River Flood Warning 163, NWS St. Louis, MO

560 
WGUS83 KLSX 150142
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
842 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN
ILLINOIS...


  KASKASKIA RIVER AT VANDALIA


.THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

ILC051-150212-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0163.000000T0000Z-110619T1335Z/
/VNDI2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
842 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE KASKASKIA RIVER AT VANDALIA.
* AT 8:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE NEAR 
  17.4 FEET THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     06/15  06/16  06/17  06/18  06/19

KASKASKIA RIVER
  VANDALIA        18.0   11.71      12.6   16.3   17.1   13.7   11.0

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
553 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/412 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE POPS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

LARGE AREA OF WAA TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SE IA AND SW IL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH EWD. AREA OF WEAK TSRA OVER WRN MO THIS
MORNING IS ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP SHUD DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON REMAINING DRY.

TSRA SHUD DEVELOP OVER NWRN MO SWRN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. TSRA SHUD SPREAD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE EWD AND SEWD LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
SW IL. EXPECT TSRA TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MUCH THE SAME AREA AS THIS MORNING. MDLS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AND ANY MESOSCALE FEATURE CAN SHIFT FOCUS
FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. STILL...HEAVIEST RA SHUD BE FURTHER N AND E
THAN THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE HEAVY RA EXPECTED AGAIN AND THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE EXTENDED THE FFA THRU 12Z WED FOR THE SAME AREA.
SOME OF THESE COUNTIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH AS
CONFIDENCE GROWS REGARDING LOCATION OF TSRA.

SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE CWA ON WED
WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E. WED NIGHT THRU MUCH OF
THURS NIGHT SHUD BE DRY AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. KEPT
POPS FOR THURS NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. WAA PRECIP
MAY SPREAD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE FRI.

FOR TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM...STRONG WAA TODAY WILL MAKE TEMPS
TODAY TRICKY. WRMFNT SHUD LIFT N THRU PORTIONS OF CNTL MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

TRENDED TWD THE WARMER MOS FOR TONIGHT AS CDFNT SHUD BE REACHING THE
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED. MOS AGAIN HAS A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMP POSSIBILITIES WITH SIMILAR MASS FIELDS IN MDLS. WITH FROPA
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WED...TRENDED TWD THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
WED INTO FRI.

FOR THE EXTD...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A FAST OUTLIER FOR APPROACHING
SYSTEM THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. GFS AGAIN SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. ECMWF/GEM ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. TSRA WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF CAP...QUESTION REMAINS WHERE THAT
WILL BE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE EXTD AS IS.
LOWERED POPS AND RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE FOR FRI. REMAINDER OF EXTD
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/545 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011/

ANOTHER ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WITH MCS
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF IOWA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR AREA
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST BY 18Z TODAY AS WARM FRONT TRIES ONCE AGAIN
TO PUSH NORTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...PROBABLY A SEVERE SQUALL LINE...
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND FINALLY WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 17Z. THEN ATMOSPHERE WILL TRY TO RECOVER AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE WEST
WITH COLD FROPA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION
     MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
423 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL POSE A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING
REPORTS...AS WELL AS ANY RAINFALLS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
740 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CANTON                  40.13N  91.52W
06/14/2011  M4.00 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
812 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT STERLING          39.98N  90.76W
06/14/2011  M2.75 INCH       BROWN              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL LAST 24 HOURS

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
838 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     HAIL             QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/14/2011  E0.25 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
918 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GLEN CARBON             38.76N  89.97W
06/14/2011  M1.75 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
927 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NW PERRY              39.84N  90.83W
06/14/2011  M3.81 INCH       BROWN              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
956 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BARTELSO                38.54N  89.47W
06/14/2011  M2.20 INCH       CLINTON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 3 AM. STILL RAINING AT THIS TIME.

&&

JP