Alert archive / Texas / Red Flag Warnings in 2011

Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Lubbock, TX

April 6, 201124 counties in Texas

NWS Lubbock, TX issued this red flag warning at Apr 6, 2011, 3:45 AM CDT for 24 counties in Texas. It took effect at Apr 7, 2011, 12:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 8 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Apr 6, 2011, 3:45 AM CDT (08:45 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 7, 2011, 12:00 PM CDT
Expired
Apr 7, 2011, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Lubbock, TX
All 24 counties

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Apr 7, 2:25 PM CDTNON-TSTM WND GST 595 Ene Abernathy, TXPOSSIBLE DUST DEVIL.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2011-04-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2011-04-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 194 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
5454 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
290 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

795 
WWUS84 KLUB 060845
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011

TXZ043-044-062100-
/O.UPG.KLUB.FW.A.0016.110406T1500Z-110407T0100Z/
/O.UPG.KLUB.FW.A.0017.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KLUB.FW.W.0014.110406T1500Z-110407T0100Z/
KENT-STONEWALL-
345 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10
PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING 
PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM
CDT THURSDAY...DUE TO 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25
TO 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME
FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM
TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. YET STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME.


&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

TXZ021>042-062100-
/O.UPG.KLUB.FW.A.0017.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0014.110406T1500Z-110407T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
345 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10
PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING 
PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM
CDT THURSDAY...DUE TO 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25
TO 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME
FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. 

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. YET STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
685 
WWUS84 KLUB 062029
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

TXZ021>025-027>030-033>036-039>042-070300-
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110407T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
329 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME
FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES...BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT STRONGER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERY...MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

TXZ026-031-032-037-038-043-044-070300-
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110407T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
CHILDRESS-MOTLEY-COTTLE-DICKENS-KING-KENT-STONEWALL-
329 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...A COLD FRONT EDGING SOUTH THIS EVENING WILL BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 20
AND 25 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME
FIRE DANGER...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...AND
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FROM 10 AM
TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING
A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WHICH COULD
COMPLICATE FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. ON THURSDAY...STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM 20 
TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$
034 
WWUS84 KLUB 070139
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
839 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

TXZ021>025-027>030-033>036-039>042-071100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
839 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT 
THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS 
PANHANDLE DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH...RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND EXTREME
FIRE DANGER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WHILE STRONGER WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

TXZ026-031-032-037-038-043-044-071100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1500Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
CHILDRESS-MOTLEY-COTTLE-DICKENS-KING-KENT-STONEWALL-
839 PM CDT WED APR 6 2011

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT 
THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 
25 AND 30 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AND EXTREME 
FIRE DANGER...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING PRODUCING
A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WHICH COULD
COMPLICATE FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS. ON THURSDAY...STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM 20
TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME. THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY RAPID SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$
096 
WWUS84 KLUB 070930
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
430 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011

TXZ021>025-027>030-033>036-039>042-071730-
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/
/O.EXT.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1700Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-COCHRAN-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-
430 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10
PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10
PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE
TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35
MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE
DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE THAN NORMAL...WHICH WILL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL TO BETWEEN 5 TO 15 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
WILL EXIST. GUSTY WINDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHILE MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY
LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

TXZ026-031-032-037-038-043-044-071730-
/O.NEW.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/
/O.EXT.KLUB.FW.W.0015.110407T1700Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
CHILDRESS-MOTLEY-COTTLE-DICKENS-KING-KENT-STONEWALL-
430 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10
PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 10
PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE
TO 20 FOOT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25 TO 35
MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15 PERCENT...AND AN EXTREME FIRE
DANGER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

TODAY...RELATIVELY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL...WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RANGES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT. AS A
RESULT...A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WHILE STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY
LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$
460 
WWUS84 KLUB 071726
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011

TXZ021>044-080100-
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1226 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO 20 FOOT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT...AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION DUE TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE THAN NORMAL...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 10
TO 15 PERCENT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COMING
SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH EVEN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MAY THREATEN THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO REMAIN 
EXTREME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THESE
CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY...AND EXTREME
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
165 
WWUS84 KLUB 080107
RFWLUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
807 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011

TXZ021>044-081100-
/O.EXP.KLUB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110408T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0018.110408T1700Z-110409T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0019.110409T1700Z-110410T0100Z/
/O.CON.KLUB.FW.A.0020.110410T1700Z-110411T0100Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
807 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011

...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION DUE TO CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
EXTREME FIRE DANGER...

