Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Los Angeles, CA

067 
WGUS76 KLOX 062145
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
245 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

CAC111-062330-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110706T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VENTURA CA-
245 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM PDT FOR
NORTHERN VENTURA COUNTY...

AT 235 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING AROUND LOCKWOOD VALLEY. RADAR 
ESTIMATED RAIN RATES HAVE INCREASED TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AND 
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR 
TWO. LOCKWOOD VALLEY ROAD AND MUTAU FLAT ROAD CONTINUES TO BE THE 
ROADWAYS MOST IMPACTED...BUT HIGHWAY 33 MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED IF THE 
STORMS EXPAND WESTWARD. IN ADDITION...SEYMOUR CREEK AND PIRU CREEK 
ARE LIKELY EXPERIENCING DANGEROUSLY STRONG RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED 
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 11937 3489 11928 3486 11927 3486 11924
      3482 11923 3482 11898 3479 11897 3480 11889
      3476 11887 3461 11885 3461 11940 3490 11941
      3490 11937

$$

KITTELL

299 
WGUS76 KLOX 062330
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
430 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

CAC111-062339-
/O.EXP.KLOX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110706T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VENTURA CA-
430 PM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM PDT FOR NORTHERN
VENTURA COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY HAVE DIMINISHED 
IN INTENSITY...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE. 

LAT...LON 3489 11937 3489 11928 3486 11927 3486 11924
      3482 11923 3482 11898 3479 11897 3480 11889
      3476 11887 3461 11885 3461 11940 3490 11941
      3490 11937

$$

DB

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1015 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RETURNING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS TO COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AND BRINGING COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY AS TUESDAY IN ALL
RESPECTS, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE DECAYING MCS OVER AZ LAST
NIGHT AND THAT MAY DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT BY AN HOUR OR SO BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO GET THINGS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY PWATS ARE SUFFICIENT AT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2
INCHES. VBG SOUNDING WAS WETTER THAN TUESDAY BUT STABILITY
PARAMETERS WERE STILL MARGINAL AT BEST SO CONFIDENCE DEFINITELY
HIGHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LA/VTU COUNTIES THAN FURTHER NORTH,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS STILL LINGERING ACROSS
SLO COUNTY THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS THERE IS
AMPLE MOISTURE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST, SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT AND THU...WITH
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CONTINUING TO SEND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WEST NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FCST AREA. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT/THU. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS
THE MTNS...IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF
SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH CONTD WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A THREAT ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS ON THU
SHOULD BE ABOUT THAT SAME AS THOSE REACHED TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
A BIT HIGHER IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW THU NIGHT AND FRI. WHILE THE MID
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TURN SWLY AS THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
THE MARINE LAYER MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE THU NIGHT/FRI...AND EXPECT
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO PUSH INTO CSTL SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL
PROBABLY BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON FRI AS
HGTS/THICKNESSES DROP AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...AS THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
STATES AND WEAKENS...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN PACIFIC
AND INTO THE W COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A BROAD TROUGH
LINGERING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KICK ANY MONSOONAL
MOISTURE E OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH A RETURN TO A MORE ROBUST
MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLDS AND FOG IN CSTL AND
PROBABLY SOME VALLEY AREAS FROM SAT THRU TUE. ADDITIONAL COOLING
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY BELOW
NORMAL...AT LEAST W OF THE MTNS...THEN MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES IN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1705Z EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO PUSH INTO
LOS ANGELES COUNTY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT'S
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AZ. BY 19-20Z...EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THERE COULD BE MODERATE TO
STRONG UDDF NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER 04Z.
AS FAR AS STRATUS IS CONCERNED...FEEL THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...WOULD SAY THERE IS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST...WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY AT
KSMX.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 18Z TAF. MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH BRIEF CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL...BUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 18Z TAF. MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN
FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH BRIEF CIGS LIKELY BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL...BUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD/BRUNO
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-071300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND IN THE CUYAMA VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND CUYAMA VALLEYS...AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DB