Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Lubbock, TX

219 
WWUS84 KLUB 172053
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042-180200-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110318T0200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-
COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
353 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH AT
THE 20 FOOT LEVEL AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP UNDER 10 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 12 TO 16 MPH RANGE...WHICH IS
BELOW NORMAL RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE
NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION
WILL STILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

661 
WWUS84 KLUB 180000
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042-180100-
/O.CAN.KLUB.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110318T0200Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-
COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
700 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL HAVE CURTAILED THE
THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS EVENING...THEREFORE THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...
AT 3 AM... THE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MORTON NEWD TO NEAR
DIMMITT. IT HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT AS LOW-LVL WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE SW. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
ABILENE AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THE CAPROCK BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE ON PAST THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES TO
25C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FOR ST. PATRICK/S DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. THE RECORD HIGH IN
LUBBOCK FOR TODAY IS 89 DEGREES IN 1989 AND IN CHILDRESS IT IS 97
DEGREES BACK IN THE 1907. WHILE THE RECORD AT CHILDRESS IS PROBABLY
OUT OF REACH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TO BREAK THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK
WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. PATCHY CIRRUS IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING...BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL SHIFT
EAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  THIS
EVENING...THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT WESTWARD IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN WITH LESS WWD RETREAT ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN THE PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED
SW-NE TILT TO THE DRYLINE BY EARLY FRI MORNING. MOST OF THE CAPROCK
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL OFF QUICKLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRYLINE
RETREATS AND THUS THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRI MORNING FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE
WARM...MOIST AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE MOVES OVER THE COOLER SFC. WE
HAVE LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF TIMING/EXTENT OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING FOR TOMORROW. MODELS NOW DELAY THE FRONT UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE MOST APPARENT AFFECT FROM THIS
WILL BE A VERY WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR A SECOND DAY. THE AREA COULD SEE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. INITIAL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE BRIEF BUT STRONG WITH THE PASSAGE.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ON THE CAPROCK WITH SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE OFF THE CAPROCK ALMOST CONCURRENT WITH THE FORCING.
ADDITIONALLY...MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK WITH SOME MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY EVENING IT WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND THEN RETREAT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE STILL
SOME MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECM SHOW DECENT FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION KEEPS LITTLE FORCING
WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING IN NEW MEXICO. ALSO...THE SREF SIDES
MORE WITH THE GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY COULD SEE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THIS SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. JDV

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SW PANHANDLE/WRN SPLNS THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FA DURING THE DAY...LEAVING A VERY WARM AND
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES WHICH WILL REPRESENT RECORD WARMTH
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...RH VALUES WILL DROP
UNDER 10 PERCENT FOR THE WHOLE ARE EXCEPT THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL NOT BE STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS LIKELY
AROUND 12-16 MPH AT THE 20 FT LEVEL...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
NW SPLNS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ABOVE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND TRENDS IN RECENT FIRE
ACTIVITY...THE TFS HAS REQUESTED THAT A RFW BE ISSUED. THUS WE WILL
UPGRADE OUR WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  43  81  39  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         88  44  84  43  67 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     89  45  86  44  68 /   0   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     89  45  84  44  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       91  48  84  47  70 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENVER CITY   89  50  86  47  76 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    90  49  85  46  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     92  52  88  50  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
SPUR          92  51  87  50  71 /   0   0  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  55  90  53  72 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>037-039>041.

&&

33/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
922 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011

TXZ021>044-171430-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
922 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AS BREEZY WINDS COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.