Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Chicago, IL

317 
WWUS53 KLOT 042148
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
448 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

ILC075-091-INC007-073-089-111-127-042245-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110604T2245Z/
KANKAKEE IL-IROQUOIS IL-PORTER IN-NEWTON IN-JASPER IN-BENTON IN-
LAKE IN-
448 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LAKE...BENTON...JASPER...NEWTON...SOUTHERN PORTER...NORTHEASTERN
IROQUOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...645 PM
EDT...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 90 MPH. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRILLVILLE 
TO HEBRON TO LAKE VILLAGE TO AROMA PARK MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BOONE GROVE AND FAIR OAKS AROUND 455 PM CDT.
  KOUTS...MALDEN...WATSEKA AND ENOS AROUND 500 PM CDT.
  DUNNS BRIDGE...GIFFORD...SURREY AND MOROCCO AROUND 505 PM CDT.
  SHELDON AND BEAVER CITY AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  STOCKLAND...RAUB AND KENTLAND AROUND 515 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
PAPINEAU...MARTINTON...BEAVERVILLE...WHEATFIELD...DONOVAN...
IROQUOIS...MOUNT AYR AND EARL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AA EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS 
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND 
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL CAPABLE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO YOUR 
TORNADO SHELTER. 

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709 4047 8710
      4047 8740 4059 8764 4102 8796 4119 8801
      4107 8770 4117 8755 4133 8725 4162 8693
      4091 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 307DEG 41KT 4141 8721 4126 8722
          4113 8739 4109 8770
WIND...HAIL 100MPH 2.50IN

$$

IZZI

792 
WWUS53 KLOT 042205
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
505 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

ILC075-091-INC007-073-089-111-127-042245-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110604T2245Z/
KANKAKEE IL-IROQUOIS IL-PORTER IN-NEWTON IN-JASPER IN-BENTON IN-
LAKE IN-
505 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LAKE...BENTON...JASPER...NEWTON...SOUTHERN PORTER...NORTHEASTERN
IROQUOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT/645 PM
EDT/...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WANATAH TO
DUNNS BRIDGE TO GIFFORD TO BEAVER CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STOCKLAND...GIFFORD...FORESMAN AND KENTLAND AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  FREELAND PARK...MOODY...PLEASANT RIDGE AND PERCY JUNCTION AROUND
  515 PM CDT.
  DUNNINGTON...HANGING GROVE...MCCOYSBURG AND WADENA AROUND 620 PM
  EDT.
  TALBOT...BARCE AND FOWLER AROUND 625 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
EARL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709 4047 8710
      4047 8740 4059 8764 4102 8796 4107 8770
      4117 8755 4133 8725 4162 8693 4091 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 307DEG 41KT 4148 8689 4122 8694
          4109 8711 4085 8744
WIND...HAIL 80MPH 1.50IN

$$

BIRK

447 
WWUS53 KLOT 042220
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
520 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

ILC075-091-INC007-073-089-111-127-042245-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110604T2245Z/
KANKAKEE IL-IROQUOIS IL-PORTER IN-NEWTON IN-JASPER IN-BENTON IN-
LAKE IN-
520 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
LAKE...BENTON...JASPER...NEWTON...SOUTHERN PORTER...NORTHEASTERN
IROQUOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT/645 PM
EDT/...

AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WANATAH TO MEDARYVILLE TO
MCCOYSBURG TO PERCY JUNCTION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GOODLAND AROUND 525 PM CDT.
  TALBOT...BARCE...FOWLER AND BOSWELL AROUND 630 PM EDT.
  ATKINSON AROUND 635 PM EDT.
  TEMPLETON AND OXFORD AROUND 640 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709 4047 8710
      4047 8740 4059 8764 4102 8796 4107 8770
      4117 8755 4133 8725 4162 8693 4091 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 307DEG 41KT 4139 8682 4111 8682
          4091 8699 4080 8733
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.25IN

$$

BIRK

776 
WWUS53 KLOT 042232
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
532 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

INC089-127-042242-
/O.CAN.KLOT.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110604T2245Z/
PORTER IN-LAKE IN-
532 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE AND SOUTHERN
PORTER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4091 8693 4091 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709
      4047 8710 4047 8740 4059 8764 4102 8796
      4107 8770 4117 8755 4116 8739 4120 8731
      4121 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 299DEG 30KT 4136 8674 4107 8679
          4087 8696 4077 8731

$$

ILC075-091-INC007-073-111-042245-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110604T2245Z/
KANKAKEE IL-IROQUOIS IL-NEWTON IN-JASPER IN-BENTON IN-
532 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BENTON...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHEASTERN IROQUOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT/645 PM EDT/...

