River Flood Warning 85, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
706 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
325 AM CDT

ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST SITUATION TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE
FORECAST ISSUES.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH REPORTS OF
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH OCCASIONAL EVEN HIGHER
RATES.  THESE TYPES OF RAINFALL RATES HAVE PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
SAG SOUTH OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER.  FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.  WITH THE
CONVECTION LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
VERY HOT AND HUMID.  THUS WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AS LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF I-80 WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES...WITH
VALUES APPROACHING 115F OVER SRN FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES.  THE
HEAT HEADLINE SITUATION FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IS A
LITTLE LESS CLEAR.  GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES...MODEL FORECAST
DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW.  SO...FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING
FOLLOWING THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND BACK TO 91-92F OVER THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  WITH
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY ARND
NOON...EXPECT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD COME CLOSE TO 105F OVER
THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO AREA.
THUS...HAVE RE-INTRODUCED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-39 CORRIDOR.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WWD INTO THE SOUTH HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA...THE LOCAL AREA WITH
REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN A PRIME
LOCATION FOR ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THERE WILL BE
CHANCES FOR TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DUE TO THE
HOT/HUMID/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE
FOR ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL RECEIVED EARLY THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT.  FOR TOMORROW...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL STILL BE A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF THE
KANKAKEE/ILLINOIS RIVERS.  WILL MAINTAIN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
IN THIS AREA FOR SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO THE NWRN LOCATIONS.  THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT
IT COULD REACH THE RFD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HEAT RELATED HEADLINES FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...A
CONTINENTAL/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  THIS WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 80S LIKELY.  ALSO...THE AIRMASS WILL ME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE INCREASING IN
AMPLITUDE.  THIS WILL SIGNAL A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE
BACK INTO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND THE LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT BY MIDWEEK...UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST.  THIS SHOULD
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* CLUSTER OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA APPROACHING AIRFIELDS BY 13Z.
* SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KT...IN AND AROUND TSRA VARIABLE WINDS
  WITH BRIEF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT.
* HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES COULD LIMIT VSBYS.

BEACHLER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT ORD/MDW AS SHRA WITH EMBEDDED
TSRA AROUND 13-14Z. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
10KT OR LESS...HOWEVER IN AND AROUND TSRA WINDS WILL BECOME
AGITATED WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KT. GUIDANCE HAS
NOT HANDLED CONVECTION WELL...THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TAF FORECAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED AFTER A LULL
LATE THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING WILL BE SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY
CONVECTION...THEN IT APPEARS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY OCCUR. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE CONDS TO VFR.

BEACHLER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIR/SPEED.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS IN AND AROUND TSRA.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OF TSRA AND COVERAGE.

BEACHLER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SUNDAY NIGHT...CHC TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
FRIDAY...VFR. CHC TSRA.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
310 AM CDT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION...STRETCHING FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN QUEBEC WEST
THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. A SECOND AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...AND EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTH. SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE REGION SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL TURN
NORTH FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 PM
     SUNDAY.

     HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022...10 AM SATURDAY TO
     9 PM SUNDAY.

     HEAT ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012...10 AM
     SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...10 AM SATURDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.

LM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
445 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
240945-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
445 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 /545 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:

   HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING.
   FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

   OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
   ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE HEAVIEST STORMS...PRODUCING
   VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
   INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

   THE DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
   SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

  DISCUSSION:

   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
   WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES ALREADY OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS
   OVER THE DES PLAINES RIVER BASIN. LOCATIONS ON THE DES PLAINES
   RIVER HAVE RAPIDLY REACHED FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
   RISE THIS MORNING.

   WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. THE MOST LIKELY
   LOCATION FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
   INTERSTATE 88.

   MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
   THESE STORMS WILL FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
   HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. THIS MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLASH
   FLOODING TONIGHT.

   WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER TODAY...LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
   INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
   WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ALREADY IN PLACE...HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
   REACH 110 TO 115 DEGREES.

   LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR AND JUST NORTH OF
   THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...AWAY FROM THE CHICAGO METRO
   AREA...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOW 90S. HEAT
   INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES THERE. THE HEAT
   INDEX OVER THE CHICAGO METRO AREA SHOULD BE BETWEEN 95 AND 100
   DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110
TO 115 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FOR FLASH FLOODING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-240945-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
445 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS CAUSING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-240945-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
445 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS CAUSING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

KREIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
935 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MCHENRY                 42.34N 88.29W
07/23/2011  M2.51 INCH       MCHENRY            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN APPROXIMATELY 30 MINUTES. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

RC