River Flood Warning 16, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
653 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...
403 PM CDT

NEAR TERM CONCERNS AS OUTLINED IN MESO DISCUSSION APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS BUT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS LIFT OUT OF
IOWA AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. SEE TEXT OF MESO DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
OUT AND REMAINS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN AND EVEN SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT COMES THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEK...HIGHS
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S TO LOWER
40S. THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MORE QUESTIONS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IN
AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE
AREA WHERE A NOSE OF WARMER AIR WILL BE OVERRUNNING A COLD POOL OF
AIR AT THE SURFACE. DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS THE
PERIOD OF CONCERN DRAWS NEARER. AT THIS TIME THE MAX TEMPERATURE
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT HOVERS NEAR THE FREEZING LINE...SO SLEET AND
SNOW WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TYPES IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIP IS MIXED.

LENNING

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
405 PM CDT

WITH TODAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THREE DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO AND A HALF INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE GREATEST TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE
GROUND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO DRY OUT BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...MANY AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE RISES THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEYOND TODAY ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT SHOULD THEY
COME TO FRUITION...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE UPPER ILLINOIS...DES
PLAINES...FOX..PECATONICA...ROCK...AND KANKAKEE RIVER BASINS MAY
REACH FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.

RC/LENNING

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

GENERALLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IIN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERAGE
IN CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DISRUPT TRAFFIC FLOW
INTO/OUT OF ORD/MDW THIS EVENIING...WITH A TSRA LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS AT LEAST PERIODICALLY THROUGH LATE EVENING. SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND SHIFT TO WNW. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH SHOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OPS SO
WILL REFINE THAT PORTION OF THE TAF WITH LATER AMENDMENTS. FINALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY FLOP AROUND TO NE LATE IN THE DAY...LIKELY
AIDED BY A PUSH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING/COVERAGE
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LATE TONIGHT
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION MONDAY

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

TUESDAY...OCNL SHRA/TSRA. IFR LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/SHSN.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY.

FRIDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS. CHC -RA/SN.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
418 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
THAT WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...ALLOWING WEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. A MUCH LARGER...POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS THEN FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRISK NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES FOR MIDWEEK AS IT PUSHES EAST AND DEEP LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 3 AM MONDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
547 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
212300-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
547 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 /647 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD PRODUCE:
  PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL...
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
  ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88 THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
  LEVELS THIS EVENING...THOUGH THE STRONGER ONES COULD PRODUCE
  HAIL OF NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE AND/OR GUST TO 60 MPH.

  A WARM FRONT RUNS FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN
  ILLINOIS WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWEST
  INTO KANSAS. LIFTING OF MILD MOIST AIR OVER THIS FRONT WILL
  RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS THE
  COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
  CONVERGENCE OF WARM MOIST AIR AND LIFTING BY THE COLD FRONT WILL
  SPAWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA.

  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FELL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
  FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
  POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
  RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RISES ON
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TO REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL REPORTS.

&&

COMPLETE DETAILED FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS
CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-212300-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
547 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED ON THE
ILLINOIS WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND ON BOTH THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE DETAILED FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS
CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-212300-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
547 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

&&

COMPLETE DETAILED FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS
CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
633 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             LAKEMOOR                42.34N 88.20W
03/20/2011  M0.25 INCH       MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
646 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MUNDELEIN               42.27N 88.00W
03/20/2011  M0.50 INCH       LAKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             WOODSTOCK               42.31N 88.44W
03/20/2011  E0.25 INCH       MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

IZZI