Gale Warning 12, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
808 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENTLY DEALING A VARIETY OF WEATHER HAZARDS THIS EVE INCLUDING
ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS...GUSTY WINDS...STRONG TSTMS APPROACHING
THE NRN NECK AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MTS.

ENDING TIMES OF FLOOD WATCH NOW ADJUSTED TO 9 PM FOR THE
CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND MIDNIGHT FOR THE GREATER DC AND BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS AS THERE IS STILL A CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
ROAD CLOSURES FROM OVERFLOWING CREEKS AND STREAMS.

AS OF 730 PM...RA HAS CHANGED TO SN ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WINTER WX ADVISORY GOES UNTIL LATE EVE FOR THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/WRN MD WITH 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. FROM THE
SHENANDOAH VLY/ERN WV PANHANDLE TO THE BLUE RIDGE...ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVE. RA MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS FAR EAST AS
THE FAR N/W SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THESE AREAS BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS LOWER SRN MD AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THESE WINDS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY RESIDES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS OF 3 PM. HEAVIEST RAIN WAS ALIGNED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHLANDS. THIS IS WHERE RAIN HAS CHANGED TO
SNOW...AND WITH A FEW HOURS OF MOISTURE LEFTOVER BEHIND THE
FRONT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND THIS HEADLINE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

ALSO WILL HAVE WATCH OUT FOR ANY LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DOWN
IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. CANT RULE OUT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COMING DOWN ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDER ACROSS THIS AREA.

MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT...AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW
SUIT AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN SWEPT AWAY...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THIS
WILL AID IN MIXING AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH MAY OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MED-LONG RANGE. THE MAIN FEATURE
CONTINUES TO BE THE LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM /SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
ONE/...PASSING OVER THE MID ATLC ON THU. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ORGANIZE EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE MON INTO TUE. BY WED...THE
STORM WILL BE AT MAXIMUM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VLY TOWARD THE CHICAGOLAND AREA.

AT THIS STAGE...A STRONG UPPER VORT WILL SWING IN FROM BEHIND /FROM
THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES/...HELPING TO KEEP THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM
FROM DISSIPATING TOO MUCH. THE UPPER VORT WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE MID
MS VLY WED INTO WED NIGHT. SEEMINGLY W/ EACH RUN OF MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...THIS VORT DEEPENS EVEN FURTHER - NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

IF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...THEN A NEW SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN APLCNS AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE VA TIDEWATER
REGION. THIS WOULD MAXIMIZE THE CHANCES FOR BETTER FORCING W/ A
STRONGER AND CLOSER SFC LOW NEAR THE CWA. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW...BUT TSTMS CHANCES WOULD BE
LIMITED FOR THIS SYSTEM/S PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID ATLC.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE EXIT /OR LACK THEREOF/ OF THE
UPPER LOW. 12Z GFS WRAPPING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW UP OFF THE COAST
AND KEEPING THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VLY. HOW
CLOSE THESE TWO SYSTEMS GET TO EACH OTHER WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE
KEEP CLOUDY/DRIZZLY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR NEXT
WEEKEND BEFORE THE OHIO VLY LOW/S PASSAGE.

HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...TUE AND
WED WILL BE QUIET WX-WISE W/ A TRANSITION HIGH PRESSURE PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE THU SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLIER AT CHO AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW HAS CHANGED RA OVER TO SN AT MRB.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF SN THIS
EVE. SN SHOULD END BETWEEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. RA MAY MIX OR CHANGE
TO SN AT IAD JUST BEFORE IT ENDS BETWEEN 03-05Z. OTHER CONCERN IS
STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT THIS EVE. THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
NORTHWEST WIND STILL MAY GUST AOA 20 KT.

TUE AND WED WILL BE QUIET...W/ STEADY CLOUD DECKS COMING IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE/WED
AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLC DURING THE DAY ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT
TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HIGHER GUSTS LOCALLY
TRANSPORTED DOWN IF ANY LINEAR CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF THIS
OCCURRED IT WOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION AND COVERED BY SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON TUE BEHIND AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER OVER THE WATERS INTO
WED...THOUGH SELY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
THU...W/ POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS BEFORE AND DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN HAS NOW WEAKENED...AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE
STEADY RAIN IS NOW PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 01Z HAVE RANGED FROM ONE
TO TWO INCHES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST OF I-95...WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EXCEPT IN
A FEW LOCATIONS IN HIGHLAND...PENDLETON...AND AUGUSTA COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO A QUARTER INCH IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DELAY THE
RECEEDING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS UNTIL MID TO LATE EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MINOR
FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. ANOMALIES WILL
AVERAGE 1.5 FEET. AS WINDS SHIFT THIS EVENING BEHIND A
FRONT...WATER LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE FOR THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ501-502.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-
     013-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ007-
     011-013-014-016>018.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ503-504.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ042-052>054-501-
     502.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ052>055-057.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ037>040-051.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050-055-501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

UPDATE...KLEIN
PREV DISC...BPP/GMS/JCE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
908 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     FLOOD            5 E EARLYSVILLE         38.16N  78.39W
03/06/2011                   ALBEMARLE          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ON WATTS PASSAGE RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100126

WOODY!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
918 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLOOD            NW STANARDSVILLE        38.30N  78.44W
03/06/2011                   GREENE             VA   911 CALL CENTER

            DYKE RD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. 5 BRIDGES IN THE
            COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100127

WOODY!