Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1010 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2011

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL THEN BRING A COOLING TREND WITH A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...

UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER THIS EVENING...AND IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM USHERED IN A COOLER AIR MASS AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT WEAKENS
AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEGIN TO RELAX...WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN THE LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...WHERE HIGH WIND
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH. OTHERWISE
WILL DOWNGRADE REMAINING HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO WIND ADVISORIES...INCLUDING
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
SOUTH COAST. REMAINING COASTAL AND VALLEY WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE I5 CORRIDOR. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS...LOOK FOR
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. MOST AREAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RESIDUAL
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SLO COUNTY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY...LEADING TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING...LOOK FOR A MORE TYPICAL SEA
BREEZE WIND REGIME IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF OREGON ON TUESDAY...BUT LOOK
FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND. THIS COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW
AND A RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN HANDLING A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF SOLUTIONS TEND
TO DAMPEN THE FEATURE...WHILE GFS SOLUTIONS HANG A CUTOFF TROUGH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. REGARDLESS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY BECOME A MAINSTAY FOR LATE WEEK AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. AS A RESULT...THE PACKAGE REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL INTO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS THAT AFFECTED THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. BUOY REPORTS
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS STILL SHOWING VERY STEEP AND CHOPPY WIND
WAVES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE INTO HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ACROSS WEST FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
WIND SWELLS AND ASSOCIATED SURF EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM HAD DEVELOPED AND SINCE DISSIPATED
IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OFF MARIE BYRD LAND IN ANTARCTICA LAST WEEK
TUESDAY. THE FETCH AREA WAS ORIENTED BETWEEN 180-200 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO THE VTU/LA COUNTIES. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN ARRIVING EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN BUILD TO LOW TO MODERATE
HEIGHTS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0510Z.
JUST SOME PATCHY STRATUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...AND SOME MVFR VSBYS ON
THE CENTRAL COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE
FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONT TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...GOMBERG
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-301300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
930 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...AND SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST...WITH LOCAL DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.
VERY STEEP AND CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURF ON WEST FACING BEACHES
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK ON ALL AREA BEACHES TONIGHT.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

SURF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA
BEACHES ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GOMBERG