Gale Warning 16, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
228 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS QUICKLY PRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT WILL HOVER TO THE NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVRNGT-TODAY/...

TOR WTCH NOW IN EFFECT E OF THE BLUE RDG TIL 10 AM E OF THE MTNS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS THE LN OF STORMS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE RNK
CWA TRACKING NE. THIS WL MOST LKLY NOT AFFECT THE NW CORNER OF THE
WATCH AREA (FREDERICK MD AREA).

PRVS...

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE. SO WHILE THE MOISTURE SHOWN ON THE 00Z IAD WAS
REPRESENTATIVE AT THE TIME IT WILL NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO BE APPROACHING 50
EAST OF THE MTNS BY THAT TIME...AND PW VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT...BUT ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS LESSENED SOME GIVEN
LESS THAN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

PERHAPS OF MORE CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK GIVEN INCREASED
PWS AND ADVANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WILL ADD MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN GRIDS. OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE
AREAS WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND THEN EAST TOWARD THE URBAN CORRIDOR.

TUE- THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CHSPK BAY BY MID MRNG. SHOWERS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT THRU MIDDAY
/MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/ UNTIL THE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THRU. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TOMORROW. STEEP LAPSE RATES OWING TO STRONG CAA AND
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD EFFICIENTLY BRING DOWN 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS TO
THE SFC.

HIGH TEMPS IN MOST PLACES WILL OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH TEMPS
QUICKLY DROPPING DURING THE ERY MRNG BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A BIT ONCE SUNSHINE BREAKS THRU DURING THE AFTN...BUT AFTN
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THRU THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE 50S IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COOL COLUMN ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO SNOW ERY TUE MRNG ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT BECOME LIGHTER
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT...PRIMARILY ABOVE 2.5 KFT. LESS ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ACROSS
LOWER RIDGE TOPS AS SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD CAA WL CONT TUE EVNG...BUT BLDG LLVL RDG AND REDUCED MIXING
POTENTIAL DUE TO SUNSET WL IMPACT /IE...REDUCE/ NW WNDS. THAT RDG
AXIS WL BE UPON US ARND MIDNGT...W/ RTN FLOW BEING REALIZED OVNGT...
SPCLY IN THE MTNS. SHUD HV SOME MID-DECK CLDS THERE. IT/LL BE MOCLR
TO THE E. BASED ON STRONG MOS SUPPORT...HV REDUCED MIN-T BY A CPL
PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE.

SFC HIPRES WL RESIDE S OF CWFA WED-WED NGT WHILE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
WL OVERRIDE RDG TO THE N. THAT/LL PRODUCE A GRADIENT ACRS AREA... W/
SCT SHRA PSBL NRN MD/ERN WVA AND PERHAPS NRN SHEN VLY...BUT
MOSUN/DRY CHO-EZF-NHK. MOS TEMP FCSTS LWR-MID 60S FOR HIGHS...
LWR-MID 40S FOR LOWS. HV NO GROUNDS TO DISAGREE.

EFFECTS OF WAA WL MIX TO SFC BY THU...AND WL FCST MAXT NEAR 70F.
STILL MAY BE A FEW SHRA...BUT HV REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THAT
OCCURRING...SINCE FORCING IS MEAGER AND INSTBY SEEMS TO BE LACKING.
HV CONFINED POPS TO THE PTMC HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT AREAS...WHERE
TERRAIN MAY PLAY A ROLE IN TRIGGERING PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONT WL DROP BACK ACRS AREA THU NGT AND THEN REMAIN STALLED ACRS
AREA THRU THE XNTDD PERIOD. THERE WILL BE IMPULSES GLIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHRA CHANCES AS
WELL AS BE REPONSIBLE FOR OSCILLATIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS LOPRES AIMING FOR THE GRTLKS
INSTEAD OF MID ALTC...WHICH WOULD PULL FNT NWD AS A WMFNT. THAT WUD
IN TURN LEAD TO THE WARMEST NIGHT/DAY AREAWIDE ON SUN NGT-MONDAY
/MIN-T NEAR 60F AND MAXT NEAR 80F/. PRIOR TO THAT...MAXT IN THE 70S
LKLY ONLY S OF BNDRY...AND ITS A LTL TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL BE. HWVR...MAXT N OF THE BNDRY WONT BE TOO
SHABBY EITHER...NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM OF LWR-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
LATER ON THIS EVENING. INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SOME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN/EXPAND EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. HAD LOW CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT 00Z ISSUANCE...BUT DEGRADED TO MVFR. WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OCCURS WITH THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU TUE NGT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHRA WED-THU
INVOF WMFNT...PRIMARILY IMPACTING MRB/BWI/MTN. CUD BE VERY BRIEF
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...OTRW CIGS/VSBYS SHUD REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR. FLGT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA APPEAR A LTL MORE PROBABLE THU-
FRI AS FNT DROPS BACK SWD ACRS AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM A LOW
LEVEL JET. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT...MAYBE EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN
/35 KT/.

HV XTNDD SCA THRU 8PM TUE AREAWIDE...AND THRU 5AM WED MRNG FOR
LWR PTMC AND MD CHSPK BAY BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL IN
WAKE OF CDFNT AND AHD OF BLDG RDG.

MAOR WL BE BTWN HIPRES TO THE S AND WMFNT OHD/TO THE N. SHUD BE A
GOOD SSWLY GRADIENT FLOW ON WED. SCA CONDS PSBL...BUT TYPICALLY THIS
SETUP WUDNT PRODUCE THRESHOLD WNDS...SPCLY CONSIDERING WATER TEMPS
NEAR 50F. THE FNT WL THEN BE OSCILLATING ACRS WATERS THRU FRI. THINK
WNDS WL PRIMARILY BE AOB 10 KT...W/ A PREDOMINATE ELY TRAJ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>040-503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ055-501>503-
     505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

UPDATE...WOODY!

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