Small Craft Advisory 66, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2011

...NEW MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A CLEAR...SUNNY...AND WARMER DAY TODAY
AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM SLIGHTLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTH TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND WINDS
HAVE DIED DOWN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA HAS
MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE...A
SHORTWAVE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE
EXITING STORM SYSTEM BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 6 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE COAST AND
VALLEYS...WITH TEMPS WARMING AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE
LOWER ELEVATED MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 70S IN WARMEST LA/VTU VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER CUTOFF UPPER LOW (540DM) SETS UP JUST OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO
THE BAY AREA...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SLO COUNTY. MEANWHILE A A 595DM HIGH PERSISTS ACROSS TEXAS. THE
RIDGE WILL BULGE SLIGHTLY WEST INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LVLS
OVER THE REGION BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO HIGH TEMPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA ON TUE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OFF LA COUNTY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT TO THE
SOUTH WHILE THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO INCREASE BRINGING NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO ALL COAST AND
SOME COASTAL VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY S OF POINT CONCEPTION. THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL WITH THIS TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS NEXT
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE INCREASING
NORTHERLY GRADIENTS CAUSING SUNDOWNER WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT WIND PRONE SOUTH COAST
BETWEEN GAVIOTA AND GOLETA. EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
LA/VTU COUNTY COAST...BUT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH IN VENTURA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S...WHILE THE CENTRAL COAST REMAINS IN THE
MID 60S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FILL IN AND PUSH EAST.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON THU WITH TEMPS
REMAINING FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE GFS...ECMWF AND LATEST CANADIAN MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY AND MOVE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS JUST WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
DIFFICULT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALL THREE MODELS
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAY AREA...AS THE CUTOFF LOW STALLS
OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS SHOULD BRING DECENT
RAIN TO THE BAY AREA...HOWEVER THERE IS A SHARP AXIS WHERE THE
PRECIP WILL OCCUR...MAINLY N OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY. SLO COUNTY
COULD SEE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS BY SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY.
WOULD HAVE RATHER STAYED WITH SILENT POPS...BUT NEEDED TO COORDINATE
WITH THE MONTEREY NWS OFFICE TO THE NORTH WHO HAS BETTER CONFIDENCE
FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND. HAVE BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
ACROSS SLO COUNTY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ADJUST BASED ON
NEWER MODEL RUNS. ALSO...WITH HIGHER THICKNESS LVLS AND HEIGHTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CAL...MODEL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY BUMPS TEMPS EACH DAY
UPWARD FROM FRI-MON. DID NOT FEEL THAT WAS PRUDENT DUE TO
UNPREDICTABILITY OF LOW...SO LEFT TEMPS ALONE FROM EARLIER PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE CENTRAL COAST. NO WIND ISSUES.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL HAVE A DEPTH OF AROUND 1500 FEET.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...30/1800Z.
A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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