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
MAY THREATEN THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FIRE DANGER
WILL ALSO REMAIN EXTREME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED NATURE
OF THESE CONDITIONS...WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY...AND EXTREME CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Apr 6, 3:19 AM CDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 6, 3:19 AM CDT, 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 AM CDT WED APR 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY WOUND UP LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA IS PROGGED TO FILL AND
QUICKLY EJECT ACROSS THE SRN CONUS BRINGING WITH IT HIGH CLOUDINESS
WITH BEST LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  EITHER SIDE OF THIS
AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  POLAR JET REMAINS IN A NEARLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION
ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE COUNTRY THOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BECOMES ENHANCED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.  H7
WIND MAX WILL BE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF A
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SERN CO.  THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE CHILDRESS AREA BY MID DAY.  SOUTH OF
THE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE FUNNELING WESTERLY WINDS
YIELDING VERY DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.  COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
PANHANDLE BUT WITH THE ABSORPTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE
MAIN STREAM...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE LARGELY IMPEDED WITH THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST ONLY SEEING ITS EFFECTS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY
WIND SHIFT FOR A FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...BREEZY AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  HAVE TENDED TOWARD THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.  EITHER WAY...IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND VERY DRY.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL UPPER MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE
AREA WITH MODEST LIFT EVIDENT IN OMEGA AND DIV-Q FIELDS WHICH LOOK
TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SURFACE WINDS AS DCAPES BELOW THESE FEATURES ACCELERATE DOWNWARD MOTION.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND MILDLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WILL TREND LOWS
UPWARD TO MAINLY 50S WEST AND NEAR 60 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND LOW TO HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAYS.

UA LOW OFF THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DWINDLE
WHILE PROPAGATING NE ACROSS THE DESERT SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS
INDUCING SLIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION WILL AID
TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERHAPS NEARING THE
FAR EASTERN AND SERN ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT QPF
VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES NE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DEPICTED MORE SO BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHERE AS THE NAM AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC IN THIS REGARD. WILL TEND TO FAVOR SILENT POPS
ATTM AS MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEING MORE OF A PROBABILITY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ANY MOISTURE REMNANTS QUICKLY GETS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO THE EASTWARD SURGE OF THE DRYLINE. THUS
SFC LEE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE CWA WILL CAUSE WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY
SFC WINDS...AS MOS GUIDANCE DISPLAYED WIND SPEEDS OF 29 AND 34 KTS
AT KCDS AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY /WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/. AS A
RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CAPABLE OF FALLING BELOW
15 PERCENT...AND THUS UPGRADING THE CWA- WIDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO RED FLAG WARNING IS VALIDATED ATTM. BY FRIDAY...A NW PACIFIC UA
SYSTEM WILL DIG SSE NEARING THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA...AND HENCE
SHARPENING THE SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL INDUCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS DEPICTED ON
THURSDAY /25 KTS AT KLBB/. STILL...WELL ABOVE AVG TEMPS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RHS TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH BEST
MOISTURE LOCATED EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS.

THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT A BIT WESTWARD ACROSS LOCALES OFF THE
CAPROCK SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DEPICTIONS OF LIGHT QPF AND LOW-MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...THE
APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL INDUCE A
SFC LEE TROUGH AND A QUICK EASTWARD SURGE OF THE DRYLINE. ABL MIXING
APPEARS SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN FRIDAY AND HENCE IS SHOWN VIA MOS
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS /34 AND 33 KTS AT KLBB AND KCDS RESPECTIVELY/.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS SATURDAY MORNING...SINCE MOISTURE HAS BEEN RATHER
HARD TO COME BY AND THUS LOW CLOUDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY. BY
SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A WAVE AND TRANSLATE ESE ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS /A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS SHOWN VIA
THE ECMWF/. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO LOW
END WINDY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /25-30 KTS/ SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SHIFT BEST MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE CWA.
AGAIN THIS DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF
DRIER AIR ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER DUE TO ITS
PACIFIC ORIGINS /PLUS TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER/. BY
MONDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
REGION...WITH A TRANSITION TO SLIGHT SW FLOW TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
THANKS TO AN EMBEDDED PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FIRST-HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SHOWS THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE
OTHER-HAND IS SLOWER WITH THE UA SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...WITH IT
CLEARING THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HENCE...ZONAL FLOW INITIATES
ON TUESDAY INSTEAD OF MONDAY.

TO SUMMARIZE...MOISTURE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND THE PROMINENT EASTWARD PUSH OF THE DRYLINE COMMENCES.
HOWEVER...EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR
CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
ATTM...WITH HIGHEST BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS BEING SPATIALLY
DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. LOW TO HIGH END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS WILL ENSUE THIS WEEK...WITH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HONING IN ON THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEING THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DAYS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1...THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
STONEWALL AND KENT COUNTIES.  GIVEN WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
IN COMBINATION WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUEL...SUBSTANTIVE GRASSLAND FIRE
THREAT WILL EXIST AREAWIDE.  OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN QUITE
POOR WITH VALUES ONLY MAKING IT TO THE LOWER 20 PCT RANGE AS OF 1
AM.  WHILE WINDS TODAY MAY BE ON THE LOWER END OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA...RECENT FIRES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT VERY LITTLE IS
NEEDED TO INDUCE RAPID FIRE SPREAD. WINDS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 20 MPH RANGE AT THE 20 FOOT HEIGHT THROUGH WITH THE POOR
RECOVERIES...PROTRACTED PERIODS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN /
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING CREATING A WIND SHIFT HAZARD FOR ANY FIRE SUPPRESSION
EFFORTS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON
THU-SUN. SFC LEE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND HENCE PROMOTE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL DAYS BEING THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS UA
TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AIDS TO STRENGTHEN ABL WIND
SPEEDS. 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS DURING THE ANTICIPATED HIGH END FIRE
DANGER DAYS...ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH /EQUATING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/ WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEARING/EQUATING SINGLE DIGITS. DUE TO THE ABOVE CONDITIONS WITH THE
ADDITION OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND APPARENT EASILY INITIATED
WILDFIRES...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE CWA-WIDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ON THURSDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WITH WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 27 KTS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE
IF A WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT IS WARRANTED FOR THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING HOWEVER THE
DRYLINE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE AS IT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARM /MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
DESPITE THE PROPAGATION OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM AND HENCE ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. PROGGED
20-FOOT WINDS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAY ARE LESS THAN THE EXPECTED
HIGH END FIRE WEATHER DAYS...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE BREEZY /BETWEEN 20
TO 25 MPH/. THUS WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE LATER MODEL RUNS AS
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR POSSIBLY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR FRIDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK...DUE
TO THE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  49  81  43  80 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         86  50  83  46  83 /   0  10  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     88  54  84  47  81 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     90  55  86  48  84 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       90  56  86  51  86 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   90  54  86  50  84 /   0  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  56  87  50  83 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     90  58  88  53  90 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          94  61  88  54  89 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     95  61  89  56  90 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

26/29
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 5, 7:10 PM CDT, 8 hours 35 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
710 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011

TXZ021>044-061200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
710 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND
AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS BY THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. SIMILAR WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JORDAN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lubbock, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 6, 3:29 PM CDTFire Weather WatchLUBBailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cochran, Cottle and 18 more37 hr
Apr 6, 3:29 PM CDTFire Weather WatchLUBBailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cochran, Cottle and 18 more48 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Texas, 2011Every red flag warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.