Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Lubbock, TX

310 
WWUS54 KLUB 082319
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

TXC125-263-433-082330-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-110608T2330Z/
DICKENS TX-KENT TX-STONEWALL TX-
619 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
STONEWALL...NORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN DICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES 
WEST OF JAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT 
LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND JAYTON AND GIRARD...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 70.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE 
COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 10084 3352 10058 3341 10052 3340 10052
      3340 10050 3321 10039 3316 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 231DEG 16KT 3330 10063

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...
HOT/NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE TEENS OUT WEST TO THE LOW 50S IN THE
EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN VICINITY THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
CONVECTION WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SBCAPE ~1000 J/KG...SO
WHILE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE GROUND WILL NOT
BE HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT...IT IS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER YESTERDAY/S
SITUATION WHICH YIELDED VIRGA SHOWERS. A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IF AN UPDRAFT CAN REALIZE THE MODEST
INSTABILITY ATOP THE DEEPLY MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND THE
DRYLINE WILL MAKE A MODEST RETREAT ONTO THE LLANO ESTACADO.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE MINIMA WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STRONGER EASTWARD MIX OF THE DRYLINE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE THE WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS REMAIN
HIGH AND DRY. YET A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THICKNESSES SHOULD PROVIDE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOL DOWN...BUT STILL AOA 100 DEGREES F IN LUBBOCK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE
OFF THE CAPROCK. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAY BE AIDED BY SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM A
WEAK SPEED MAX AT 250MB NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOCUSED IN THE PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO
RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD THAT EVENING WHICH WOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO STRONG LIFT FROM A LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE LLJ OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT...MOSTLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
THEREFORE...BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT WILL
REMAIN OFF THE CAPROCK INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE AREA TOWARDS
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  58  91  60 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         65  98  65  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     66  98  65  94  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65 100  65  99  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       72 101  68 100  69 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65 100  68 102  69 /  10  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    67 100  68 101  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     73 103  72  99  70 /  20  20  20  10  20
SPUR          69 101  70 102  70 /  20  20  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     74 102  73 103  73 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

20/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1117 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

TXZ021>044-091630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1117 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
SILVERTON TO DICKENS TO O'DONNELL LINE. ALTHOUGH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BRING LITTLE RAINFALL...THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION
CORES ALOFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF AND LOCALIZED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER

VERY HOT AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

TXZ037-043-082300-
DICKENS-KENT-
528 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENT AND SOUTHERN DICKENS
COUNTIES...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF
JAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

TXZ025-026-031-032-082315-
CHILDRESS-COTTLE-HALL-MOTLEY-
546 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTLE...CHILDRESS...MOTLEY AND
HALL COUNTIES...

AT 541 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
CHILDRESS...CEE VEE...NORTHFIELD AND TURKEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE DEVELOPING
STORMS...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND HIT AND MISS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
559 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

TXZ037-038-043-044-082330-
DICKENS-KENT-KING-STONEWALL-
559 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STONEWALL...KING...KENT AND
DICKENS COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR DICKENS TO JUST
NORTH OF CLAIREMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.