Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS St. Louis, MO

963 
WWUS53 KLSX 221900
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

ILC061-149-221915-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-110522T1915Z/
PIKE IL-GREENE IL-
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 158 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BELLEVIEW...OR 13 MILES WEST OF WHITE HALL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HILLVIEW...MILTON...BEDFORD...MONTEZUMA AND PATTERSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 9057 3953 9057 3952 9037 3951 9040
      3950 9041 3948 9044 3940 9066 3940 9074
      3949 9079 3961 9060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 232DEG 21KT 3947 9063
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/445 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/

ONGOING SMALL MCS OVER W CNTRL IL IS STEADILY HEADING TO THE
E AND IS BEING HELPED ALONG WITH A LO LEVEL JET OF 50KTS AND AS
THIS VEERS THIS MORNING...THIS MAY ALLOW IT TO DEVELOP A BIT MORE
OF A SWD TAIL AS IT TRACKS THRU SWRN IL. EITHER WAY...LOOK FOR
RAIN TO EXIT BY MID MORNING. HEADING INTO LATER THIS MORNING...
APPROACH OF DRY LINE...OR A PRE-FRONTAL TROF BY THE TIME IT
REACHES US...MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA INTO NERN/CNTRL MO BY
MIDDAY. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREAS
N AND W OF STL METRO AS THIS TROF CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THRU
AND ENCOUNTERS A FULLY RECOVERED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE CONVECTION OF
LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DWPTS APPROACHING 70F AND
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. HI CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR APPROACHING
FAVORABLE VALUES SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVING A
DECENT CHANCE AT SEVERE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE STORMS PENETRATE FURTHER SEWD THRU THE FA. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD LAPSE BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY...WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...THEN BEING CONFINED TO THE FAR
SERN FA OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND W AT THE MOMENT WILL
PLAY SUCH A LARGE ROLE IN THE FCST FOR THE EARLY-MID PART OF THIS
WEEK AND WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH BEGINNING MONDAY AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF DECENT STRENGTH UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES THRU THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE FA
WITH A SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF WHAT
DOES DEVELOP AND ALG-S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STRETCH OF
WET WX COULD ALSO GET MANY AREA STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS BACK
ON THE RISE AGAIN.

DID NOT FULLY BUY THE MAV KNOCKING DOWN TEMPS FOR TODAY OVER MANY
LOCATIONS...AND SIDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF MID-UPR 80S FOR
MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL EDGE BACK TO AVERAGE ON MONDAY...AND
THEN BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY ON AS CLOUDS AND RAIN TAKE THEIR
TOLL.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/1140 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND START
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT IF STORMS TO THE WEST CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINES
BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO ATTM. HELD OFF ON
ADDING OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF PENDING STORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...NARROW BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE
WAS APPROACHING THE TERMINAL AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY 19Z.
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO BE FROM 23Z TO
03Z BUT SOME FINE TUNING WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AFTER STORMS
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IF STORMS TO
THE WEST CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINES BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO ATTM.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
912 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
912 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH THE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...GOLFBALL OR
LARGER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...POSSIBLY HEAVY...MAY CAUSE RISES ON
AREA STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS EARLY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

BRITT