Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
725 PM PST FRI FEB 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
STORM COMING IN A LITTLE MORE RAGGED THAN HOPED FOR. SO FAR SLO
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN. SBA COUNTY
IS THE BIG WINNER SO FAR WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE GROUND SO
FAR..MOST OF VENTURA COUNTY HAS RECEIVED ABOUT A HALF INCH SO FAR
WITH OVER INCH AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN COASTAL SLOPES...LA COUNTY IS
SORT OF A HODGE-PODGE OF RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND HALF HAS
FALLEN OVER THE SANTA MONICAS...THE SAN FERNANDO VLY HAS HAD ABOUT
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHILE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS HAVE HAD ABOUT A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH. THE BEST RAIN
OVERNIGHT WILL STILL BE ON THE COASTAL SLOPES WHERE THE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT WILL COME INTO PLAY.

QUITE THE BREEZY EVENING WITH A 3.8 MB GRADIENT FROM LAX TO SMX MANY
COASTAL AND VLY LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS AND SOME
MTN AREAS SEEING 60 MPH GUSTS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF WIND ALOFT WITH NEARBY 90 KT WINDS AT 500
MB. THIS UPPER LEVEL WIND IS SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT ALSO WHICH IS
HELPING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. (AND JUDGING FROM THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTS MAKING FOR QUITE THE BOUNCY FLYING NIGHT)

CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND
DECENT INSTABILITY. 00 NAM INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION FROM 06Z TO 12Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL FUNNEL CLOUDS.

ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATE AT OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE FLASH FLOODING IN AT AROUND THE BURN AREAS WHICH ARE COVERED
BY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

00Z NAM INDICATES GOOD RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN A LITTLE LULL
IN THE MORNING. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS INTERESTING. THE MAIN SFC
LOW DRIVES A LARGE VORT MAX THROUGH THE AREA INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH DECENT CAPE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO THE AREA ESP SBA COUNTY.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIP WILL START WINDING DOWN FOR GOOD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH JUST
SOME NORTH SLOPE LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, COOL
AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE NEXT UPPER LOW
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH, TAKING OUR PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. THE GFS
DOES SHOW ANOTHER TROF DIGGING SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK THAT MAY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA. SO PRECIP CHANCES
HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR MOST AREAS TUE/WED BUT PUT IN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0020Z...DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH GENERALLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAFS THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE AFFECT ON THE
AREA FROM A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING MVFR AND
POSSIBLY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AIRFIELDS AS IT PASSES THRU THE
REGION TONIGHT. IMPROVED CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING FOR KPRB...KSBP AND KSMX. ELSEWHERE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND
ISOLATED IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE
CIGS LIFT TO VFR EARLY SAT AND CONTINUE THRU SAT AFTERNOON. A GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL THIS EVENING MAINLY
AROUND KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB. STRONG AND GUSTY SE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELDS AS THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA TONIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN CURRENT TAF MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO VFR BY 13Z SAT
AND PERSIST THRU SAT EVENING. GUSTY SE TO S WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD TONIGHT AS WELL.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN CURRENT TAF MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES DURING
THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE TO VFR BY 13Z SAT AND PERSIST THRU
THE DAY. GUSTY SE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS EVENING
AS WELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD/ASR
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST FRI FEB 18 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-191400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PST FRI FEB 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

A POWERFUL STORM WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN...A CHANCE OF POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
TOPPLE TREES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN FUNNEL
CLOUDS. HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS
FLOWS IN AND AROUND THE RECENT BURN AREAS. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CREATE
DEADLY HAZARDS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5000 FEET.
THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO FACE BOTH GALE FORCE WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POWERFUL STORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN...A CHANCE OF POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS...VERY STRONG
WINDS...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA. TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TOPPLE TREES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN
FUNNEL CLOUDS. HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND AROUND THE RECENT BURN AREAS. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CREATE DEADLY HAZARDS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 5000
FEET. THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
TODAY. MARINERS WILL HAVE TO FACE BOTH GALE FORCE WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RORKE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
515 PM PST FRI FEB 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 W SAN LUIS OBISPO    35.27N 120.86W
02/18/2011  M59 MPH          SAN LUIS OBISPO    CA   UTILITY COMPANY

            10 METER WIND REPORT FROM DIABLO CANYON...35 MPH
            SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH.

&&

DANIELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
540 PM PST FRI FEB 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE POINT MUGU        34.08N 119.03W
02/18/2011  E72 MPH          VENTURA            CA   MESONET

            LAGUNA PEAK WIND SUSTAINED 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 72 MPH.

&&

DANIELSON