Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
340 PM PST SAT JAN 1 2011

UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD...BRINGING RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE LOS ANGELES AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS WELL AS
LOW ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...THE INITIAL FRONTAL BAND STARTING TO
ARRIVE ON THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND OFFERING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT IN HOWEVER. 12Z AND 18Z NAM, GFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE ECMWF ALL SHOW RAIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SLO COUNTY. MODEL PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS SHOWING 3+ INCHES BETWEEN 10 PM
AND 4 AM IN NRN SLO COUNTY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE MODELS AGREEING ON
THE POSITION OF THE LOW BEING ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF MONTEREY, THIS
PUTS THE CENTRAL COAST IN A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT AREA WHICH NOT ONLY
SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY RAINFALL RATES, BUT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THE
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE AS WELL. SO THE LATEST FORECAST WILL
INDICATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING THERE LATER TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SLO COUNTY COASTAL HILLS. PWATS NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AT AN INCH OR LESS, BUT THE
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS SHOULD ASSIST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE OVER
MONTEREY COUNTY WITH THE FRONTAL BAND MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP SHOULD REACH WESTERN LA COUNTY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD THROUGH THE COUNTY DURING THE DAY. AS THE
FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA, PRECIP MAY GET HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
OVER SRN SBA AND WESTERN VENTURA COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST GETS A LITTLE TRICKY. MODELS SHOW A DECENT NORTHEAST LOW
LVL FLOW SETTING UP SUNDAY ACROSS LA/VENTURA COUNTIES WHICH
TRADITIONALLY CHOPS PRECIP DOWN QUITE A BIT ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF
THE MTN PEAKS. HOWEVER, THIS NORTHEAST FLOW IS CONFINED TO A PRETTY
SHALLOW ZONE BELOW 900 MB, WITH THE WIND ABOVE VEERING QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SO THIS IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST INDEED, BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS EVEN
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SBA/VENTURA COUNTIES IN THE MORNING, THEN
SPREADING INTO LA COUNTY BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NOW CALL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHER END TOTALS FALLING IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH SUNDAY, GENERALLY 3000 TO
4000 FEET. WENT AHEAD AND CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE LA/VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. LEFT THE SBA MTNS AS A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS MOST AREAS ABOVE 4000 FEET SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES, THOUGH THE HIGHEST PEAKS THERE COULD SEE
UPWARDS OF 10-12 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THESE HIGHER
PRECIP AMOUNTS COME TO FRUITION, HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE VENTURA
AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND PASSES THROUGH LA
COUNTY, THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TRAPPED COLD AIR AND DECENT LOW
LVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SET UP A GOOD SNOW EVENT FOR THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN DOWN TO
THE VALLEY FLOOR BY MONDAY MORNING AND FOR THIS REASON A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA.

RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOME MUCH
LESS WIDESPREAD, HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
WOBBLE OVER OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY HARD TO RULE OUT SHOWERS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN LA COUNTY. WRAP AROUND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE AND ACCUMULATING LOW ELEVATION
SNOW IS POSSIBLE EVEN INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...LOOKS LIKE THE AREA SHOULD BE DRYING OUT BY
MID WEEK, THOUGH THE LINGERING UPPER LOW MEANS THAT THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT LEAST UNTIL ABOUT FRIDAY WHEN ALL MODELS
INDICATE THE TROF FINALLY EXITING THE AREA. COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2330Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAFS
AT KPRB...KSBP...AND KSMX. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD AT THESE AIRFIELDS TONIGHT THRU SUN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AIRFIELDS CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WHICH MAY BE DELAYED
SEVERAL HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM KOXR SOUTHWARD. FOR THE L.A. COUNTY
TAF SITES DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MAY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL SUN
MORNING. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE SPEED OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUN.

KLAX AND KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE CURRENT TAFS DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN WITH A COLD
FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT BUT THERE IS ALSO
THE 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE THESE CONDITIONS MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUN
MORNING OR EVEN EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. ONCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE
IN THEY SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
319 PM PST SAT JAN 1 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-021400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
319 PM PST SAT JAN 1 2011

...RAIN AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO SAN
LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING INTO
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES SUNDAY.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL HILLS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE ON THE CENTRAL COAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THROUGH LOS ANGELES COUNTY. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAJOR
TRAVEL ROUTES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THE SNOW...INCLUDING
INTERSTATE 5 OVER THE GRAPEVINE. OVERALL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS ON SNOW
AMOUNTS AND ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE SNOW LEVEL ACROSS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FEET...RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON THE VALLEY FLOOR WITH UP TO 6 INCHES
IN THE FOOTHILLS. HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH SOLEDAD CANYON WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY. IF TRAVELING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WOFFORD