Alert archive / Illinois / Flash Flood Warnings in 2011
Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Chicago, IL
NWS Chicago, IL issued this flash flood warning at Jul 27, 2011, 9:51 PM CDT for Winnebago County, Illinois. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 27, 2011, 9:51 PM CDT (02:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 28, 2011, 5:44 AM CDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Chicago, IL
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
County Winnebago County, IL
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4556 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 962 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 141 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 316 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 3.9
- Supercell composite
- 19.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
736
WGUS53 KLOT 280251
FFWLOT
ILC201-281100-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.W.0027.110728T0251Z-110728T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
951 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 600 AM CDT THURSDAY
* AT 946 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR. RAINFALL RATES UNDER THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPROACHED 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN A FIFTEEN TO
THIRTY MINUTE DURATION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EXTENDS FURTHER WEST
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...LOVES
PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...CHERRY
VALLEY...PECATONICA AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
CHICAGO.
&&
LAT...LON 4241 8894 4226 8894 4215 8895 4215 8917
4220 8917 4220 8940 4242 8940
$$
BEACHLER5 follow-up statements
621
WGUS73 KLOT 280358
FFSLOT
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1058 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
ILC201-281100-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110728T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
1058 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY UNTIL
600 AM CDT THURSDAY...
AT 1046 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF WINNEBAGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF WINNEBAGO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT.
DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WINNEBAGO COUNTY...WITH A MEASURED RAIN REPORT OF 1.5 INCHES
RECEIVED FROM ROSCOE IN NORTHEAST WINNEBAGO COUNTY AT 920 PM CDT.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...LOVES
PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...CHERRY
VALLEY...PECATONICA AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...VIADUCTS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
RURAL ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
&&
LAT...LON 4241 8894 4226 8894 4215 8895 4215 8917
4220 8917 4220 8940 4242 8940
$$
RATZER039
WGUS73 KLOT 280532
FFSLOT
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1232 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
ILC201-281100-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110728T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
1232 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY UNTIL
600 AM CDT...
AT 1228 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM STEPHENSON
COUNTY...WEST THROUGH THE DUBUQUE AREA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. DOPPLER
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AND WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL BACK INTO WINNEBAGO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE EVENING BROUGHT 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE WARNED AREA...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...LOVES
PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...CHERRY
VALLEY...PECATONICA AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
&&
LAT...LON 4241 8894 4226 8894 4215 8895 4215 8917
4220 8917 4220 8940 4242 8940
$$
RATZER103
WGUS73 KLOT 280630
FFSLOT
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
130 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
ILC201-281100-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110728T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
130 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY UNTIL
600 AM CDT...
AT 128 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS JO DAVIESS AND
STEPHENSON COUNTIES...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WINNEBAGO
COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS EXTENDED WEST THROUGH
THE DUBUQUE IOWA AREA. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY OCCUR AS
STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS COULD QUICKLY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...LOVES
PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...CHERRY
VALLEY...PECATONICA AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
&&
LAT...LON 4241 8894 4226 8894 4215 8895 4215 8917
4220 8917 4220 8940 4242 8940
$$
RATZER221
WGUS73 KLOT 280732
FFSLOT
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
ILC201-281100-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110728T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
232 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY UNTIL
600 AM CDT...
AT 226 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING ACROSS JO DAVIESS
AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES...EXTENDING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
WINNEBAGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS EXTENDED
WEST THROUGH THE DUBUQUE IOWA AREA. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT BETWEEN BETWEEN AND 2.5 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY OCCUR AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS COULD QUICKLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING.
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...LOVES
PARK...MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...CHERRY
VALLEY...PECATONICA AND WINNEBAGO.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...LOVES PARK...
MACHESNEY PARK...ROCKFORD...ROCKFORD AIRPORT...CHERRY VALLEY...
PECATONICA AND WINNEBAGO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4241 8894 4226 8894 4215 8895 4215 8917
4220 8917 4220 8940 4242 8940
$$
BIRK458
WGUS73 KLOT 281044
FFSLOT
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
544 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
ILC201-281058-
/O.CAN.KLOT.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-110728T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINNEBAGO IL-
544 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF FLOODING WAS OBSERVED PLEASE RELAY YOUR REPORT TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO.
&&
LAT...LON 4241 8894 4226 8894 4215 8895 4215 8917
4220 8917 4220 8940 4242 8940
$$
BEACHLERWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 27, 9:02 PM CDT, 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 9:02 PM CDT, 49 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
840 PM CDT
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS WINNEBAGO COUNTY ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ABUNDANT 0 TO 3
KM CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME BUT
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INHIBITION IS STARTING TO
BUILD. LAST SEVERAL RADAR SCANS INDICATE THAT MOVEMENT HAS STARTED
TO ADJUST TO THE SOUTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH ARC OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALSO APPEARS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
WILL START TO BOW SOUTHESTWARD INCREASING THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. EXTREME RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY IN GENERAL BUT A GOOD PORTION OF THAT WILL PROBABLY FALL IN
LESS THAN THAT. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW SPOTS WILL
RAPIDLY OCCUR WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY QUICKLY
FOLLOWING SUIT. VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO MAY ALSO RESULT ALONG WITH
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING.
MDB
&&
.DISCUSSION...
324 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM AND ATTENDANT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES THURSDAY. MORNING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO THE
EAST HAD STABILIZED THE LOW LEVELS AND LEFT A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA. THANKS TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER MIXING HAS COMMENCED
AND WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FROM EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. APPEARS THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL IOWA ACROSS EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE
80 CORRIDOR THEN ARCS SOUTHEASTWARD AND WASHES OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WITH THE
ZONE OF FASTEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
TONIGHT...POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON THE DISTURBED WIND
FIELD OF THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACED
TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT...MODEL PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH. THIS HAS
BIG IMPLICATIONS ON PLACEMENT OF THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET POINTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL CAP. THIS CONVECTION
WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...WHICH BASED
ON SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A
QUASI-ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX. THIS MAY ALSO
INHIBIT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THANKS TO HIGH
INSTABILITY AGAINST THE BOUNDARY...40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND A GRADIENT OF HIGH SFC-3 KM CAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
WELL. THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...THOUGH
SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN TOUGH TO GET IN THE WARM AIRMASS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
LOOKING AT LATE EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES ALONG IT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXTREMELY HIGH IN THE 2.25-2.5 INCH RANGE. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE EXTREME RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR DEPENDING ON RESIDENCE TIME OF STORMS. WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD
OR SO OF THE AREA HAVING SEEN MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN THIS PAST
WEEKEND AND ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 4+ INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING ...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
LIKELY WHERE THIS HEAVY RAIN OCCURS. WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTH BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS 12Z
GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
AND CONTINUE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH. PICKING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT BUT AT THIS
POINT FEEL THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAVIEST RAIN IS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 88/INTERSTATE 290 AND MAY ARC SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT DOES NOT
PUSH MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY IS THEN AREAS
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND INTERSTATE 88/INTERSTATE 290 MAY SEE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAIN. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE NORTHERN
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY TO MOVE LITTLE
THURSDAY WHICH BRINGS CONCERNS ABOUT ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE BY AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. NAM IS MOST BULLISH ON CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL KEEP THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
DAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE SEE BREAKS
FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THE DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR QUITE YET. IF THE
RAIN DOES PERSIST THEN THE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH DOES LOOK TO TRAVERSE THE
FLOW AND HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
EVENING WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS SO WILL FOLLOW
SUIT AND SHIFT POPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HEAT IS ANOTHER CONCERN BUT WILL HINGE ON PRECIP. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FROM PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE TO
RENSSELAER. CLOUD COVER OR EVEN PRECIP...IF IT OCCURS THAT FAR
SOUTH...WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT IF CLOUDS AND PRECIP STAY AWAY THEN IT WILL NOT
BE TOO TOUGH TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
MDB
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST ECMWF IN LINE WITH GFS...WITH WEAK
SURFACE FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IL SATURDAY.
