Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Baltimore/Washington

266 
WGUS71 KLWX 180739
FFSLWX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

VAC003-079-165-540-180749-
/O.EXP.KLWX.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-110518T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VA-GREENE VA-ALBEMARLE VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
339 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 345 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ROCKINGHAM...ALBEMARLE...WEST CENTRAL GREENE AND CITY OF
CHARLOTTESVILLE COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3833 7885 3845 7872 3800 7830 3783 7846

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL DRIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A NARROW SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISA CO VA TO HARDY CO WV...MOVING NW...AND
THE WHOLE SWATH DRIFTING NORTH.

VORT LOBE THAT CROSSED THE CWA TODAY IS NOW OBSERVED IN WATER
VAPOR OVER THE ERN OH VLY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING TO OUR
WEST. ELY SFC FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE TIME BEING...EXPIRES AT 2 AM. DC WAS
ADDED TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...SEE COASTAL FLOOD SECTION
BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TOMORROW WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSER. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FEATURE GIVES OUR REGION A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MORE SLY THAN SELY.

HIGHS/LOWS AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW AS
WELL...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LIT LIGHTER THAN TODAY /SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO OVER THE
WRN SHORE/BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED UPR LOW WILL MAKE SLOW NWD MVMT ACRS WV WED NGT. VORTICITY
MAXIMUM THAT WILL APRCH FCST AREA WED AFTN WILL CROSS WED NGT.
ACTIVE WX XPCD WED AS THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSES...BUT PCPN
WILL SUBSIDE WED NGT IN ITS WAKE.

UPR LOW WILL CROSS FCST AREA THU. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
MAY LEAD TO INCRD INSTBY THU AFTN AMID CONTD MOIST LOW-LVL AMS...
WHICH WILL HELP TO INVIGORATE CNVCTN DURG PEAK HEATING. ANY PCPN
SHUD WANE BY THU MRNG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DP NWLY FLOW WILL ENSUE IN WAKE OF UPR LOW ON FRI. SUFFICIENT
HEATING IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MAY GENERATE LMTD INSTBY AND SCT
SHWRS BEFORE SUBSIDENCE LEADS TO DRYING OF THE COLUMN.

FCST AREA WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF UPR RDG FRI NGT-SAT NGT. NO
PCPN XPCD DURG THIS TIME. UPR RDG AXIS WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA
SUN AFTN AS LOW-LVL MSTR INCRS. CNVCTN MAY DVLP SUN AFTN IN WRN
ZONES AMID INCRG MID- AND UPR-LVL FLOW. TSTM CHCS INCR MON AS
AN APRCHG SHRTWV TROF JOINS THE MIX.

MAXIMA THRU THE WKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MINIMA WILL BE
IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S OWING TO HIGH BNDRY LYR MSTR CONTENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG A LINE FROM KLKU TO KW99 AND
DRIFTING NORTH. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
AREA WITH ELY SFC FLOW. LOW CIGS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT IN
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. TOWARD MID- MORNING WED...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE LOWER CIGS. MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS TOMORROW.

DAILY CNVCTN MAY LEAD TO SUB-VFR CIGS WED NGT-THU NGT. VFR CONDS
AND NO SGFNT WX XPCD DURG THE WKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ELY FLOW GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT...SCA UP UNTIL 2 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. FLOW EASES REST OF TONIGHT...NO HEADLINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WATER LEVELS
TO 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW FOR UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC /ALEXANDRIA AND
WASHINGTON DC/ AND THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MD PORTION OF THE
BAY...ADZY ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC. ADZY IN PLACE FOR
ALL COASTAL AREAS WED EVENING SINCE THAT HIGH TIDE IS THE LESSER
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DCZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ003>005-501-
     502.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ007-011-
     014-017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ007-011-014-017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ013-016.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050-051-056-501>504.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ054.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ054.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ052-053-
     055-057.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     536>543.

&&

UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GMS/KRAMAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
181500-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE
/FFALWX/ FOR DETAILS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE
/CFWLWX/ FOR DETAILS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM INDIAN HEAD TO
SMITH POINT UNTIL 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE /CFWLWX/ FOR DETAILS.

A FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE.

FRESHWATER INPUT FROM THE POTOMAC RIVER...INCLUDING A LITTLE FALLS
CREST AROUND 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOOD
CONCERNS FOR THE FAR UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...PARTICULARLY AROUND
HIGH TIDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE RELAY
RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOOD REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN STERLING.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-181500-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
1048 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND TORNADOES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO THE LATEST HAZARD MESSAGE
/FFALWX/ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE RELAY
RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING.

JACKSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
836 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW MAUGANSVILLE      39.69N  77.76W
05/17/2011                   WASHINGTON         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWN AND SHINGLES OFF ROOF... TRAINED
            SPOTTER OBSERVED TORNADO

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100652

HAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             1 SE HAYFIELD           39.22N  78.28W
05/17/2011  M1.00 INCH       FREDERICK          VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100653

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             3 SW HAYFIELD           39.20N  78.32W
05/17/2011  E1.00 INCH       FREDERICK          VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100654

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VAZ027-029-039-040-180230-
MADISON VA-PAGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-SHENANDOAH VA-
951 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MADISON...PAGE...RAPPAHANNOCK AND
SHENANDOAH COUNTIES...

AT 952 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHENANDOAH CAVERNS TO
CRIGLERSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MOUNT JACKSON...LURAY AND SPERRYVILLE.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE
MILE AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3867 7818 3853 7821 3853 7823 3852 7821
      3842 7828 3865 7868 3895 7865
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 172DEG 23KT 3869 7864 3848 7831

SBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1023 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

VAZ027-WVZ055-180315-
SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-
1023 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH AND HARDY COUNTIES...

AT 1023 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF JEROME TO KINGS CROSSING...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LOST RIVER...HARMONY...LOST CITY...
MAURERTOWN...WOODSTOCK...PERRY...TOMS BROOK...BAKER...BEAN SETTLEMENT
AND MCCAULEY.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 7837 3878 7845 3875 7847 3872 7851
      3872 7853 3873 7855 3872 7857 3886 7882
      3918 7887
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 169DEG 28KT 3891 7875 3877 7851

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1101 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LYDIA                   38.33N  78.49W
05/17/2011                   GREENE             VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SPOTSWOOD TRAIL CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100655

SBK