Alert archive / Texas / Red Flag Warnings in 2011
Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Lubbock, TX
NWS Lubbock, TX issued this red flag warning at Apr 6, 2011, 3:45 AM CDT for 24 counties in Texas. It took effect at Apr 7, 2011, 12:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 8 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 6, 2011, 3:45 AM CDT (08:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 7, 2011, 12:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Apr 7, 2011, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Lubbock, TX
All 24 counties
Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2:25 PM CDT | NON-TSTM WND GST 59 | 5 Ene Abernathy, TX | POSSIBLE DUST DEVIL. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 5454 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 194 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 290 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
795 WWUS84 KLUB 060845 RFWLUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 345 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011 TXZ043-044-062100- /O.UPG.KLUB.FW.A.0016.110406T1500Z-110407T0100Z/ /O.UPG.KLUB.FW.A.0017.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KLUB.FW.W.0014.110406T1500Z-110407T0100Z/ KENT-STONEWALL- 345 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY...DUE TO 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. YET STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ TXZ021>042-062100- /O.UPG.KLUB.FW.A.0017.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0014.110406T1500Z-110407T0100Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA- 345 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY...DUE TO 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. YET STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. && PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$
5 follow-up statements
685 WWUS84 KLUB 062029 RFWLUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 329 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011 TXZ021>025-027>030-033>036-039>042-070300- /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110407T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN- HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA- 329 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011 ...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES...BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... WHILE STRONGER WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ TXZ026-031-032-037-038-043-044-070300- /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110407T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ CHILDRESS-MOTLEY-COTTLE-DICKENS-KING-KENT-STONEWALL- 329 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011 ...A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WHICH COULD COMPLICATE FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. ON THURSDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$
034 WWUS84 KLUB 070139 RFWLUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 839 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011 TXZ021>025-027>030-033>036-039>042-071100- /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN- HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA- 839 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011 ...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE STRONGER WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ TXZ026-031-032-037-038-043-044-071100- /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ CHILDRESS-MOTLEY-COTTLE-DICKENS-KING-KENT-STONEWALL- 839 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011 ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WHICH COULD COMPLICATE FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. ON THURSDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$
096 WWUS84 KLUB 070930 RFWLUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 430 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011 TXZ021>025-027>030-033>036-039>042-071730- /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/ /O.EXT.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1700Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN- HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA- 430 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THAN NORMAL...WHICH WILL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO BETWEEN 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST. GUSTY WINDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$ TXZ026-031-032-037-038-043-044-071730- /O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/ /O.EXT.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1700Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ CHILDRESS-MOTLEY-COTTLE-DICKENS-KING-KENT-STONEWALL- 430 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER. TODAY...RELATIVELY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL...WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. $$
460 WWUS84 KLUB 071726 RFWLUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011 TXZ021>044-080100- /O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011 ...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH... RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THAN NORMAL...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH EVEN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY THREATEN THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO REMAIN EXTREME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. $$
165 WWUS84 KLUB 080107 RFWLUB URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 807 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011 TXZ021>044-081100- /O.EXP.KLUB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110408T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/ PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 807 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011 ...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DUE TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY THREATEN THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO REMAIN EXTREME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Apr 6, 3:19 AM CDT, 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 3:19 AM CDT, 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 319 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011 .SHORT TERM... FAIRLY WOUND UP LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA IS PROGGED TO FILL AND QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE SRN CONUS BRINGING WITH IT HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER SIDE OF THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. POLAR JET REMAINS IN A NEARLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE COUNTRY THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES ENHANCED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. H7 WIND MAX WILL BE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN CO. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE CHILDRESS AREA BY MID DAY. SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE FUNNELING WESTERLY WINDS YIELDING VERY DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE PANHANDLE BUT WITH THE ABSORPTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE MAIN STREAM...