRG HAIL ARE PSBL.

SCT CNVCTN MAY CONT TNGT IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG SHRTWV TROF...BUT
INTENSITY SHUD BE LESSER THAN THIS AFTN. LINGERING MOIST AMS MAY
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BKN CIGS AOA 1.5 KFT AND MVFR FOG SUN MRNG AT
ERN TERMINALS. SFC TROF WILL DVLP SUN MRNG AND MAY FOCUS CNVCTV
INITIATION SUN AFTN PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF CDFNT LATE SUN AFTN.

CONVECTION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SUN EVE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. A SURGE OF NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE SUN NGT...WHICH WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN FROM CANADA.

&&

.MARINE...
TSTMS APRCHG ERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA WILL BE MOVG INTO INCRGLY
UNSTABLE AMS AS THEY APRCH WATERS. SVR WX XPCD...LKLY REQUIRING
SPCL MARINE WRNGS FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT.
CNVCTN MAY CONT THIS EVE.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS LKLY TO FORM SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES RGN. SVR
WX AGAIN MAY OCCUR DURG THAT TIME.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE WATERS SUN EVE. A SURGE OF NW WINDS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 20-25 KT GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT OVNGT. THEREFORE
A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE MD CHSPK BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC STARTING AT 2 AM MON MRNG. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO MON AFTN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LVLS MON NGT
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537>543.

&&

KRAMAR/KLEIN

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