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WANATAH TO
MEDARYVILLE TO MCCOYSBURG TO PERKINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BARCE...FOWLER...BOSWELL AND LOCHIEL AROUND 640 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8693 4091 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709
      4047 8710 4047 8740 4059 8764 4102 8796
      4107 8770 4117 8755 4116 8739 4120 8731
      4121 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 299DEG 30KT 4136 8674 4107 8679
          4087 8696 4077 8731
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.25IN

$$

BIRK

704 
WWUS53 KLOT 042246
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

ILC075-091-INC007-073-111-042254-
/O.EXP.KLOT.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-110604T2245Z/
KANKAKEE IL-IROQUOIS IL-NEWTON IN-JASPER IN-BENTON IN-
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANKAKEE HAS 
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...JASPER...NEWTON...
NORTHEASTERN IROQUOIS...BENTON COUNTIES IS BEING REISSUED...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4091 8693 4091 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709
      4047 8710 4047 8740 4059 8764 4102 8796
      4107 8770 4117 8755 4116 8739 4120 8731
      4121 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 299DEG 30KT 4131 8662 4102 8667
          4082 8685 4072 8720

$$

BIRK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
427 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
425 PM CDT

CURRENTLY MONITORING SOUTH EASTERN WILL COUNTY AND NORTHERN
KANKAKEE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT 15 TO 30 MINUTES ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE LAKE BOUNDARY AND THE THUNDERSTORMS WORKING
EAST. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE POTENTIAL TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE
ENHANCED. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT GENERALLY PRIMED FOR
TORNADOGENESIS...THIS INTERSECTION WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MESOVORTEX GENERATION.

SHEA

238 PM CDT

BAND OF WEAK...LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN IOWA EAST-NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A RECENT
ACARS SOUNDING FROM ORD SHOWS THAT THE CAP/INVERSION IS WEAKENING
AND LIKELY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS WOULD
ALSO LIKELY EXPLAIN THE RECENT UPTICK IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. AS THE CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO REGION OF WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WOULD
ANTICIPATE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION OF THESE STORMS...LIKELY WITHIN
THE HOUR. STILL ANTICIPATE MAINLY A MARGINAL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL
MICROBURST TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...WITH FLASH FLOODING
BEING A POTENTIALLY LARGER HAZARD. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
CHARGE INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IS COOLER/LESS UNSTABLE...ANY WELL DEVELOPED
SEVERE STORMS THAT CROSS INTO THE COOL AIR COULD STILL POSE A SEVERE
THREAT FOR SOME LENGTH OF TIME BEFORE WEAKENING.

IZZI

1252 PM CDT...
SHALLOW CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS HAS CHOKED ON THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AS THEY MOVED EAST. A COUPLE OF RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS
FROM ORD SHOW A VERY FORMIDABLE CAP PRESENT...MUCH STRONGER THAN
WHAT HAD BEEN FORECAST BY MOST MODELS. IN FACT...PLUGGING IN
CURRENT T/TD AT ORD INTO ONE OF THESE SOUNDINGS YIELDS SBCINH
AROUND 100 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO NOT ONLY
PREVENT CONVECTION FROM FIRING ALONG THIS QUICKLY ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO KEEP A LID ON ANY CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT LEAST.

RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A RECENT DEEPENING OF CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA...WHICH IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF A WEAKER
CAP IN PLACE THERE AS HEIGHT FALLS AND A GLANCING BLOW OF UVV'S FROM
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH LIKELY HAVE ERODED THE CAP
SOMEWHAT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NOW THINKING THAT THE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN IOWA HAS
A BETTER CHANCE OF BECOMING THE MORE ROBUST AND SUSTAINABLE
CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT FOR US THIS AFTERNOON. THE ORIENTATION OF
THIS CONVECTION IS EVEN MORE EAST-WEST THAN WITH THE INITIAL OUTFLOW
SURGE AND AGAIN COULD POSE A VERY REAL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

IZZI

1145 AM CDT...
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO COOK OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH FULL
SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MODIFYING MORNING SOUNDINGS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SPC MESOANALYSIS BOTH SUGGEST ATMOSPHERE IS
GROWING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION QUICKLY
DECREASING.

ONE ROGUE LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
IL/WI BORDER WITH HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
CELL. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD CERTAINLY SEEM TO BE A PRIME
CANDIDATE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS
REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS REMOVED.

STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REDUCING DEEP LATER SHEAR
VALUES WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR IN THE POST FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT. EVEN STILL...30-40KT OF FLOW IN THE 6KM LAYER SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN 20-30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTER.

DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES...MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY BEFORE CONVECTION
MORPHS INTO LINE/CLUSTER. STRONG INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT OF WET-MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE. THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE COULD TEND TO INCREASE OVER OUR SE
CWA AS CONVECTION WILL HAVE MORE TIME/OPPORTUNITY TO HAVE
DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION BY THAT POINT.

PROBABLY ONE OF THE BIGGER THREATS THIS AFTERNOON COULD EVOLVE INTO
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY COULD
RESULT IN SOME EXTREME RAINFALL RATES...POSSIBLY OVER TWO INCHES
PER HOUR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT IS BECOMING ORIENTED MORE EAST-
WEST OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NW IL WHICH IS MORE ALIGNED WITH
THE MEAN FLOW AND ANTICIPATED STORM MOTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY TRAINING CELLS...WHICH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
SUCH HIGH PRECIP RATES COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. DID
CONSIDER A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT DECIDED TO JUST HIT
THE POTENTIAL HARD IN HWO SINCE IT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
TURN INTO ANYTHING VERY WIDESPREAD OF MAJOR.

IZZI

&&

.DISCUSSION...
330 PM CDT

WITH THE ACTIVITY FLARING UP ACROSS THE REGION...WILL KEEP THE
DISCUSSION SHORT THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOCUSED ON THE TIMEFRAME
BEYOND THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE PATTERN WILL STAY SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE AREA...STALLS OUT
TO THE SOUTH. THIS AREA WILL FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR AND OUTSIDE OF THE CHICAGO AND
ROCKFORD METROS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF A
REPRIEVE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND SIGNIFICANTLY LESS HUMID.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT WEST AND ACROSS THE PLAINS...ORIENTING THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME IN WAVES THAT WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME IN A WEAK
WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO RIDE ACROSS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONGER
WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIFT A SURFACE LOW THROUGH THAT AREA.
EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THAT WAS THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED SOUTH TODAY
AND STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BRING OUR AREA BACK
TO THE WARM SECTOR AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN JUMP UP INTO TO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...ALL OF THE WAY TO THE LAKE.

A FEW OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO KICK OUT SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE DOES LOOK LIKE
INSTABILITY SHOULD JUMP THAT AFTERNOON BUT THINK WE WILL BE WELL
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND LIKELY CAPPED. NOT SEEING MUCH OF WHAT
COULD BE ABLE TO LIFT THAT FEATURE AND WILL KEEP THE WORDING DRY
THROUGH THAT TIME. SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY...EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DRAPE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY. SHEA

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 21Z...

* THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST IL ENDING BY 01Z.

* NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND.

PAW

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS TSRA TIMING. A FEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP
OVER NORTHERN IL DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO BUT HAVE FAILED TO
DEVELOP FURTHER. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA IN THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR. MAY HAVE TO
WAIT FOR CELLS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IA TO TRIGGER. IN THE
MEANTIME LAKE BREEZE IS STARTING TO MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE WINDS AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON AND MAY SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

PAW

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 21Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST.

PAW

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
253 PM CDT

APART FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER JAMES
BAY HAS DRAGGED A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE FRONT SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE AS OF MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES AS A WARM FRONT.

LENNING

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
052000-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011 /346 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE:

  * DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
  * HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
  * HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  * THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
    COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
    AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF
    THE KANKAKEE RIVER.

  DISCUSSION:

   * A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
     THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
     EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
     THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
     INTENSITY. WHILE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...THE
     MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND ALLOW
     FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
     DAMAGING WINDS. THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO ALLOW
     THE STORMS TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH COULD
     RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE AND ILLINOIS RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN
FLOOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-052000-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-052000-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34
KNOTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
428 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND GST     FRANKFORT               41.50N 87.84W
06/04/2011  E50 MPH          WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            US 30 AND US 45

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
429 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     FLOOD            TINLEY PARK             41.57N 87.80W
06/04/2011                   COOK               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            US 30 AND HARLEM. STANDING WATER ON EAST BOUND LANES OF
            US 30.

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
430 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             TINLEY PARK             41.57N 87.80W
06/04/2011  M1.00 INCH       COOK               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            US 30 AND HARLEM

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
431 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             MANHATTAN               41.43N 87.99W
06/04/2011  M1.25 INCH       WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            RT 52 AND WHITE FEATHER DRIVE

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
432 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             PLAINFIELD              41.62N 88.20W
06/04/2011  M0.50 INCH       WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RT 30 AND 119TH

&&

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
435 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             MONEE                   41.42N 87.75W
06/04/2011  M0.88 INCH       WILL               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            RIDGELAND AND BRUNS

&&

WDM