River Flood Warning 109, NWS St. Louis, MO

131 
WGUS83 KLSX 161335
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...

 
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 

      SAVERTON LOCK AND DAM 22


.THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT REGARDING THE FLOODING EVENTS WHICH
AFFECTED THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT SAVERTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

ILC149-MOC173-161405-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-110517T0600Z/
/SVRM7.1.ER.110516T0120Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
835 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT SAVERTON LOCK AND DAM 22.
* AT 8:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR 15.6 FEET
  TUESDAY MORNING.

$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     05/17  05/18  05/19  05/20  05/21

MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
  SAVERTON LD22   16.0   15.83      15.6   15.4   15.2   15.0   14.8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
712 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/255 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011/

ANOMALOUS AND RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK...AS A PAIR OF LARGE AND WOUND UP UPPER LEVEL LO SYSTEMS
SET UP SHOP OVER THE ERN AND WRN CONUS.  THIS WILL BECOME FULLY
REALIZED BY TUESDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF THE ERN CONUS SYSTEM.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME MOVEMENT WILL BE ALLOWED PRIOR TO THE
FORMATION OF THE STAGNANT PATTERN ON TUESDAY...AS THREE DIFFERENT
COMPONENTS WILL FUJIWHARA AROUND EACH OTHER BEFORE FINALLY  MERGING
INTO THE SINGLE ERN CONUS SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE LAST
OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS TO FINALLY GET OUT OF HERE TONIGHT AND PUT
OUR REGION IN A RATHER GOOD POSITION FOR WHEN THE STAGNANT PATTERN
DOES TAKE HOLD...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WX. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...HOWEVER...WITH A VERY GRADUAL
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS TOWARDS AVERAGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL BE THE RATHER COOL NIGHTS THAT WE WILL BE
EXPERIENCING...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPR 30S
THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS IN VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE FA.  THESE NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH...IN FACT...TO THREATEN RECORD LOWS AT KSTL...
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KCOU.  SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.  THESE COOL NIGHTS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FROST
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN PROTECTED VALLEY AREAS. FOR NOW...THE
BEST NIGHT FOR THIS SHOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR ALL NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SFC
WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT ENOUGH. TONIGHT THERE ARE ISSUES
WITH SFC WNDS REMAINING TOO HI AND CLOUDS LINGERING TOO LONG.
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FROST...BUT WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH AIR HAS MODIFIED BY THEN.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...00Z ECMWF AND
00Z/06Z GFS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WHICH
STRONGLY FAVORED THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING FROM YESTERDAY AND HAS COME
AS NO SURPRISE WITH CLOSED PACIFIC UPPER LO SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE
WRN CONUS.  MASS FIELDS FROM FRIDAY ON IS RATHER LO CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER...AS MODELS WANT TO NOW ALLOW THE PSEUDO BLOCKING RIDGE TO
HOLD FIRM AND DEFLECT THE WRN UPPER LEVEL LO TO OUR N.  IT WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF A REAL RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LO SYSTEMS TO OUR E AND W...RATHER THAN
WHAT IT APPEARS TO BE NOW WHICH IS NOTHING MORE THAN A NO-MANS LAND
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HI TO THE N AND A MODEST RIDGE TO THE S
FLANKED BY TWO WOUND UP SYSTEMS TO THE E AND W.  BUT EVEN WITH THE
OTHER POSSIBLE SOLN OF THE WRN UPPER LEVEL LO BARRELING THRU NEXT
WEEKEND...TIMING OF RAIN CHCS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SAME...AND
THEREFORE HAVE HELD OFF ON RAIN CHCS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND IF THE UPPER LEVEL LO MOVES
THRU HERE RATHER THAN TO OUR N.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR RECOVERY
TO AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK AND REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THRU THE WEEKEND AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS INCREASE.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/628 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011/

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS SHOULD END BY
02Z AT KUIN AND 05Z AT KCOU/KSUS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR
RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT AT KUIN BUT WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT KCOU/KSUS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW CLRG BY
09Z...I THINK THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES KCOU/KSUS AND START TO FILL IN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ONGOING
RAINFALL. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
DIMINISHING BY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
AREA.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINAL SHOULD END BY O5Z. MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS CLRG BY 09Z BUT
THAT TIMING SEEMS FAR TOO QUICK GIVEN THAT THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WOULD PROMOTE LOWERING CLOUD BASES. I
THINK WE'LL SEE THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS APPROACH KSTL BUT SLOW
DOWN AND START TO FILL IN ON THE BACK SIDE BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING
WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING BY EVENING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO WRN MO.

KANOFSKY

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY-MID THIS WEEK...

                     MON  5/16  TUES 5/17  WED  5/18
SAINT LOUIS (KSTL)    39/1875    40/1973    39/2002
COLUMBIA    (KCOU)    33/1890    35/1895    35/2002

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

TES