Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER ROUND
OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE
A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY WITH H5
HEIGHTS AROUND 582 DM. NEAR THE SURFACE...A STRENGTHENING NORTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS.
AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY
AND LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AND BELOW THE SANTA
YNEZ MOUNTAINS. IN FACT...THE SBA-SMX GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO PEAK
AROUND -4.0 MB THIS EVENING. SO...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY WITH THE MORNING ZONES. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS...ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE
LOCALIZED SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW
THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. IN FACT
BY THURSDAY...LOCAL TEMP STUDY DATA INDICATES THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND COASTAL VALLEYS SHOULD EASILY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
EVEN SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. OVERALL...A
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE AREA.

AS FOR CLOUDS...THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL DISAPPEAR AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE
UP MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE
INVERSION MAY BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRATUS FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...FOR THE EXTENDED...THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME
GENERAL IDEA BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...THEN A TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS THE WEST
COAST ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER ON SUNDAY...NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THEN TRANSITION TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION ON MONDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH EVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME MARINE LAYER DEVELOPMENT.
AT THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. ECMWF DOES SPIT OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...BUT GFS IS ESSENTIALLY DRY. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WILL EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE AND H5 HEIGHTS BUILD. AT THIS TIME...WOULD
ANTICIPATE MONDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
251 PM PDT MON MAR 28 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-291300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
251 PM PDT MON MAR 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST...BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR...AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD