High Wind Watch 5, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PST WED FEB 16 2011

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD AIR AND A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE NEXT AND STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...CURRENT SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING A GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS TO THIS INCLUDE AREAS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY...MOSTLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
IN FACT...SHOULD SEE GOOD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SLO COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
FEET...WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO THURSDAY. WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 9 PM...BUT COULD SEE SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS...INCLUDING INTERSTATE
5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE AND HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH SOLEDAD CANYON. ALSO...LOW SNOW
LEVELS COULD IMPACT THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WILL
ALSO LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR ANTELOPE VALLEY AT 9 PM.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND STRONG WINDS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO FIRST IMPACT SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN INITIAL BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD LATER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING EASTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS THE COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SMALL TORNADOS.

PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES WITH THIS STORM ARE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ON SOUTH
FACING SLOPES. DUE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...RAINFALL
RATES COULD LOCALLY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ACROSS SOUTH FACING SLOPES. AS A RESULT...THERE MAY
BE FLASH FLOOD AND DEBRIS FLOW CONCERNS IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN
AREAS...THAT MAY REQUIRE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INITIALLY KEEP SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4500
AND 5500 FEET ON FRIDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AS LOW AS 3000
FEET ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BEING A POWERFUL WINTER STORM FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 70 MPH DURING THE PEAK OF THE
EVENT. AS A RESULT...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE SNOW LEVELS LOWER...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5 NEAR
THE GRAPEVINE...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 14 THROUGH SOLEDAD
CANYONS...AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO
THE MOUNTAINS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...DRY BUT COOL WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING NORTH SLOPE SHOWERS SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD
SYSTEM COMING TUE/WED, THOUGH THE EC HAS SHIFTED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AS WELL AND CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THAT ONE EITHER. HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE IN 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUE/WED AND WILL SEE
HOW THIS SHAKES OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0550Z.
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY N OF PT CONCEPTION. FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APCH SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THU AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP...LOWERING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING BETWEEN 01Z
AND 05Z. GUSTY S WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES
AFTER 20Z THU.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z THU...AND A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRI.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z THU...AND A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT CIGS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z FRI.

&&

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...SETO/WOFFORD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1005 PM PST WED FEB 16 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-171400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
1005 PM PST WED FEB 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET.
HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT THE BEACHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND WEST FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA COUNTY.

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF
THE CENTRAL COAST AND WEST FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA COUNTY.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS AND ISOLATED
SMALL TORNADOS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH  WILL POTENTIALLY
CREATE WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS BOTH THE TEJON AND SOLEDAD PASSES.

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GOMBERG