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE LARGELY IMPEDED WITH THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ONLY SEEING ITS EFFECTS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAVE TENDED TOWARD THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND VERY DRY. INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL UPPER MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST LIFT EVIDENT IN OMEGA AND DIV-Q FIELDS WHICH LOOK TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SURFACE WINDS AS DCAPES BELOW THESE FEATURES ACCELERATE DOWNWARD MOTION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND MILDLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL TREND LOWS UPWARD TO MAINLY 50S WEST AND NEAR 60 EAST. && .LONG TERM... FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND LOW TO HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS. UA LOW OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DWINDLE WHILE PROPAGATING NE ACROSS THE DESERT SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS INDUCING SLIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION WILL AID TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS NEARING THE FAR EASTERN AND SERN ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT QPF VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES NE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DEPICTED MORE SO BY THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHERE AS THE NAM AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC IN THIS REGARD. WILL TEND TO FAVOR SILENT POPS ATTM AS MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEING MORE OF A PROBABILITY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANY MOISTURE REMNANTS QUICKLY GETS SHIFTED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO THE EASTWARD SURGE OF THE DRYLINE. THUS SFC LEE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE CWA WILL CAUSE WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS...AS MOS GUIDANCE DISPLAYED WIND SPEEDS OF 29 AND 34 KTS AT KCDS AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY /WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CAPABLE OF FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...AND THUS UPGRADING THE CWA- WIDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING IS VALIDATED ATTM. BY FRIDAY...A NW PACIFIC UA SYSTEM WILL DIG SSE NEARING THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA...AND HENCE SHARPENING THE SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL INDUCE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS DEPICTED ON THURSDAY /25 KTS AT KLBB/. STILL...WELL ABOVE AVG TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RHS TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH BEST MOISTURE LOCATED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT A BIT WESTWARD ACROSS LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DEPICTIONS OF LIGHT QPF AND LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL INDUCE A SFC LEE TROUGH AND A QUICK EASTWARD SURGE OF THE DRYLINE. ABL MIXING APPEARS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN FRIDAY AND HENCE IS SHOWN VIA MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS /34 AND 33 KTS AT KLBB AND KCDS RESPECTIVELY/. INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS SATURDAY MORNING...SINCE MOISTURE HAS BEEN RATHER HARD TO COME BY AND THUS LOW CLOUDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY. BY SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A WAVE AND TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS /A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF/. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /25-30 KTS/ SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SHIFT BEST MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF DRIER AIR ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER DUE TO ITS PACIFIC ORIGINS /PLUS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER/. BY MONDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH A TRANSITION TO SLIGHT SW FLOW TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST-HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SHOWS THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE OTHER-HAND IS SLOWER WITH THE UA SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...WITH IT CLEARING THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE...ZONAL FLOW INITIATES ON TUESDAY INSTEAD OF MONDAY. TO SUMMARIZE...MOISTURE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS SFC LEE TROUGHING AND THE PROMINENT EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE COMMENCES. HOWEVER...EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ATTM...WITH HIGHEST BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS BEING SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. LOW TO HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS WILL ENSUE THIS WEEK...WITH FORECAST SOLUTIONS HONING IN ON THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DAYS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... DAY 1...THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STONEWALL AND KENT COUNTIES. GIVEN WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN COMBINATION WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUEL...SUBSTANTIVE GRASSLAND FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN QUITE POOR WITH VALUES ONLY MAKING IT TO THE LOWER 20 PCT RANGE AS OF 1 AM. WHILE WINDS TODAY MAY BE ON THE LOWER END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...RECENT FIRES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT VERY LITTLE IS NEEDED TO INDUCE RAPID FIRE SPREAD. WINDS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT HEIGHT THROUGH WITH THE POOR RECOVERIES...PROTRACTED PERIODS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN / EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING CREATING A WIND SHIFT HAZARD FOR ANY FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON THU-SUN. SFC LEE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND HENCE PROMOTE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DAYS BEING THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS UA TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AIDS TO STRENGTHEN ABL WIND SPEEDS. 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE ANTICIPATED HIGH END FIRE DANGER DAYS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH /EQUATING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEARING/EQUATING SINGLE DIGITS. DUE TO THE ABOVE CONDITIONS WITH THE ADDITION OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND APPARENT EASILY INITIATED WILDFIRES...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE CWA-WIDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON THURSDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 27 KTS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF A WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT IS WARRANTED FOR THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING HOWEVER THE DRYLINE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE AS IT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM /MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/ DESPITE THE PROPAGATION OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AND HENCE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. PROGGED 20-FOOT WINDS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAY ARE LESS THAN THE EXPECTED HIGH END FIRE WEATHER DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE BREEZY /BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH/. THUS WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE LATER MODEL RUNS AS A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR POSSIBLY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK...DUE TO THE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 83 49 81 43 80 / 0 10 10 0 10 TULIA 86 50 83 46 83 / 0 10 10 0 10 PLAINVIEW 88 54 84 47 81 / 0 10 10 0 10 LEVELLAND 90 55 86 48 84 / 0 10 10 0 10 LUBBOCK 90 56 86 51 86 / 0 10 10 0 10 DENVER CITY 90 54 86 50 84 / 0 10 10 0 10 BROWNFIELD 91 56 87 50 83 / 0 10 10 0 10 CHILDRESS 90 58 88 53 90 / 0 10 10 0 10 SPUR 94 61 88 54 89 / 0 10 10 0 10 ASPERMONT 95 61 89 56 90 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044. && 26/29
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 5, 7:10 PM CDT, 8 hours 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 710 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011 TXZ021>044-061200- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 710 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS BY THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. SIMILAR WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. JORDAN
The office that day
Everything else NWS Lubbock, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 3:29 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | LUB | Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cochran, Cottle and 18 more | 37 hr |
| Apr 6, 3:29 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | LUB | Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cochran, Cottle and 18 more | 48 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Texas, 2011Every red flag warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.