River Flood Warning 106, NWS St. Louis, MO

062 
WGUS83 KLSX 132117
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
417 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE MARIES RIVER NEAR WESTPHALIA...


                  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


         THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS FLOOD EVENT.



&&

MOC151-132147-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0106.000000T0000Z-110514T1840Z/
/WPHM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
417 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MARIES RIVER NEAR WESTPHALIA.
* AT  4:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9.5 FEET.
  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL.
  

$$

&&
                   FLD   LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG     05/14  05/15  05/16  05/17  05/18

MARIES RIVER
  WESTPHALIA      10.0    8.66       6.5    3.7    2.9    2.6    2.4

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/429 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011/

REMNANTS OF THE MCS SHOULD BE PUSHING E-SE OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRI.
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN KS WILL MOVE SEWD TO S CNTRL MO BY 00Z SAT
WHILE CDFNT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM ERN WI SW THROUGH NERN KS MOVES
SEWD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA THIS MRNG
PREFER THE 4 KM NCEP WRF MODEL WHICH HAS MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH IT INITIALLY DEVELOPS MOST OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SERN MO EARLY THIS AFTN IT EVENTUALLY
GENERATES MORE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTN. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS HAVE
NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB ON THE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT FOR TGT IN
PLACING MOST OF THERE QPF FROM W CNTRL IL SW TO CNTRL MO...MAINLY
NW OF STL. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THIS LOCATION IS N-NW OF THE
UPPER AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WHICH WILL MOVE TO SRN IL WRN KY
BY 12Z SAT. A GRADUAL COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE MODELS
BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SFC CDFNT/850 MB TROF
WITH THE 850 MB 8 DEGREE C ISOTHERM ADVECTING EWD TO STL BY 12Z
SAT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT MAINLY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER EWD AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW CONTINUE MOVING EWD. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND N-NWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY ON SAT. MAY HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT NGT BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD THROUGH NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
MO ON SUN. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NRN AND ERN
PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND SUN NGT. IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL END BY MON...BUT A PROLONGED COOL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION...
/510 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011/

LARGE AREA OF IFR AND LIFR CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO EXTENDS TO
JUST SOUTH OF KCOU TAF SITE THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY REACH FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KCOU BEFORE BREAKING UP AFTER SUNRISE.
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST...SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO
BE OVER EASTERN MO...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP AT BOTH
KSTL AND KSUS...WITH SHRA AT BOTH KCOU AND KUIN. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ALLOW LOWER CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON INCREASING NW WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO COLD TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS
IFR CIGS TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE TO MIMIC
CURRENT CIGS OVER KANSAS JUST WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MORNING IFR AND LIFR CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MO HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED BETWEEN KJLN
AND KSGF. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KSTL BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP THIS
EARLY MORNING CLOUD FIELD. COLD MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...CREATING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO TSRA WITH THIS IN MIND FOR A 3 HOUR BLOCK OF TIME. WHILE ANY
TSRA THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...SHRA WILL
REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HAVE NOT GONE AS LOW AS MOS GUIDANCE ON CIGS
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER KANSAS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW
HAVE REMAINED IN THE MVFR RANGE.

BROWNING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
534 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141045-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
534 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE MIDWAY            38.97N  92.40W
05/12/2011  M4.00 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRD