Frost Advisory 5, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PDT FRI APR 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LATE SEASON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOW SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...BECOMING SEASONAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
THE DEEP 535DM UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER SLO CO CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
PLENTY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THANKS TO THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL...THOUGH MANY
AREAS ARE STILL BATTING ZERO. AS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT A STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND IS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS UP NEAR 4500 FEET. LEFT THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONE FOR NOW...AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
LOWER QUICKLY TO BELOW 3000 FT THIS EVENING...BUT ADVERTISED TOTALS
MAY BE OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY BELOW 4500 FEET. STILL EXPECTING SOME
SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
FLOOR. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL ALSO BRING SOME UNSEASONABLE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...AND INLAND AREAS THAT STAY FREE FROM SNOW WILL HAVE A
THREAT OF FROST. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SLO
INTERIOR VALLEYS...AS THEY WILL BE THE FIRST TO LOSE THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOIST WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO REFORM AND CREATE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS CONTINUING RIGHT ON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAVORED I-5 CORRIDOR AND SBA SOUTH COAST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...BUT UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY AS
THE COLD AIRMASS MOVES EAST WITH THE LOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO RISE
BACK UP ABOVE 4500 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE THE ROAD TO RECOVERY...WITH CLEARER
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK UP TO ALMOST NORMAL BY MONDAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRATUS AS THE INVERSION TAKES ITS
SWEET TIME TO RECOVER. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT...EXCEPT FOR BREEZY SUNDOWNERS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
TUE AND WED ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME FORM OF A TROUGH THAT SKIRTS CALIFORNIA...BUT THE
GFS AND ECMWF VARY IN SIGNIFICANCE. WENT WITH THE CALMER GFS AS ITS
ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIRLY STEADY SOLUTION...WITH NO REAL CHANCES OF
PRECIP. DID THROW IN SOME STRATUS FOR THE TUE AND WED PERIOD AS
THE INVERSION SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO SETTLE IN AND ONSHORE GRADS
STRENGTHEN...BUT IT IS A SHOT IN THE DARK THIS FAR OUT.

ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP
OVER NEVADA WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT THU AND FRI. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS ON THE FUZZY END OF THE OUR FORECAST WINDOW...OFFSHORE FLOW OF
SOME VARIETY AND AMPLE WARMING SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE IN LIGHT OF THE
MID WEEK PATTERN. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT LA COUNTY AFTER 09/18Z.
LIGHT/MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE
NORTH AFTER 09/12Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS AROUND 25KFT
WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 30KT THROUGH 09/00Z THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND
15KT THEREAFTER THROUGH 09/07Z. STABILITY WILL INCREASE AFTER
09/09Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AROUND 3.5KFT THIS MORNING AND WILL
DIFFER BY PLUS 2KFT AFTER 09/21Z.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN 09/00-09/05Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CIGS 035 BETWEEN 09/00-09/10Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
FROST ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...HOFFER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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