Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
235 AM PST TUE MAR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMALS THIS WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
ONE OF THE BETTER WIND EVENTS OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS IS WINDING
DOWN. COLD AIR AND LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE HELPED TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. QUITE A FEW MTN WAVES SET UP
ALSO ESP ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. BEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE
MTNS AND THE SANTA CLARITA VLY. THE WIND WARNING IN THE ANTELOPE VLY
HAS ENDED AS THE FOCUS OF THE WINDS HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST.
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH FOR THE LA
COAST BUT THE WINDS NOW ARE NORTH SQUIRTING THROUGH THE CANYONS
ABOVE MALIBU BEVERLY HILLS AND HOLLYWOOD. THE WINDS HAVE NOT MOVED
WEST ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND THE MDL HAVE TRENDED
AWAY FROM THE AGGRESSIVE SOLN THEY HAD LAST NIGHT FOR THAT AREA SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND SBA CITY DOES NOT PAN OUT. THE MDLS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SUPPORT FOR THE WINDS ENDING MID MORNING WHEN ALL THE WIND
PRODUCTS ARE SET TO EXPIRE. THE MTN WIND WARNING MAY BE REPLACED BY
AN ADVISORY BUT IT WOULD ONLY BE FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY CLOUDY FROM VARIOUS CLOUD DEBRIS LEFT
OVER FROM THE MTN WAVES BUT THEN WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY. LOOK FOR A
NICE WARM UP EVERYWHERE AS A 579 DM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

EVEN BETTER DAY ON TAP WEDNESDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH THE
RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SMATTERING OF 80 DEGREES READINGS LIKELY IN THE
VLYS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NOTHING SPECIAL 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE
FAVORED SPOTS.

THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF THURSDAY AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENDS AS WELL.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CREATE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 DEGREES BUT WILL
STILL BE COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORMS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CA INTO A
MORE CYCLONIC PATTER AS WELL AS CREATING A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOWERING HGTS A FEW DM. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT A MARINE LAYER WILL SPIN UP SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. MAX
TEMPS WILL COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LITTLE BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY AS A LITTLE RIDGE POPS UP IN BETWEEN TROFS ALTHOUGH SINCE THE
STORM TRACK IS MOVING SO QUICKLY WOULD NOT PUT MUCH FAITH IN EXACT
TIMING OF EACH TROF OR RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

07/1100Z.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAFS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING. LGT OCNL MOD TURBC IN AND AROUND MTNS THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. LGT OCNL MOD TURBC SFC-060
THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...ASR

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