Areal Flood Advisory 9, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
656 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
/211 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

IT'S ABOUT TO GET BUSY AGAIN.

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INITIATE ON THE NOSE OF A STOUT LOW
LEVEL JET TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
AS BAND OF INTENSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...AND A FEW CELLS
HAVE ALREADY SPIKED SOME LITTLE HAIL CORES. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL BECOMING MORE
LIKELY. LATEST HRRR HINTS THAT THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY TRY TO
ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...PERHAPS BECOMING SURFACED BASED LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT JUMPS NORTH.

THEN THE QUESTION IS IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS FROM 00Z DEPICT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A POOL OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO OUR WEST THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR.
WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF STORM MODES AND THE FULL SPECTRUM OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
HAVE DOUBTS IF WE NEED IT TO EXTEND PAST 06Z TONIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING IT
OUT...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE CWA. HAVE STARTED TO TRIM POPS BACK FOR
SATURDAY...BUT DIDN'T WANT TO HACK THEM TO MUCH IF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR SOUTH. IF THE SOUTHERN TREND CONTINUES...THE
WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.

STILL LOOKS WET FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTH WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. MADE NO CHANGES PAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/643 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011/

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST EXITING THE TAF SITES AT
ISSUANCE HOWEVER A DEVELOPING MCS NEAR KANSAS CITY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL TURN SLY AS A SFC WMFNT LIFTS NWD THEN TURN WLY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST EXITING
KSTL AT TAF ISSUANCE. A DEVELOPING MCS NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS TO KSTL BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN SLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THEN TURN WLY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-
     OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST.
     LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BOND IL-CLINTON
     IL-FAYETTE IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
247 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
247 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS RIVER AND
STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
ST. LOUIS.

CVKING

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1138 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LITCHFIELD              39.18N  89.66W
04/22/2011  M1.42 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            1 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

JP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MEDORA                  39.18N  90.14W
04/22/2011  M1.20 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL SINCE 7AM

&&

JP