HIGH H5 HEIGHTS AND WARM AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH BROAD ZONAL
WNW FLOW ACROSS MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. EAST
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKEFRONT BUT LAKE DOESNT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IL NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT WITH CENTRAL
CANADA TROF MOVING EAST AND DROPPING THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE
REBUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE AND HAVE
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN NORTHEAST IL FOR THIS SUNDAY NIGHT. RIDGE
AND HEAT BUILD BACK IN FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW AND MID
70S...RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 OR SO. RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE AREA AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE COMES ACROSS THE RIDGE. LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL
REPEAT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
ALLSOPP
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 02Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PERIOD OF WINDS OF 35 TO 50
KT AROUND 0400 UTC.
* POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 02Z...
A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ROCKFORD MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF 35 TO 50 KT WINDS AS MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. TIMING APPEARS TO BE AROUND 215 UTC AT KRFD...0330 UTC
AT KDPA...0345 UTC AT ORD AND MDW AND AROUND 0415 AT GYY. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE THE VIS POTENTIALLY INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF KORD HAS ALLOWED THE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A POTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO ORGANIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
REGION. LOCAL RADAR IS ALREADY TRACKING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
THESE STORMS LOOK TO THREATEN THE KRFD AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 1
AND A HALF HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
MAY UNFOLD AS SLOW MOVING COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND ITS PLACEMENT...I HAVE
CURRENTLY HANDLED IN THE TAFS WITH MENTIONS OF 5 SM +SHRA WITH CB
GROUPS...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS. KMDW AND KGYY MAY
FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL
TONIGHT...THEREFORE...I DID NOT INCLUDE LOWER VIS AT THESE SITES.
ONCE THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD WE SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDEL ON THE
TIMING OF LOWER IFR VISIBILITIES IN +TSRA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
HIGH...IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE DAY COULD BE DRY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATER
IN THE DAY AND EVENING.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 02Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 0330 UTC.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN 35 TO 50 KT WINDS AROUND 0400 UTC
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR VIS IN +TSRA.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
345 PM CDT
THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO CROSS THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH HALF...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AS OCCURRED
TODAY...THESE COMPLEXES PRODUCE RAPID WIND SHIFTS...AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND WAVES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM A LOW CENTER TRACKING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS. THE FAR SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE
WILL EXPERIENCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE BREEZE...WITH THE
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NEAR SHORE WATERS SEEING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS AS A RESULT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAVES TO BUILD A BIT ON
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
RC
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...NONE.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 4:09 PM CDT, 5 hours 42 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 409 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 282115- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 409 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 /509 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED: THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE: WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM ROCKFORD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA OR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 AND INTERSTATE 290. AREAS SOUTH OF THESE HIGHWAYS HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN IOWA NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE EXTREMELY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY IN IDENTIFYING THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 AND INTERSTATE 290. IN ADDITION...STREAMS AT OR NEAR BANKFULL MAY BECOME FURTHER SWOLLEN AS A RESULT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS FROM PONTIAC TO KANKAKEE TO RENSSELAER WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES UNTIL EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO LMZ740>745-282115- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 409 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE UNDER EXTREMELY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-282115- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 409 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING....AS WELL AS VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE UNDER EXTREMELY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO MDB
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:34 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
934 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0932 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NE ROCKFORD 42.33N 88.98W
07/27/2011 M71 MPH WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA
NEAR I-90 AND RIVERSIDE.
&&
RATZERLocal storm report, Jul 27, 9:37 PM CDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
937 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0933 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
07/27/2011 WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
BRANCHES AND GARBAGE FLYING. ESTIMATED 75 MPH WINDS.
TORRENTIAL RAIN.
&&
ALLSOPPLocal storm report, Jul 27, 9:41 PM CDT, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
941 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 PM TSTM WND GST ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
07/27/2011 E75 MPH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
STATE AND PERRYVILLE.
&&
ALLSOPPLocal storm report, Jul 27, 9:48 PM CDT, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
948 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.14W
07/27/2011 WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES DOWN BLOCKING WESTBOUND LANE OF WEST STATE STREET
NEAR WELDON ROAD. TIME APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
RATZERLocal storm report, Jul 27, 9:50 PM CDT, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
950 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E WINNEBAGO 42.27N 89.22W
07/27/2011 WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL 10 TO 14 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN. ONE POSSIBLY
AS LARGE AS 20 INCHES IN DIAMETER. TIME APPROXIMATED FROM
RADAR.
&&
RATZERLocal storm report, Jul 27, 9:51 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
951 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E WINNEBAGO 42.27N 89.22W
07/27/2011 WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL 10 TO 14 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN. ONE POSSIBLY
AS LARGE AS 20 INCHES IN DIAMETER. TIME APPROXIMATED FROM
RADAR.
0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.14W
07/27/2011 WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA
TREES DOWN BLOCKING WESTBOUND LANE OF WEST STATE STREET
NEAR WELDON ROAD. TIME APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.
0911 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N WINNEBAGO 42.30N 89.24W
07/27/2011 E80.00 MPH WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA
WREX TV STUDIOS.
0926 PM TSTM WND GST ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
07/27/2011 M54.00 MPH WINNEBAGO IL AMATEUR RADIO
25TH STREET AND HARRISON.
0926 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNE ROCKFORD 42.30N 89.05W
07/27/2011 E70.00 MPH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0928 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NE ROCKFORD 42.31N 89.01W
07/27/2011 E80.00 MPH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTHEAST SIDE OF ROCKFORD NEAR NORTH ALPINE ROAD AND
SPRING CREEK ROAD.
0932 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NE ROCKFORD 42.33N 88.98W
07/27/2011 M71.00 MPH WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA
NEAR I-90 AND RIVERSIDE.
0933 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
07/27/2011 WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
BRANCHES AND GARBAGE FLYING. ESTIMATED 75 MPH WINDS.
TORRENTIAL RAIN.
0940 PM TSTM WND GST ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
07/27/2011 E75.00 MPH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
STATE AND PERRYVILLE.
&&
RATZERThe office that day
Everything else NWS Chicago, IL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 8:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Boone, DeKalb, Ogle, Winnebago | 62 min |
| Jul 27, 9:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Boone, DeKalb, Kane, McHenry | 61 min |
| Jul 27, 9:52 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | LOT | 113 min | |
| Jul 27, 10:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Cook, Kane, Lake, McHenry | 80 min |
| Jul 27, 10:39 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | LOT | Lee, Ogle | 7 hr |
| Jul 27, 11:24 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LOT | Cook | 36 min |
| Jul 27, 11:43 PM CDT | Special Marine Warning | LOT | 2 hr | |
| Jul 28, 12:00 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LOT | Cook, DuPage | 60 min |
| Jul 28, 12:11 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Cook, DuPage, Will | 64 min |
| Jul 28, 4:04 AM CDT | Heat Advisory | LOT | DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kane and 6 more | 17 hr |
| Jul 28, 9:28 AM CDT | River Flood Advisory | LOT | Lake | 20 hr |
| Jul 28, 9:28 AM CDT | River Flood Advisory | LOT | Lake | 48 hr |
| Jul 28, 9:28 AM CDT | River Flood Advisory | LOT | Kane, Kendall | 48 hr |
| Jul 28, 9:32 AM CDT | River Flood Advisory | LOT | Will | 48 hr |
| Jul 28, 9:48 AM CDT | River Flood Watch | LOT | Winnebago | 11 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2011Every flash flood warning in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.