Red Flag Warning 46, NWS Lubbock, TX

110 
WWUS84 KLUB 171943
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
243 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

TXZ021-027-028-033>035-039>041-180100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0046.000000T0000Z-111018T0100Z/
PARMER-BAILEY-LAMB-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-
243 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS...

* WIND...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 20 TO 25
  MPH THIS AFTERNOON. A SHARP NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING
  WIND SPEEDS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
  THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
  AROUND 10 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...OR
  ABOUT 15 PERCENT ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL
  AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

* IMPACTS...ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. IN 
  ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP NORTHERLY 
  WIND SHIFT WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT ANY ONGOING 
  FIREFIGHTING OPERATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...
BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED E-W ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WITH A SFC TROUGH TRAILING SW INTO SE NM.
THIS SFC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS FILLING IN IN ITS WAKE ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION TO HEIGHTENING THE FIRE
DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW/ WE WILL ALSO SEE AREA OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY
STRONG...GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. HOWEVER...WEAK SFC RIDGING
WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS NE ZONES...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER
THERE AS LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES BLOW FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK AROUND
CHILDRESS TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE EMERGES ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...A REINFORCING SHOT OF SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE COLD FRONT
BLASTING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. LATE WRF-NAM DEPICTS 8-10 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES RIDING
DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AND ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN
21Z AND 06Z. THIS...COMBINED WITH 40+ KT LLJ...WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING ACROSS THE NORTHERLY
ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY REQUIRE
THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY LATER TODAY FOR PARTS OR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY MORNING VARYING FROM THE MID OR UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY
AFTER THIS RECENT WARMTH. HOWEVER...THINK WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW ZONES TONIGHT.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE APPROACH OF THE UA DISTURBANCE
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ACCENT...FAVORING THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
UNFORTUNATELY...THOUGH...RELATIVELY LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROPA A DRY ONE...WITH BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA /INTO NORTH TEXAS/ LATE
TODAY...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO WORK
WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE ARE EXPECTING A COOL...BLUSTERY DAY ON TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE EARLY IN THE MORNING...STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AFTER SUNRISE
AND WE/LL LOOK FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE
INTO THE 60S BY AFTERNOON AND THE NRLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
COOLER. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND WE
EXPECT THEM TO GO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
AFTER DARK WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY
AIR WORKING IN THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD DROP
UNDER 40F ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS...WHETHER
OR NOT WE WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR NRN AND WRN ZONES IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. PROGGED TEMPS BY GUIDANCE ARE IN THE 33 TO 38
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE WARM
GIVEN EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. ONE FACTOR FAVORING THE
WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPS MAY BE IF WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE ABOVE 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE. AT
THIS POINT WE HAVE MIN TEMPS AROUND 32F TO 35 AND FROST WORDING
IN THE GRIDS...AND A MENTION OF NEAR-FRZG TEMPS IN AN SPS FOR THIS
AREA. SO WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OTHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON WED...ALTHOUGH A BACKDOOR PUSH OF
COOL AIR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL TEMPER THE WARM UP OFF THE
CAPROCK. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THURSDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
AND ALSO ALLOWING COOL AIR TO BRIEFLY BRIDGE BACK INTO THE
CWA...BUT TEMPS TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
OR TWO WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUN...BUT THEIR ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE TO INCREASE HIGH-LVL
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS DRAG A WEAK FRONT BACK INTO OUR
AREA...STALLING OUT THE WARM UP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING ALONG AND
WEST OF A FRIONA TO LUBBOCK TO TAHOKA LINE. UNSEASONABLY HOT /10-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ AND DRY /RH VALUES FALLING TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS/ AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK TODAY AS
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. 20 FT WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...WHICH WHEN
COUPLED WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...WILL
RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO AS A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER...WINDS LIGHTER AND FROM A
NORTHERLY PERSUASION...AND HUMIDITIES HIGHER. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS /SUSTAINED IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE/ WHICH COULD CREATE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFICULTIES FOR ANY ONGOING FIREFIGHTING OPERATIONS.
HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER AIR AND IMPROVING HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO QUICKLY
ADVECT IN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BRINGING AN END TO ANY RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  36  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         80  39  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     83  39  64  35  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     90  41  65  35  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       90  42  65  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   92  41  66  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    92  42  66  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     80  44  66  42  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          87  45  66  38  70 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  47  68  42  70 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027-028-033>035-039>041.

&&

23/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
343 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

TXZ021>044-172045-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
343 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA ON
MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 27 AND HIGHWAY 87
CORRIDOR.

STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH. BLOWING
DUST ALSO MAY DEVELOP.

IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.