Gale Warning 95, NWS Chicago, IL

669 
WHUS73 KLOT 110928
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
328 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-111730-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0095.111211T1200Z-111212T0300Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
328 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CST THIS EVENING. 

* EXPECT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS 
  FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* DURING THE GALE WARNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE UP TO 35 
  KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  UP TO 14 FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 19 FT.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ740>745-111730-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
328 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 9 PM CST 
  THIS EVENING.

* DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 
  UP TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES 
  WILL BE UP TO 4 FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 6 FT.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BEACHLER

056 
WHUS73 KLOT 111601
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1001 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-120015-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
1001 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

* EXPECT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS 
  UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* DURING THE GALE WARNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE UP TO 40 
  KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  UP TO 14 FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 21 FT.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ740>745-120015-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
1001 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 9 PM CST 
  THIS EVENING.

* DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE UP
  TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL
  BE UP TO 4 FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 6 FT.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RODRIGUEZ

582 
WHUS73 KLOT 112206
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
406 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-120300-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
406 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

* EXPECT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS OR FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS 
  UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* DURING THE GALE WARNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE UP TO 35
  KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE UP
  TO 14 FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 21 FT.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ740>745-120300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
406 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 9 PM CST 
  THIS EVENING.

* DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE UP
  TO 25 KT FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE
  UP TO 4 FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 6 FT.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JEE

549 
WHUS73 KLOT 120303
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
903 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-120415-
/O.EXP.KLOT.GL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
903 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

LMZ740>745-120415-
/O.EXP.KLOT.SC.Y.0111.000000T0000Z-111212T0300Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
903 PM CST SUN DEC 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
631 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
626 PM CST

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. BAND OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
TRANSVERSING THROUGH THE AREA. REFINED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE
ABRUPT ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF OVERCAST SKIES. THIS BAND OF
CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT BY LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...HOWEVER HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT IS HARD TO DETERMINE
PRESENTLY. DECIDED TO TWEAK TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

JEE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
331 PM CST

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST ARE ALMOST ALL ATTRIBUTED
TO THE RETURN OF WARM AND MOIST AIR...AT LEAST ALOFT...DURING
MIDWEEK. THE CHALLENGES WERE ASSESSING THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
TIMING...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH THAT WILL HINDER TEMPERATURES.

REST OF THE WEEKEND...THE DRY CONTINENTAL HIGH THAT BROUGHT
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN SEVERAL COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING IS EVOLVING
SOUTHEAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS ALREADY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS HAS SOMEWHAT FAIRLY FOCUSED ASCENT ON THE 280-285K LAYER AND
IS PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES. THIS CORRIDOR HAS BEEN EVIDENT WITH QUICK-
PROGRESSING BROKEN CLOUD COVER. THE 11.18 NAM AND LOCAL WRF
SOLUTIONS BOTH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AREA AND EVOLVE IT
QUICKLY EAST NORTHEAST...LIKELY THINNING SOME AS IT PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE DROP SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER.
BEHIND THIS...CLEARING IS EXPECTED WHICH IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL
LAST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
TEN DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO MORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN THE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SUCH
AS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SUNSHINE...SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE BACK AT TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY ENVELOPING THE
REGION. ONE CONCERN ALREADY SEEN ON SATELLITE IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRYING TO EXPAND NORTHEAST. LOW-
LEVEL PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS
RH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS FROM THESE SOLUTIONS...BRING THE
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS NEAR...IF NOT INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY CENTERED FROM IA INTO WI
WILL ALSO LIKELY ENHANCE THE CLOUD POSSIBILITY. HAVE TRENDED
CLOUDIER EARLIER WITHIN THE FORECAST. WHILE THE FOCUS FROM THIS
WAVE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY...THE REGION MAY GET GRAZED WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AS LOW CLOUDS EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...DRIZZLE MAY BECOME MORE FAVORED WITHIN THE SATURATED
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT PATTERN. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW FREEZING...IT WOULD LOOK LIKE A SMALL
WINDOW LATE AT NIGHT...AND OFTEN IN SUCH CLOUD COVER WAA PATTERNS
THE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY. SO WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP DRIZZLE MENTION AS LIQUID. A VERY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AT NORMAL AND LOWS WELL ABOVE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A LARGER
SPREAD DURING THIS PERIOD...NAMELY IN SHARP DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.
HAVE SHIFTED A BLEND OF THE GOING FORECAST AND MODEL BLEND
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...WHICH REALLY EQUATED TO MINIMAL
CHANGES AS THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO ENCOMPASS THE FAVORED
SCENARIOS WELL. THE DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY IS
FORECAST BY LONG RANGE MODELS TO PROGRESS EAST DURING
WEDNESDAY...PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. THIS PHASING IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE A SUB 1000 MB LOW
BY THURSDAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADVANCE...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND QG FORCING WILL IMPROVE OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...CONTINUED LARGE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES /3 TO 4 IN
MOISTURE FLUX AND UP TO 2.5 IN PRECIPITABLE WATER/ ARE STILL
FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY THE 11.12 GEFS DURING
THAT TIME.

PRECIPITATION...LIKELY RAIN...SHOULD BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THAT PERIOD...AND THE GOING POP FORECAST
CORRELATED WELL TO A 11.12 MODEL BLEND FOR THAT PERIOD. OVER HALF
OF THE GEFS MEMBERS DO PRODUCE OVER ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN
CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE
GFS FORECAST BY THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE SHOWS OVER 80 PERCENT OF
THE TOP MATCHING ANALOGS PRODUCING ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID...AND
OVER HALF OF THEM PRODUCE ONE INCH. THAT HIGH MAGNITUDE OF RAIN
FOR DECEMBER IS A TESTAMENT TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
NORTHWARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH THE
WARMTH...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WARRANTING
THUNDER IS FORECAST TO BE ON OUR DOORSTEP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT NEARS.
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 50 IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUN IS SEEN PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE GUIDED THE THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS THE EC
WHICH IS SLOWER BY 6 TO 12 HOURS THAN THE GFS. THE NORTH COMPONENT
ON THE PATH OF THIS LOW IS ENOUGH THAT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FOR
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IS FAVORED TO BE TO THE NORTH AT THIS
TIME...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD DRY AIR SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SO AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST IN THAT
TIME.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING

IZZI

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
HOVERING BETWEEN 025-035. ONCE THOSE CLOUDS MOVE EAST EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE SOME OCNL
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS LIKELY TO ABATE AROUND SUNSET.

IZZI

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS

IZZI

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

MONDAY...VFR.

TUESDAY...CIGS FALL TO MVFR.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PERIOD OR TWO OF SHRA. MVFR LIKELY
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR EXPECTED WITH
IFR POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...VFR.

IZZI

&&

.MARINE...
319 PM CST

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AND A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO...A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE LAKE TODAY. THIS HAS PROVIDED
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...NEW LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HELP SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH GALES POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THESE SOUTHWEST GALES TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THIS
LOW EXITS TO THE EAST AND WINDS DIMINISH TO 30KT. WINDS WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND ON MONDAY THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE FIELD BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM SUNDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
335 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
112145-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
335 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011 /435 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-112145-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
335 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-112145-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
335 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST GALES WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

MTF