Frost Advisory 11, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PST TUE NOV 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...PEAKING IN STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY...PEAK IN STRENGTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. SAVE FOR A FEW CLOUDS AROUND PASO ROBLES THIS MORNING
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
TAP FOR THURSDAY AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN FRONT OF AN
ONCOMING STORM MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE SOME SANTA ANA WINDS BOTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE GRADIENT DRIVEN ONLY WITH NO UPPER
OR THERMAL SUPPORT. STILL THERE COULD BE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
ACROSS THE VENTURA AND L.A. VLYS AS WELL AS THE SANTA MONICA MTNS.
ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE A LITTLE TOUGHER DUE TO THE
HIGHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAYS
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A LITTLE CENTRAL COAST
COOLING. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE THE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. FREEZE AND FROST WARNINGS WORKING
OUT WELL THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS EVEN COOLER FOR THE WIND SHELTERED
AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ANTELOPE VLY AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR INTERIOR
SLO VLY AND THE CUYAMA VLY. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN POSTED
FOR THE SANTA YNEZ VLY AND THE OJAI VLY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE FRIDAY THRU
SUNDAY STORM. THE NAM IS COMING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
SPECTRAL MDLS. THERE IS ABOUT 8 HOURS OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE THREE SPECTRAL MDLS AS WELL. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ALL LONG RANGE MDLS ARE NOW
DOWNPLAYING THE SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT WAS SLATED FOR SUNDAY. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY FOR ACCURATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESP WITH THE NAM
COMING IN SO DIFFERENT THAN THE OTHER MDLS BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD
CHC THAT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. THERE WILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SOUTH FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS WILL KEEP THE
SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY AROUND 6000 FEET.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND BY MONDAY SKIES
SHOULD TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AND IT WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...

08/1125Z.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE PD...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO COUNTY THIS MORNING.

.KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z CAVU TAFS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FREEZE WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FROST ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...CS

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1003 PM PST MON NOV 7 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-081400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
1003 PM PST MON NOV 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SOME AREAS MAY SEE WIDESPREAD FROST OR HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS. TAKE TIME TO COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS...AND PLAN
FOR COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IF YOU HAPPEN TO WORK OUTSIDE
TONIGHT. BEACHGOERS WILL FACE HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS.

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...AND THE COLD AIR MASS COULD
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS MAY SEE WIDESPREAD FROST
OR HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS. TAKE TIME TO COVER SENSITIVE PLANTS...AND
PLAN FOR COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IF YOU HAPPEN TO WORK OUTSIDE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EVENT LATE THIS WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.

* FREEZE WARNING.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FREEZE WATCH...............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FROST ADVISORY.............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL