Areal Flood Warning 59, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/321 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE THE MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MAINLY ELEVATED
STORMS CONTINUE BEHIND THE MCS OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI IN A LARGE
AREA OF MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-2000 J/KG ON NOSE OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
JET. THINK THAT ANY REMAINING SEVERE WEATHER BEHIND TO LOW WILL BE
ISOLATED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER. RUC IS SHOWING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
15Z...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND BACKED THEM OFF BY LATE MORNING. FLASH FLOOD
WISE...WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS MCS IS ACCELERATING
EASTWARD AND REMAINING HEAVIER CORES WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERRIDE LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. CAN NOT RULE THAT THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT ON RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS...WARM LAYER
SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 800-700MB LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
LIMIT COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING WRN CONUS
TROUGH. HAVE CHANCE POPS UP IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA TONIGHT
ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR UNDER THE STRONG CAP ON MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE A WEAKENING OF THE
CAP...SO HIGH CHANCE OF LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MO/IL.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/638 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011/

MCV APPEARS TO BE HEADING INTO S IL ATTM...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS
WAKE CAUSING PRECIP TO SHUT DOWN FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON 1137Z RADAR DID CARRY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIVER
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MID CLOUD DECK TO THIN
AND CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CU
FORMING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS LEFT
LOTS OF BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT MID LEVELS WARM QUITE A BIT AND THIS SHOULD CAP MUCH
OF THE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. IF WARM FRONT DOES FINALLY PUSH
NORTH TODAY TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BECOME REFOCUSED
FROM MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND HAVE
REINTRODUCED VCTS AT UIN LATE THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT COU AND STL
AREA TAFS DRY FOR NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH MID CLOUD DECK AND
UNRESTRICTED VSBYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE IL MCV SHOULD CAUSE
THESE CLOUDS TO THIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BIT OF CU
DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...HOWVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AMS WILL REMAIN CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
REMAIN N OF AREA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

TRUETT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUDRAIN MO-
     BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-
     GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
     MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
     STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BOND IL-
     CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
     MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
718 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
718 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HARDIN IS IN MAJOR FLOOD. PLEASE REFER TO
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HARDIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR FLOOD.
PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
816 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FARMINGTON              37.78N  90.43W
06/19/2011                   ST. FRANCOIS       MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED...12 TO 14 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER AND UP TO 40 FEET TALL...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            TOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PHILLIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
837 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             5 W NEW BLOOMFIELD      38.72N  92.18W
06/18/2011  E0.88 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   COCORAHS

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
905 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW MAEYSTOWN          38.21N  90.26W
06/19/2011                   MONROE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED. TIME ESTIMATED.

0200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW MAEYSTOWN          38.21N  90.26W
06/19/2011  E2.00 INCH       MONROE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
909 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W FESTUS              38.22N  90.44W
06/19/2011                   JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            18 TO 30 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWNED. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
915 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     FLOOD            GREENVILLE              38.89N  89.40W
06/19/2011                   BOND               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING IS CONTINUING ACROSS THE COUNTY. ILLINOIS
            ROUTES 140...143 AND 127 HAVE WATER OVER THEM IN SPOTS.

&&

BYRD