Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS St. Louis, MO

June 10, 2011Lewis County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 10, 2011, 5:36 PM CDT for Lewis County, Missouri. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2011, 5:36 PM CDT (22:36 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2011, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Lewis County, MO

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 177 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 10, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 874 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

598 
WUUS53 KLSX 102236
SVRLSX
MOC111-102315-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0267.110610T2236Z-110610T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
536 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 531 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAYLAND...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANTON...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP 
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY 
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL 
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 9177 4026 9165 4025 9165 4025 9150
      4025 9149 4020 9150 4019 9151 4019 9179
      4026 9181 4026 9178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 266DEG 26KT 4025 9165
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

TRUETT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 10, 2:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 2:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/250 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011/

MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING. LARGE CU FIELD WAS PRESENT OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI THE PAST HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 457
IS...AND NEW STORMS ARE NOW SHOWING UP NEAR KVIH. SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A DECAYING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CU FIELD. LATEST SPC
MESOANAYLSIS IS SHOWING THAT THE CAP HAS BEEN BROKEN TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CINH. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO LIKELY INITIATE CLOSER TO THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THINK THAT
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR WITH SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS FRONT GETS PUSHED
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY SATURDAY WHERE
FRONT WILL LINGER THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN FOLLOWED
PREVIOUS THINKING OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHEN SURFACE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT. BOTH THE NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO MCS'S TO ROLL SEWD OVER THE AREA...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO MAINTAINED THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011/

THERE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO BLOSSOM OVER AREA IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
AIRMASS...AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REFLECT THIS WITH VCTS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT OOZES ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE
OCCURRANCE OF MORE FOCUSED CONVECTION WITH THE TEMPO GROUPS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...SPECIFICS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL JUST A FIRST GUESS AND WILL HAVE TO RELY ON RADAR TRENDS
TO FINE-TUNE THE DETAILS. ALSO EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
DRAPED OVER IA TO ADVECT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW KICKS EAST
AND NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCV HAS
KEPT EAST CENTRAL MO HIGH AND DRY SO FAR...BUT LOOKING FOR STORMS
WITH SCATTERED-TYPE COVERAGE TO DEVELOP BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS EVENING...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREA.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOWER CIGS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.  FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT STL AREA IN MVFR CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TRENDS TO SEE IF IFR WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME A THREAT.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 3:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
357 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ALL SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

BRITT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:01 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
501 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             WELLSVILLE              39.07N  91.57W
06/10/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JP

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:04 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
504 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             WELLSVILLE              39.07N  91.57W
06/10/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

DYE

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:07 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
507 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   38.63N  88.95W
06/10/2011  E0.88 INCH       MARION             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS ONGOING

&&

JP

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:08 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
508 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   38.63N  88.95W
06/10/2011  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:14 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
514 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             3 S HERMANN             38.66N  91.43W
06/10/2011  E2.75 INCH       GASCONADE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS ONGOING. RANGING FROM GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL
            SIZED.

&&

JP

Local storm report, Jun 10, 5:16 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
516 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             2 N WELLSVILLE          39.10N  91.57W
06/10/2011  E1.50 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG WINDS OF UNKNOWN SPEED.

&&

DYE

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 9:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Knox, Lewis	50 min
Jun 9, 10:28 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Knox	6 hr
Jun 9, 10:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	6 hr
Jun 9, 11:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	11 hr
Jun 9, 11:07 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	11 hr
Jun 9, 11:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Knox, Shelby	44 min
Jun 10, 11:38 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	13 days
Jun 10, 11:38 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	14 days
Jun 10, 11:38 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Ralls	14 days
Jun 10, 3:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway, Montgomery, Osage	41 min
Jun 10, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Callaway, Montgomery	52 min
Jun 10, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Callaway	50 min
Jun 10, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Gasconade, Montgomery, Warren	48 min
Jun 10, 4:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Knox	27 min
Jun 10, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Gasconade	28 min
Jun 10, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Montgomery, Pike, Ralls	39 min
Jun 10, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Montgomery, Warren	31 min
Jun 10, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Pike	48 min
Jun 10, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Warren	44 min
Jun 10, 5:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Lewis	41 min
Jun 10, 6:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Monroe	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.